TenYearSiege

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[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@Mid30sManhattan The smartest guys I know are better looking than their spouses. Being a chode with a hot wife sounds like fun until you realize she walks around town carrying your nuts in her purse.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

They're selling dollars for 83 cents

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@MarieReinhh4ak @doctormorphh It's fine. Like everything else, it works for a little while but eventually gets less effective. Definitely not a miracle drug.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@beaniemaxi For the record, I hope I'm wrong.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@beaniemaxi This is a maximally stupid take. Evan Spiegel has no regard for shareholders. Higher share price would require maturity & character, 2 traits that Evan might as well be allergic to. A lesson that has served me well in life: "when someone shows you who they are, believe them"

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@bad_investor_ You said it yourself - "buying the company means an acquisition premium, debt, and other obligations" Abel looked at the company, and decided the IP was the only thing worth paying for right now. Maybe an acquisition is in the cards, but not at current prices.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@beffjezos The same could be said about developing software. Why spend 1 month coding it this year when you could code it in a single day next year?

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@RuFiOooooh @cozenom Reality will end up at $500.

The market is confusing concerns about the profitability of big AI labs with the profitability of serving models.

Big AI labs might be toast but demand for open source models could keep growing *and* still be wildly profitable for hardware.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@TAftermath2020 @altcap @TrumpAccounts @InvestAmerica24 How much was it?

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@livefreejim @kylelangham Bro you suck ass at probability

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

Will be interesting to see if Anthropic keeps up the ethical AI / effective altruism bullshit when they're spiraling into insolvency. Wouldn't be surprised if all hell breaks loose.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

AI agents are solving math problems that have stumped mathematicians for years.

I asked Fable to pay a parking ticket and it quit halfway through.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

Respectfully disagree that stocks with $100bn have no alpha.

Every so often, the market gives a layup opportunity on mega caps.

The best example this year is $PANW trading below $150 at the start of the year with saaspocalypse. Anyone with a brain can tell you that security is a very different kind of Saas than ERP.

Enterprises will never vibe code their security posture.

AI is making vulnerability discovery exponentially faster every year and malicious actors will never stop fighting to keep one step ahead.

In all honesty, $PANW is probably still undervalued at the current price.

When a major cyber incident occurs $PANW is going to look like $MRNA circa 2020

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@JackRFulton @jonwu_ This is true, although, it's hard to argue that support functions like IT and HR most certainly drag ass.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@jonwu_ Is it true that banking and consulting clients are really less portable? Bankers and consultanting partners switch shops all the time.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@orrdavid This post is nonsense word salad.

It clearly wasn't written by AI, so that's something, but if you think we've reached peak demand for intelligence and you're not using AI for *everything*, you're in for a rude awakening.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@rrhoover Agentic retail commerce is a pipedream. Amazon won't allow agents. Is it realistic to believe that they will be disintermediated anytime soon?

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

Respectfully disagree. The banks will fight tooth and nail to keep agents out. They won't be alone, as you point out, Amazon doesn't want outside bots either. Each platform wants their own bot to be the de-facto standard. The most likely outcome is legislation that gives platforms control of the access and permissions that bots have. Wouldn't be the first time the govt intervened on behalf of incumbent special interests. Best example of this is cable TV - congress overwhelmingly passed laws in 1992 requiring cable systems to carry most local channels.

https://t.co/YYkuaxGgqw

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@TMTLongShort @LukeGromen Gold seems like a solid bet, until you realize that the economics of alchemy will be solved, just as the economics of artificial diamonds were solved, and the price cashes to the floor.
https://t.co/xp3Cj0TLzM

[Marathon Fusion @MarathonFusion]

Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.

Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.

Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.

[TenYearSiege @TenYearSiege]

@orrdavid Maybe. But in hyper-competitive markets, value is asymptotic. The $100b+ datacenters will be occupied by those who gain an edge from marginally better performance (e.g. HFTs), and other adversarial zero-sum competition (e.g. discovering/countering cyber exploits)