Kacper Piotr Kaminski

Trader & Investor | Founder of Cerlogic
Markets Research Network.

Sharing positions, trend alerts, and insights in equities, metals, energy, FX & agriculture.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

https://t.co/6F6BnCHESr

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@PeterLBrandt 3) I don't jump before the signal.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@pratjoey Tech is pushing higher, just about one thing that's working :)

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Something different today also with the 2-year yield and the dollar.

Either all aboard US assets, especially tech, or first signs of risk off.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Forex - something is different today

Swiss Franc divergence. It's the favorite funding currency now.

Nothing serious yet, but in the event of more global carry unwind, this is what I'd be watching as the first signal.

table via TradingView $CHF $EUR $USD

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

$NKE - Nike

Many consumer stocks look like that.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@somecuriousgirl Could be, doesn't have to be :) mostly because of the dollar, it should be easing, it's not.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@NatanRotschild It may :)

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@futviewer45 2-year or DXY?

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@Noalgos Can't slow down. It it does, it'll go straight down, imo :)

Either up up, or down down.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Anything can happen in markets .. I get it now. 😉

Chart for the history books, $TLT now lowest since inception in 2002, clear break down.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Beatings will continue until .. heh, you know well by now. $TLT

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@Altemajor I agree, that's why we only enter in uptrends, and we never hold downtrends.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Nothing ever repeats, but .. it's good to remember. 🙂

In the final phase of the https://t.co/f2sXm9N0MK bubble, we had Nasdaq and the dollar rising together. The capital was flowing into the USA like never before.

The last rally in $QQQ was close to 100% and took roughly only 4 months, incredible times. Then came the crash, the dollar sold off, and it took 16 years for the Nasdaq to recover.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@Altemajor Bu were also generational buying opportunities around 2000 in commodities :)

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@veg_man08 Me too, happy to see that.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Fun with charts. 🙂

Nasdaq to M2 Money Supply. $QQQ

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@veg_man08 It was bottoming, roughly flat during the bubble, and then started a decade long bull market.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@Antoine04848656 Depends on the type. Here it's about certain forex carry trades, not much to do with equities.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Forex - something is different today

Swiss Franc divergence. It's the favorite funding currency now.

Nothing serious yet, but in the event of more global carry unwind, this is what I'd be watching as the first signal.

table via TradingView $CHF $EUR $USD

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

New quarter - First moves

All aboard US, and US tech, good move in oil stocks as well. Lots of selling in international equities, we can see that in forex as well.

Let's see the next few days. $QQQ $XLE $EFA $EEM

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

New quarter now - Q4 2026

Watching what they buy today, tomorrow, and early next week. It's often that the sectors with relative strength will continue for a while. $XLK $XLV $XLE

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@sarobertson_ It is.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@CaptainCovid1 Just about 5.75% max here, for now, needs to digest this move.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

"I am the house now" - anonymous
Sep 8, 2026

$TLT

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

@doralimohamad Yes, I think so.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Someone tell the dollar. $DXY

Table via TradingView

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: Fed now projected to "maintain" interest rates next month

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

$MXN - Mexican Peso already in full carry unwind.

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @CerlogicFounder]

Forex - something is different today

Swiss Franc divergence. It's the favorite funding currency now.

Nothing serious yet, but in the event of more global carry unwind, this is what I'd be watching as the first signal.

table via TradingView $CHF $EUR $USD