TF Metals Report

Turd Ferguson is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent handle on the gold and silver markets.

[TF Metals Report @TFMetals]

Here's a link to this year's macrocast. If you're interested in following the precious metals in 2026, please take time to look this over and then join us at TFMR!
https://t.co/aAhupp3QxX

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Personal update:

I am launching a mining-focused fund.

Miners are likely one of the most compelling investment themes of the next decade, in my view.

For more information:

[email protected]

For accredited investors only. As always, none of this is investment advice.

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

😂

[TF Metals Report @TFMetals]

updated....

[TF Metals Report @TFMetals]

If today feels familiar, you're right.
After the massive smash of Monday, every morning this week brought gold-positive economic news and every morning this week saw a rally followed by a sharp reversal before the London PM Fux.

[TF Metals Report @TFMetals]

At TFMR, we call it the BLSBS. Today is another lesson why.
The data is consistently terrible and misleading.
August huge miss with downward revisions. September massive beat with upward revisions. October huge miss with downward revisions.
The whole thing is arcane and useless. Maybe a switch to quarterly reports would help? I have no idea but I do know that the current methodology and monthly reporting is a farce.
It's a shame that @RealEJAntoni wasn't given a chance to fix it.

[TF Metals Report @TFMetals]

If today feels familiar, you're right.
After the massive smash of Monday, every morning this week brought gold-positive economic news and every morning this week saw a rally followed by a sharp reversal before the London PM Fux.

[Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" @LawrenceLepard]

LL: Yes it could Mr. President.
Saying the quiet part out loud. And you don't think gold and bitcoin are going to moon?

[jim iuorio @jimiuorio]

This has got to stop. Needs to be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent….

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

France-Germany 10Y spread less than 40bps away from taking out sovereign debt crisis highs. Europe once again on the verge of the abyss, and desperately in need of QE although soaring inflation means "nein"

[Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet]

Most people don’t yet grasp what is happening in France. Markets are pricing French sovereign debt as junk, rating agencies will eventually have to follow. This will have two major impacts:

1. Most French banks are already rated at or just below the sovereign, so a move toward junk would likely drag domestically focused lenders with it. Credit to households and firms would slow sharply, hurting the economy and widening the fiscal deficit even further, a vicious cycle.

2. For the ECB, the constraint is legal as well as financial. A fall below investment grade would force sales by ratings-bound investors while making any backstop harder to justify under current rules.

The next euro crisis will begin in France. The first, which began in Greece, will feel like a walk in the park compared with what comes next.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Jobs Huge Miss: Sept Payrolls Plunge To Just 29K, Below All Estimates As July Revised Negative https://t.co/5iA4JtXhsD

[Oliver Groß @minenergybiz]

Didn't expect that - zero impact..
Critical metals stocks remain under pressure: VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF hit a new 52-week low yesterday..

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

We're now getting the usual dynamic when the Euro zone blows up. As yields for high-debt places like France and Italy head off into the stratosphere, yields for low-debt safe havens like Germany, Sweden and Switzerland are falling. The Euro zone is broken.
https://t.co/HIlymWsz4u

[TF Metals Report @TFMetals]

At TFMR, we call it the BLSBS. Today is another lesson why.
The data is consistently terrible and misleading.
August huge miss with downward revisions. September massive beat with upward revisions. October huge miss with downward revisions.
The whole thing is arcane and useless. Maybe a switch to quarterly reports would help? I have no idea but I do know that the current methodology and monthly reporting is a farce.
It's a shame that @RealEJAntoni wasn't given a chance to fix it.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Jobs huge miss:

September nonfarm payrolls 29K, Exp. 90K, Last revised lower to 133K

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Wild.

US and China’s combined money supply is surging almost as fast as it did during the Covid stimulus madness.

That is a 10% increase in just 12 months!

Let that sink in.

https://t.co/yijFtMxLWq

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Something different today also with the 2-year yield and the dollar.

Either all aboard US assets, especially tech, or first signs of risk off.

[The Sting @TheStingisBack]

Police Squad! was cancelled after just six episodes.
ABC claimed the humour was too dense and fast-paced for ’80s viewers to follow. TV Guide called it “the stupidest reason a network ever gave for ending a series.”
The Naked Gun movies reused many of the same gags and made $477M

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

THE GLOBAL BOND SELL-OFF IS ABOUT POLITICAL CRISIS

In the groupchats I’ve been seeing more “So, what’s going on with interest rates?” In today’s newsletter I offer my view.

It’s about the growing domestic political political problems engulfing the world’s richest countries

[Stick to the Model @StickToTheModel]

Every fanbase swears the refs screw them

Here's every flag in crunch time since 2018

Are you getting robbed or getting bailed out?