Thor Forger

Mostly in Javanese. No, not Javascript!

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

Put Allah first, and you'll never be the last.

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

disabotase aseng gmn org junjunganlu sendiri yg join aseng board of peace dan berhianat ngebedil palestine 🤣 skill issue ya skill issue aja gausa alesan

ttd teman sy yg dipaksa beli merah putih bond @0xrsydn

[- ( - ) @djoniecash2]

Ya mengkonfirmasi teori sy.

Prabowo disabotase asing.

Singapur n china yg paling terkena dampak kebijakan prabowo.

Skrg skenarionya prabowo sdg akan dilengserkan.

Netizen ikut2an dungu bantu manas2in suasana.

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

Astra’s latest auto data tells a simple story: the industry is growing, but Astra is growing slower.

Indonesia’s four-wheel wholesale market expanded 12% YoY, yet Astra’s volume increased only 4% YoY. As a result, market share declined from 53.5% to 49.5%, driven primarily by Toyota’s loss of market share.

The biggest beneficiary continues to be BYD, whose market share increased from 4.9% in 4M25 to 6.6% in 4M26. While still relatively small compared with Astra, the direction of travel is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Chinese manufacturers continue gaining share across global markets through aggressive pricing, competitive technology, and a growing EV lineup.

What is perhaps more disappointing is the strategic roadmap update. After months of review, the conclusion appears to be largely business as usual. That may not be enough.

The global automotive industry is undergoing one of the largest disruptions in its history. EVs, software-defined vehicles, AI integration, autonomous driving, robotics, and new mobility models are reshaping the industry. Yet Astra’s response so far appears largely defensive rather than transformative.

This is particularly notable given Astra’s financial position. The company trades at only 6x forward earnings, 0.8x book value, generates a respectable 13.6% ROE, and offers an 8% dividend yield. At the same time, it sits on a substantial cash balance that could potentially be deployed into new growth platforms, technology investments, venture opportunities, or strategic partnerships.

Instead, investors are seeing limited evidence that management intends to position the company aggressively for the next decade.

Ironically, one of the more interesting developments is coming from Toyota itself. Toyota Kirloskar Motor recently launched its first EV in India, the Urban Cruiser Ebella. However, Toyota is not manufacturing the vehicle itself. Production has been outsourced to Maruti Suzuki, highlighting how even Toyota is increasingly relying on partnerships to accelerate EV development while reducing capital intensity.

More importantly, the launch highlights the challenge facing legacy automakers. The Urban Cruiser Ebella is priced at 2.36 million rupees, approximately 18% more expensive than the equivalent Maruti Suzuki e Vitara despite sharing much of the same underlying platform. Even with a Battery-as-a-Service offering, adoption may prove challenging if consumers perceive limited differentiation relative to lower-priced alternatives.

This may ultimately be the broader lesson for Astra and Toyota. The automotive industry is no longer competing solely on manufacturing scale, dealer networks, and brand strength. Increasingly, it is competing on software, batteries, AI capabilities, user experience, and speed of innovation.

Astra remains a high-quality company with strong cash generation and attractive valuation metrics. The market is not questioning the quality of the existing business. The market is questioning whether management has a sufficiently ambitious vision for what comes next. The share price has declined 32% year-to-date.

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

"Cheap markets stay cheap for a long time when the catalyst for re-rating is political. And politics in Indonesia right now is giving us nothing to work with."

BBCA trading at 11x forward P/E? still has room to single digit f P/E then

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

Valuation-wise, Indonesia is arguably one of the cheapest equity markets in Asia today. Many well-known blue-chip companies are trading at what can only be described as crisis-like multiples despite maintaining healthy balance sheets, dominant market positions, and attractive dividend yields.

BBCA trades at roughly 11x forward earnings and 2.6x book value. Bank Mandiri trades at around 6x forward earnings and 1.2x book value. BRI trades at approximately 7x forward earnings and 1.3x book value. Astra sits at 6x forward earnings. Kalbe trades at 9x forward earnings. Amman trades at roughly 10x forward earnings. The list goes on.

Many of these companies also offer high single-digit dividend yields, with some names approaching double-digit yields. On paper, this should attract significant investor interest. Yet share prices continue to drift lower.

The obvious question is: where are the buyers? Where are all the investors who have spent years believing Indonesia’s long-term potential? Indonesia’s weight in MSCI Emerging Markets remains only around 0.5-0.6%, remarkably small relative to the size of its economy, population, and long-term growth aspirations.

More importantly, where is Danantara? It was presented as a potential new source of domestic capital and a stabilizing force for Indonesian financial markets. If the local market is trading at distressed valuations, this should be the type of environment where a large domestic institutional investor helps establish confidence.

The problem, however, is that cheap valuation alone is rarely enough. Markets ultimately pay for growth.

