Mike Harrington

Just a man from Atlanta sharing his political thoughts with the world

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@AmarionWx Oh yeah I think the senate face is a done deal. It's always been the margins for me. I kind of expect if Ossoff is approaching 6-7% then I think most Statewide Dems win because of low GOP turnout

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

The fact that so many 2028 contenders have just chosen Keisha to be their claim to fame is hilarious and good for us GA people. Rick Jackson's money can't compete with the political ambitions of 10 different White Male Democrats

[Riley Bunch @ribunchreports]

NOW: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear says the Democratic Governors Association is throwing another $5 million at Keisha Lance Bottoms’ bid for governor in the final stretch ahead of the election. #gapol

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@AmarionWx Lol good I need him to lose more than Walker did. Any Ossoff win >5% is a good day for me and probably all GA statewide Dems lol

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@RaineTaye @DjsokeSpeaking Yeah looking at Georgia Votes by congressional district and State HD you can tell the Dem districts with the more liberal voters these redder counties are popping off more than the GOP and more rural ones

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@consumebenadryl @DjsokeSpeaking Yeah that's not surprising to hear how they get because the county is swiftly diversifying with Indian population and spillover from Fulton now. I won't be surprised if Forsyth goes 60-40 or 55-45 Rep/Dem in 2028. I still think it's 70-30 though for 2026

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@Urban8845 @DjsokeSpeaking Pretty much though I'm pretty comfortable saying that unless the rural counties turnout a lot more this week KLB becomes a stronger favorite and Jackson has to hope for good persuasion to win

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@Urban8845 @DjsokeSpeaking Not particularly. The White vote share I think will continue to come under 2022 and 2024 by 4-6% every day even as the Black vote share comes down slightly. I think the final electorate ends up somewhere around 56-58% White vs 28-31% Black

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@looking_finding I still question how much NW GA is catching up because if you look at the turnout by State HD the bluer/suburban HDs of Forsyth and Cherokee are higher than some of the more rural/Red HDs so that catch up could be coming from the 30% vote share that will go to KLB and Ossoff

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@Urban8845 @DjsokeSpeaking Collins, absolutely yes. Jackson, toss-up but the race would lean KLB if the electorate stays close to or similar to the way it is today. Other statewide races I'd say are tilt-Dem probably

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@AmarionWx I agree it'll be narrow but only because I feel any non-incumbent won't win by more than 1-3%. I'm still struggling to see who these Dem-leaning split-ticket voters would be, especially hearing the NPR interviews with Marietta voters who are all said they're straight-ticketing

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@AmarionWx Yeah and those rural congressional districts look ghastly. But maybe all these split-ticket voters in suburban and urban ATL I keep hearing the media talk about will compensate for the rurals lacking so much 🙃🙃

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@NumanHaocyc @emarion1234 @xHaustedOfStats @DjsokeSpeaking The dashboard stopped updating around 2pm and only started updating again around 8pm EST so there was a lot of votes rolling in later in the evening. Most of the afternoon was stuck at 65k votes and now we're at 116k for Saturday's totals

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@DjsokeSpeaking Maybe I'm over-simplifying this but Kamala only lost GA by ~2% with abysmal EV splits between White-Black voters. And I just don't see many Black-Metro ATL Dems/Dem-leaning Indies voting Ossoff-Jackson so at what point does Jackson start sweating bullets?

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@Jon__KoA @Socdem_Michael He definitely will. And even in 2022 the majority of people who split their ticket were GOP who hated Walker. I don't think there's many Dems/Dem-Indies who think that poorly of KLB to do the same especially with Ossoff on the ballot who is endorsing and appearing with her

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@AmarionWx The fact that non-ATL youth white voters more than doubled Metro ATL white youth and he still only won them by 9% makes me think KLB will be fine and do much better with them. I've yet to find any data that looks good for Jackson yet honestly