Thayer Moeller

NC native: NYC & SF survivor, now safely back home. Complex problems enthusiast: physics degree into asset management. Politics, culture, and cycling junkie.

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

Why do people have this point of view only as it applies to sports? Why not other markets like weather derivatives or prediction markets in general? Plenty of people gamble on financial securities (look up "YOLO" trade ideas on Reddit) and yet no one suggests we should take those at massive rates...

[JD Vance @JDVance]

Henry Nowak died the same way a civilization dies: abandoned, handcuffed by authorities who neither trusted nor cared for him, and accused of hate crimes he did not commit. His murder is as tragic as it is enraging. He should still be alive today, and he would be if the last few generations of European elites had stood their ground against the politics of self-hatred and the mass invasion of migrants, many of whom despise the West and the people who love it.

Henry was far from the first to so needlessly lose his life, and I fear he won’t be the last. Each time a life like his is lost, the proper response—the only response—is righteous anger. One of the most important things the Trump administration has proven to the world is that stopping the flow of mass migration and defending national sovereignty is a matter of political will and leadership. Anything else is an excuse.

It is because we love the West that we want to preserve it. We love our civilization. We love our country. We love our children. And nobody—nobody—should ever die the way that Henry Nowak died. May God comfort those who loved him, and may God rest his soul.

[Konstantin Kisin @KonstantinKisin]

Britain had a moment of silence for George Floyd. Our politicians kneeled en masse to show their outrage at his killing. "I can't breathe" became a slogan.

George Floyd died on the other side of the world. He wasn't British.

Henry Nowak *was* British and his treatment by the police was shocking and negligent in the extreme. Yet there is no minute of silence. There is no coordinated public campaign. There is no kneeling at sporting events.

And we all know why.

During the summer of BLM, some people said "All Lives Matter". This was treated as the highest form of racism and anyone who said this was immediately cancelled. Why? Because the people in charge don't actually think all lives matter in the same way.

They have created a racial hierarchy of victimhood where a career criminal who died through mistreatment by police in a foreign country with 0 evidence of racism like George Floyd is automatically sanctified because of the colour of his skin.

And Henry Nowak, a British man, one of ours, is automatically dismissed and ignored because of the colour of his.

This is the ugly fruit of so-called "anti-racism", an obsession with race that has created a two-tier society which treats people differently because of the colour of their skin.

This needs to stop.

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

@bonchieredstate Don't show them our GDP per capita either. Spoiler alert, energy consumption is gonna be strongly correlated to economic productivity...

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

@srkntnyldz How do you know she was pregnant? She doesn't appear visibly pregnant to me. Should the cops have given her a pregnancy test first?

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

@laflammerouge16 @BenjiNaesen @EFprocycling Well, the Giro isn't the Tour - why should teams pretend it is? Where does it stop? Would you say the same thing about O Gran Camino?

[Sean Davis @seanmdav]

Tillis voted for a $500,000 per senator fund for senators who were illegally spied on by the Biden. It wasn’t available to any normal Americans whose rights had been violated—just senators. But now Tillis is mad that actual American citizens might receive restitution. What a clown.

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

@theblaze No, that’s called “taxes”.

[Pat Stedman | Dating & Relationship Coach for Men @Pat_Stedman]

On January 6th I followed the crowd into the Capitol and shouted. Police stood by the whole time, hanging out with us and sometimes directing us places.

At one point near the House Chambers I was walking downstairs when a trio of some special section, secret service looking men started pointing guns in my direction.

Confused and annoyed, I walked the other way and when I saw a normal police officer asked him why they were doing that.

He informed me a protestor (Ashli Babbit) had been killed, and advised me to leave the building.

I walked towards the exit and after a short rest on the bench I left.

I harmed nobody and damaged no property that day and complied with all police orders.

What I received for that was a pre-dawn raid at my parents house, where my 1 month post-partum wife and I were staying, on Biden's first day in office. His DOJ had signed the order to arrest me 3 hours after his inauguration.

In the subsequent weeks I received death threats online and harassing phone calls, something that would be ongoing for the next few years.

I was banned from Meta and Paypal. My wife and I were both debanked by PNC and banned from Airbnb. My wife was detained at the airport for hours with our newborn daughter.

