Teodor is associate professor in the IR, EU foreign & security affairs, eastern neigh., Romania's fp, @cesuaic @UAICiasi. Coordinator @RoSecProject @eurintconf
Happy to share our latest article published in @EurAsiaStudies on Romania’s perceived power & influence in the eastern neighbourhood. @bogdan_ibanescu https://t.co/KZ9ZCk9v5c
@DrRadchenko@camille_grand@nfergus Wait. I'm afraid it's an inconsistency here since in Diplomacy (1994) HK argues that for the US true European autonomy is either unnecessary, because European interests are best secured through the Atlantic Alliance, or counterproductive. So, which one is it ultimately?
@GerardAraud Agree. But this should also say something about France's ability to communicate this well/convincingly. Was it something about the message or in fact something about the messenger that didn't click? What can you say after a thorough and honest decades-long introspection?
This insight challenges conventional understandings of EU conditionality effectiveness and refines the concept of hedging by specifying the conditions under which hedging transforms from pragmatic balancing into a tool for authoritarian entrenchment. 4/end
Very happy @EGozalishvili and I managed to pull off this publication in @CA_Survey, where we come up with a new term, '𝗽𝘀𝗲𝘂𝗱𝗼-𝗵𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴', to explain #Georgia's recent foreign policy actions⤵️
https://t.co/z9AhkdfxNH 1/
We use 𝗽𝘀𝗲𝘂𝗱𝗼-𝗵𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 to argue that when autocratic consolidation coincides with accelerated integration prospects, hedging operates under an inverted incentive structure:increased external accommodation paradoxically enables greater deviation from conditionality 3/
Much like he did in the spring and summer, Zelensky will lean heavily on the Europeans—Starmer, Macron and Meloni especially—to convince Trump step back from the course he’s now on. The strategy worked earlier in the year. Will it work again? (1/5) 🧵
Ukraine faces a classic Catch-22 of war termination. It can reject the 28-point plan because it demands giving up the Donbas without a fight. Yet by continuing to fight, a potentially worsening military position by 2026 could allow Russia to seize more of the Donbas—or all of it—removing a key obstacle to a ceasefire and leaving Ukraine with the same end result on worse terms. And still, Kyiv cannot simply abandon the Donbas without a fight.
@generalkellogg Put pressure on Russia, general. Remind Mr President that waving his photo together with Putin in front of cameras is a bit distasteful. Not to mention the promised signature.
Les Européens n’ont qu’à s’en prendre à eux-mêmes de la perspective d’une rencontre entre Trump et Poutine pour mettre un terme à la guerre en Ukraine. Ils ont été incapables soit de soutenir fermement ce pays soit de présenter une position de négociation réaliste.
@BrookingsFP#NATO How do you see the future of the MK Black Sea air base, near Constanta, Romania, which is being under development (the planned DL is 2032) considering the current budget constrains in the USA and plans of the current US administration to reduce military personnel in Europe?
@BrookingsFP#NATO Re European security: how does the current US administration perceive the importance of NATO's eastern flank? And, in particular, how do the current Trump administration see the role of Romania at NATO’s eastern flank?