Indonesia’s core challenge today is not valuation. It is earnings growth. Aggregate earnings growth for the market has slowed materially, with many sectors struggling to generate meaningful expansion. Compare that with South Korea and Taiwan, where investors are being offered direct exposure to AI, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, memory, and high-performance computing. Foreign investors are naturally willing to pay higher multiples for companies whose earnings are compounding rapidly.

Currency concerns add another layer of complexity. Investors are not simply underwriting Indonesian corporate earnings. They are also underwriting the rupiah. If currency depreciation continues to offset equity returns, valuation discounts can persist far longer than expected.

There is also a credibility issue that should not be ignored. For years, many foreign investors have complained that parts of the Indonesian market function primarily as distribution channels rather than genuine capital formation venues. Domestic equity sales teams routinely promote names that later become exit liquidity for local institutions seeking to reduce exposure. Over time, repeated experiences like this erode trust.

The persistent allegations of wash trading, questions around effective free float, concentrated ownership structures, and concerns over genuine liquidity have further damaged confidence. Investors do not simply buy low valuations. They buy governance, transparency, liquidity, and confidence in future earnings.

This is why cheap markets can remain cheap for years. A stock trading at 6x earnings can still fall to 5x. Valuation itself is not a catalyst.

The harsh reality is that Indonesia does not have a valuation problem. It has a growth and confidence problem.

Until investors see stronger earnings growth, more credible policy execution, better market governance, improved liquidity, and a clearer path for capital to generate attractive real returns, low multiples alone will not be enough to attract meaningful foreign capital back into the market.

Cheap without growth is a value trap. Cheap with deteriorating confidence is even worse.

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

@0xrsydn #nyimak

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

market merespon ketidakadilan my quant @primagnesius dgn dumping hard the index

[Mazino @MazinoUrek31]

semoga dengan kejadian kemarin, membuat dek @primagnesius lebih humble, berfikir dampak dari tulisan maupun perkataan, instrospeksi.

Notes : bukan saya yang chat pak sabirin

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

@0xrsydn @TradingDiary2 resiko sok2an akun ganti dadi raiso tak tag 🫵

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

thank you screener dan signalnya pak T @TradingDiary2 🎉🔥
good entry hahaha
#profitloungeCIA

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

kalo udah pernah implement SAP atau ERP utk digital transformation, pasti tau susahnya stock management O2O (offline-to-online vice versa) beserta SOP2 yg harus diubah atau bikin baru. tabrakan semua itu kepentingan2 orang wkawkakwa

[txt keresahan WNI @KapudS640]

Baru banget tadi ke ib*x, mau beli ipad a16 256GB. Dijawab oleh staffnya katanya: maaf kak kosong, adanya 128GB.

Oke. Kami ke luar dr store, duduk, lalu cek ib*x web. Ipad yg kami inginkan ada, dan ready to pick up di store tsb. Lalu kami pesan online dan bayar online.

Kembali ke store tsb, kami pick-up ipadnya sambil kami tanya: kenapa td kok blgnya ga ada stock yg kami mau? Dijawab: soalnya beda stock web sama offline kak.

cc:threadnindya

[Jejak digital. @ARSIPAJA]

Prabowo: "Rupiah begini dolar begini. Orang rakyat di desa nggak pakai dolar kok! Ya kan?"

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

@rsydn9 gitaris austik

[Bloomberg @business]

Indonesia is bragging that it's broken the curse of 5% growth, writes @Moss_Eco. But markets are conveying a more sobering message (via @opinion) https://t.co/vHC7EsWM1C

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

“lakyo nek ndue duit ngko akeh sek ngaku sedulur”

[Jawafess @jawafess]

Menurut pendapatmu pie lur?
Terutama sing urip nang ndeso.

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

@gepengskuy @rsydn9 @yeunrlsd di cl sikik ptro ne

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

@rsydn9 optimus prime

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

@raaawlll akwkakwkw

[Thor Forger @tensorflovv]

@jierkegaard @unmagnetism https://t.co/WHS7ZKmiUV siapa momen

[Amminor ♻ @Amminor_]

Ada seorang laki-laki yang sudah jomblo selama 10 thn. Suatu hari dia bertemu dengan seorang wanita cantik di taman. Mereka saling bertatapan, tersenyum, lalu pria itu pulang karena dia memang ingin pulang.

[Kusa 🐉 🔎🇻🇳 not coming to Phasecon 2026 @LPT_kusa]

This also happen in Vietnam and i hate it
Im already fucking hungry, and after see them I feel jealous of them. Now im hungry and lonely

[Agus Mulyadi @AgusMagelangan]

Bukti nyata bahwa track Jogja-Wonosari adalah tempaan alam yang pas buat melatih skill racing. 🔥