I get asked all the time: โAt what price would you approve a SpaceX-Tesla merger?โ
There is no price.
There is a method.
Hereโs exactly how the proposal gets built โ from the fairness opinions to the fixed exchange ratio shareholders will vote on, and why July makes sense.
Last night, the @AFThunderbirds flew a massive hometown aerial tribute across Las Vegas, Nevada, including the Hoover Dam. This flyover is just one part of the incredible celebrations already underway as we approach Americaโs 250th birthday later this week!
@TheTeslaBull Mendy?
Sandy?
So this grumpy man's Sunday pleasure is driving a Roadster alone in the Santa Barbara afternoon sun, before he returns being grumpy. Oh well ...
Wanted to keep you updated on the below, and thank you for your overwhelming interest in my research and rabbit hole frenzies. ๐ฐ
Let me start with the obvious: I fully trust Tesla's Board to negotiate any potential merger agreement thoughtfully and to secure a transaction that serves the long-term interests of all Tesla shareholders.
The topics I am trying to model with Grok are all intended to narrow down the exchange-ratio and step by step to incorporate these questions:
- would it be a merger of equals (with the goal of an approximate 50/50 ownership) or a pure market-cap relationship?
- what would happen to the Tesla outstanding share count, as the current 3.76bn shares include about 400m restricted shares from the 2025 comp package that would in large part be forfeited as "not reached", except if the Tesla Board negotiates differently. One tranche is just above 35.3m shares. If 11 of the twelve are forfeited, this adds about 9% value for TSLA shareholders in a merger of equals. (see chart below). It would have a more indirect, smaller impact in a pure market cap merger scenario.
- how much premium is needed to win the Tesla shareholder vote?
- how much premium would be justified to compensate giving up Tesla's single share class?
So many questions, it will be fascinating to see an announcement.
Genuine question:
Shall I write a "wishlist" what I hope Tesla's Board negotiates in a merger negotiation?
Or you have had it with me writing on the topic "merger"?
@dvorahfr Can only share my own experience, and I have played with secondary accounts: I post all on my main account. Some of it is very research driven, some is just commentary, some is personal stuff that you would expect more on IG or FB. Makes my life easier, so that's that.
To be clear, Iโm not saying the Grok v9 foundation model will be mind-blowingly better than anything, but it will be a solid workhorse in the same league as Opus.
And the SpaceXAI cadence of model and harness improvement is speeding up tremendously, particularly due to a few dozen of the top Starlink/Starship engineers shifting a much of their time to AI.
Worth noting that the v8 foundation (Grok 4.3) model is a 0.5T model that finished training all the way back in December and has many fundamental flaws, so Grok 4.5 will feel like a gigantic upgrade!
@ProfRobAnderson So true and I doubt that any international people understand how different law is in each US State.
For European it seems more natural that Portugal has different laws than Norway. But it's a common misunderstanding that Texas would be the same than Delaware ๐๐
There are already 420,000 signatures to Save Europe!!
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@SaveEuropeAct@EvaVlaar Thank you for your work. Soon it will be +1,000,000 signatures.