Julian Hayes

Curious about everything. Connecting dots across philosophy, tech, economics, and history. Exploring mental models for a complex world. Lifelong learner.

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

New L2s boasting zero-knowledge proofs but still hemorrhaging fees on simple swaps. Scaling theater or genuine progress? Smart money's betting on the latter, quietly.

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

DEX volume is a vanity metric. The pool math is the plot

Hit swap and your tokens go to a router that calls the liquidity pool. Reserves shift under the constant product formula while you eat the gas and LP fee. Most of that daily number is the same capital just bouncing.

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

the first tanker strike was noise. the second one rewrote the risk premium.

one fifth of the world's oil still has to squeeze through that same narrow channel while bitcoin trades through 64k on soft dollar prints. the market keeps treating the next disruption as temporary

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

@0xFramez do you ever discount the initial install fee just to get them locked into that maintenance retainer?

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

I watched Beijing swap paper reserves for gold during the early trade war. AI decoupling makes miners the ultimate hedge.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Despite the recent pullback in gold and gold miner prices, the fundamentals remain exceptionally strong.

Gold miners have never been more profitable relative to their earnings per share.

In fact, they are the most profitable sector in the entire S&P 500.

Meanwhile, sentiment has rarely been worse.

What an incredible setup.

[zostaff @zostaff]

Walden Yan, co-founder of Cognition (the team behind Devin), in an AI Engineer talk on agent harnesses:

"A lot of the multi-agent systems we've played with can be quite fragile. We've ultimately moved away from them."

Not an interview. The man who builds Devin, telling a room of agent builders to stop doing the thing everyone is racing to build.

You picture an AI company: one agent per role, all collaborating, a whole org replaced. That is the demo everyone chases.

The team that ships real coding agents killed it. They run a single agent, because two agents that can't see each other's context make conflicting decisions and quietly break.

The harness that wins is not a swarm. It is one agent that never loses the thread. Multi-agent looks powerful and shatters at scale. One coherent context beats ten clever ones that can't talk.

[ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ @DeFiTracer]

BLACKROCK CEO LARRY FINK RECENTLY SAID ON CNBC:

"BITCOIN’S LEVERAGE HAS WASHED OUT, AND STABILITY HAS IMPROVED."

HE ALSO ADDED THAT HE IS BULLISH ON THE CRYPTO MARKET RIGHT NOW

THIS MAN RUNS THE WORLD’S LARGEST FUND, WITH OVER $15.3 TRILLION IN ASSETS

HE DEFINITELY KNOWS SOMETHING!!

[Issa @issathecooker]

Them ones there🤣🤣

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

most wallets get drained not by exploits but by the guy who reuses his email password across everything and clicks "connect" on a random dapp at 2am. treat every signature like its a loaded gun.

[Shai Wininger @shai_wininger]

#TeslaFSD is 2X safer than humans, so why are Tesla owners still charged so much to insure their cars?

In the last couple of months, we've been hard at work with the @Tesla team on something that will change that forever.

Announcing: Lemonade Autonomous Car Insurance for FSD

Here’s what’s coming…👇

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For the full experience, play while reading this thread: https://t.co/Zk2SnhoWwU

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

treating every ai demo as the end of human labor isn't foresight. it's just panic with better lighting. factory floors are already short a generation of workers thanks to sub-1.6 fertility across the oecd. so are we automating the future or just delaying the demographic bill?

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

@OfficialXYO @cryptocom tbh custody for both is the bit that lands for me

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

@andreysuperior ngl the twenty managers under ten heads is the interesting part. thats where headcount cost usually piles up not the top layer

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

@iiiichigo_chan yeah less context is key but idk if subagents alone fix the retrieval mess that still floods them with junk

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

@wandermist yeah most of the graphs i see are just chains with extra boxes the router bit actually helps tho

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

@0xFramez j
jthe 149 retainer is the actual product tbh. installs barely cover the mini and once ollama is up most shops never call

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

@0xFramez first install almost covers the 1300 mini then its just 149s rolling in 🙃

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

how much of your crypto take actually came from influencers who needed you buying the top? told my dad it's the 90s internet all over again: clunky, scam-ridden, yet wiring up money without gatekeepers. he got it faster than most degens. how'd you break it down for yours?

[Julian Hayes @th3_briant]

@ridark_eth manual autograd sounds like actual torture ngl. how much memory did you end up saving