TFTC Clips

Fan account for TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

[TFTC Clips @TFTC_Clips]

Blackstone's boss says AI investment is anything but a bubble. Others say a bad midterm could burst it.

@profstonge gives the third answer: yes, it is a bubble — the question is where in it you are. Overlay the AI semis on the dot-com day for day, Netscape IPO against ChatGPT, and you land around 1998.

Said in June 2026. TFTC episode 764.

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Markets are now pricing roughly 60% odds of a Fed hike.

@Sorenthek on what the bond market does when you cut too soon: the vigilantes are back, and they say you're not done fighting inflation. There are two ways to fight it — raise short-term rates, which we stopped doing, or let long-term rates rise.

TFTC episode 670.

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Strategy's mNAV cracked below 1 this week, and the buying stopped.

@_Checkmatey_ in February on where this ends: the treasury company trade is the 2026 version of the miner capitulation. Some consolidate, a bunch capitulate, a few phoenixes rise from the ashes — but it is not an FTX-grade send-it-all-to-zero event.

TFTC episode 713.

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A leaked customer list is not a data problem. It is a target list.

@martybent on France, where holders are made to declare Bitcoin on tax forms that are then public: you have handed the people willing to break the law and physically harm someone a list they can work through.

From the conversation with Lauren Rodriguez, TFTC episode 742.

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You cannot export-control maths.

@KyleOlney on why the non-American models converge on the frontier eventually no matter what Washington does: the technology is a probabilistic engine running over text, and you can't classify probability. You can't classify plain text either — not without full-blown censorship of speech.

TFTC episode 759.

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One trade is now the whole tape.

@jvisserlabs on Torsten Slok's line that the entire economy is AI now: the investment-grade issuance is funding the build-out, the stocks leading the market are the build-out, the margins are the build-out. And build-outs run in cycles — the debt market freezes, deleveraging starts, and you get a dot-com.

TFTC episode 753.

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The Fed's box, in one question.

@MelMattison1 on what happens when the government funds itself at the front of the curve and runs trillion-dollar deficits: you either let the bond market blow up, or you sacrifice the currency. Inflation is the second option.

TFTC episode 771.

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Japan's long end moves first. Everything else follows.

@peruvian_bull in May on the January auction that broke: 30 and 40 year JGB yields jumping 30 to 40 basis points in hours, US Treasuries following within the day, and a government whose spending plans had just been locked in by an election.

Full conversation on TFTC, episode 747.

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The AI bid is not a threat to Bitcoin mining. It is a better offer for the same power.

@tylerkstevens on why the large on-grid miners have no answer to it: their whole model is operating costs below Bitcoin revenue, the machines keep getting more efficient, and for a public company the pivot to AI is a fiduciary duty rather than a choice.

Full conversation on TFTC, episode 765.

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A treasury company that can't sell stock has one asset left to sell.

Ryan Lane on the bloated ones: when the trade collapses and you're trading near or below NAV, the expenses don't stop. You can't issue shares without diluting Bitcoin per share — so the Bitcoin goes out the door to pay for the company.

Full conversation on TFTC, episode 699.

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"Strategy's annual dividend liability is around $600 million. Just a couple of weeks ago, they raised $500 million in a week on their MSTR stock."

@PunterJeff on the machine behind the preferreds — and why a convertible bond hands the buyer a short on day one.

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"They're going to use all the water. It's going to drive up your electricity costs. It's just so uninformed bullshit."

@jamesmcavity, who builds mining data centres, on the campaign against the build-out — and why he thinks you cannot put the genie back in the bottle.

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"Sometimes politicians in developing nations like it a little too much and try to squeeze the golden goose."

Bitcoin mining is now about 30% of Paraguay's power use. Kent Halliburton of Saz Mining, who mines there, on what those high-tension lines were carrying before anyone could use it — and on the one thing that actually threatens it.

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"What I wanted to hear was these people talking to the OGs about why you want to come along and make into this marriage with Wall Street and the government."

@EricBalchunas on the pitch nobody makes: every argument is aimed at people who are not in Bitcoin yet, and none of it is aimed at the ones being asked to hand their coins over.

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Somebody rang round the people running the AI data centres and asked how they were going to make money.

"All of them said we have no idea, this doesn't make sense to us, but everybody's doing it so we just figured somebody else had figured it out."

@Gary_Brode on TFTC #715.

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"They need the Federal Reserve and they need a big Federal Reserve balance sheet."

Michael Howell of @crossbordercap on why shrinking the balance sheet is not actually on the table: dealer balance sheets have halved since the GFC while federal debt went up four or five times. Every emergency intervention costs credibility.

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"Bitcoin is developing towards quantum resistance, regardless of your level of concern or my level of concern."

@reardencode on what the quantum panic keeps missing: BIP 360 is advancing because it is a good change for Bitcoin on its own terms, and it moves the network that way anyway.

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"Offshore dollar is a different beast."

@LeveredUSTs on the eurodollar: a patchwork of IOUs outside the Fed's reach, with nothing holding it at par. Every global slowdown from 1982 to 2020 froze dollar settlement and left the onshore economy paying increasingly costly bills to bail it out.

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James Check on what breaks the bitcoin treasury trade:

"If your stock goes below one, it's just hard to dilute shareholders... You're rotating out of your winner into your loser."

The engine only runs while the premium holds.

[TFTC Clips @TFTC_Clips]

Brandon Bailey (@bitcoinbeezy) on why the market kept mispricing the miners:

"You basically had the market not believe that they had any real potential of converting to AI compute, which created a massive opportunity."

One signed lease repriced the megawatts.