Texas Tropics

Tracking the tropical Atlantic, emphasis on the Texas Gulf coast.

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

NHC still giving SW Atlantic AOI a 10% shot. What model support there is is very weak. DeepMind has completely dropped it. Elsewhere there is zero, zilch, nil ⚽️ going on. #Tropics #Tropicalwx #ElNiño

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

SW Atlantic AOI down to 10%. Models losing interest, particularly DeepMind which was once strong on it, now about to drop it entirely. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

Fresh lemon just dropped in SW Atlantic. AI models particularly DeepMind with strongest signals. Operationals not on it yet. Euro has things very dry in the timeframe Google is slamming this thing into Georgia. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

@JonnyTheWX Technically correct as El Niño threshold wasn’t achieved until August, but ‘86 is still considered an El Niño season. Late June was a plus neutral though.

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

40th anniversary of Hurricane #Bonnie, the last hurricane to make TX landfall in June and the only hurricane to strike Texas in an El Niño year (since 1950). #OTD #WxHistory #TXwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

@Morzignis_Zero Don’t know what crawls up your ass but it’s easily found in the HURDAT database.

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

175 years ago today (June 25, 1851) the very 1st official tropical storm which became the very 1st official hurricane, in the very 1st official hurricane season in the #HURDAT databse, makes the very 1st official landfall, in Texas, near Matagorda Bay. #OTD #WxHistory

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

Things very quiet and expected to stay that way for a while. CPC map is clean thru mid-July. Models showing nothing of significance at the moment. #Tropics #Tropicalwx #ElNiño

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

Back to all quiet with nothing in the foreseeable future. #Tropics #Tropicalwx #ElNiño

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

Remnants of #Arthur reformation chances have dropped to nil. ⚽️ Now back to our regularly scheduled Super #ElNiño talk. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

East Coast AOI (remnants of #Arthur) still
at 10%. ECENS the only models hanging on right now and it’s got members dropping. Can never rule out Gulf Stream effects but this isn’t looking too likely to redevelop at the moment. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

Part 3? Remnants of #Arthur have a chance to redevelop off the east coast late in the week into the weekend. Euro ensembles showing the strongest signals with GEFS coming around. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

#Arthur has been downgraded to a post tropical low. Arthur is the first 1st storm of the season to make Texas landfall since Allison whose 25th anniversary was recognized 12 days ago. #TXwx #Tropics #Tropicalwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

TS #Arthur is said to have made landfall in Matagorda County, TX. Since that update 2 hours ago the center appears to be near Galveston Bay. Strong shear continues to keep convection far away from center. Strange storm. Looking forward to TCR. #TXwx #Tropics #Tropicalwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

The NHC pulls the trigger and Tropical Storm #Arthur is born. Going to be a shortie for sure. #Tropics #Tropicalwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

@JonnyTheWX That doesn’t bother me as much but you’re right. A PTC is not a cyclone and probably shouldn’t be numbered like it is. Perhaps use the recently retired Greek alphabet for these? PTC Alpha?

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

I’ll just put this out there.

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

#PTC1 dealing with strong westerly shear pushing convection far east of the center. Formation chances have dropped to 60% as shear should remain in play. Inland rain building back up this morning along mid to upper TX coast. Flooding still the main threat. #TXwx #Tropics

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

#PTC1 about to see sunset. Latest NHC plot has it right at the coast. Satellite showing some midlevel swirl to the west moving almost due south. Vorticity is actually stacked pretty well, it’s just elongated. Rainfall really diminished over land. #TXwx #Tropics #Tropicalwx

[Texas Tropics @TexasTropics]

#PTC1 technically becomes our 1st cherry of the year. Now at 70% chance of formation. Looks like a fun day across most of the Gulf coast. #TXwx #LAwx #Tropics #Tropicalwx