I was charged with 4 misdemeanors and the 1512 unconstitutional felony. The government offered to drop the misdemeanors if I pled to the felony. The felony was a lie, so I refused and went to trial.

At trial the prosecution for 2 days straight was allowed to show footage to the jury of things that occurred around the Capitol I wasn't present for "for context." When we asked to put forward footage that contradicted the prosecution's "context" we were not allowed. They could show what they wanted, we could not.

Police officers were then put on the stand for the next 2 days who cried about their experiences. I had no idea who they were. They admitted they never saw me or interacted with me.

Nevertheless like every other J6er, I lost, and was sentenced to 4 years and $22k in fines and restitution. Yet even after the Supreme Court overturned the felony, the judge would not let me out until my misdemeanor sentences of a year were maxed out. Because she can't count she actually kept me in longer - to the extent she intervened at the last minute to make the prison release me on a Sunday, something that is against BOP rules. My family sat outside the prison gates the Friday before practically the whole day waiting in vain because of this pettiness.

But the government wasn't satisfied with their pound of flesh: after my release they took me back in for resentencing, to attempt to have me resentenced after the fact to my misdemeanors consecutively, so I'd be taken from my family again and have another 1.5 years behind bars. This time I won, as they had no legal precedent and it skirted on violating double jeopardy since I had served my full prison time. Even still, it cast a cloud over the holidays and cost me another 20k my family couldn't afford.

People ask whether prison was bad, and yeah of course prison sucked. It was a hard and violent place. I was present for a stabbing, and was lucky to avoid two fights and a race war.

But dealing with Biden's DOJ and the DC Judiciary was the real trauma - they would grind down your spirit by weaponizing the legal system and use the endless procedure to bankrupt you. I had nightmares for months after release that I had somehow been hit with new charges.

By the time I was pardoned by President Trump, I had spent literally every single day of Biden's presidency either in prison or under some form of supervision. I had incurred over $300k in legal fees and over $1 million in lost business.

It was a reign of terror, and yet it was a mere foreshadowing of what they had planned for anyone else who opposed them under Kamala. The country should never forget it.

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

But that’s not what you said, right? Regardless, they also found the impacts are short term. And, what happens when we win a tariff war? Would you disagree it’s better for countries to remove asymmetrical trade barriers that negatively affect the competitiveness of domestic US products?

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

@AmazonWoman22 @babaken_0 @KobeissiLetter Ask the SF Fed, 150 years of inflation data says tariffs are deflationary.

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

@babaken_0 @KobeissiLetter Do you understand the purpose of the tariffs? To make our products more sellable overseas... Does this outcome not demonstrate exactly that? China is buying our planes and farm products?

[Sama Hoole @SamaHoole]

For anyone who still hasn't had the memo:

- Oatmeal = sugar
- Quinoa = sugar with a marketing degree
- Brown rice = sugar wearing a tiny bran cardigan
- Wholewheat bread = sugar that went to a wholesome photoshoot
- Sweet potato = sugar the wellness influencers agreed to forgive

"Complex carbohydrate" is one of the great triumphs of food branding. It sounds like something that takes effort to break down. Something virtuous. Something earned.

It's a chain of glucose molecules holding hands. The chain breaks in your gut within minutes. By the time it crosses into your blood, it's the same glucose as a spoon of table sugar.

Your pancreas has never once read a label. It doesn't care that the oats were steel-cut, organic, and recommended by a man in running shoes. It sees the glucose. It pumps the insulin. Same response. Every time.

The packaging is for you. The bloodstream isn't fooled.

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

This is the appropriate level of distain for the media.

[Álvaro J @jota_snchez]

Larry Ellison acaba de hacer la única pregunta que ningún periodista en la Tierra puede responder.

Un periodista del Wall Street Journal le dijo a la cara a Larry Ellison que Elon Musk no sabe lo que hace.

Ellison no discutió. No se alteró. Solo hizo una pregunta.

Ellison:
“Este tipo aterriza cohetes sobre plataformas robóticas en medio del océano… ¿y tú dices que no sabe lo que hace? ¿Alguna vez has aterrizado un cohete?”

Una sola pregunta. Sin posibilidad de recuperación.

Ellison:
“¿Quién eres tú? ¿Por qué debería creerte a ti antes que a mi amigo Elon?”

Esta es la pregunta que toda la clase mediática lleva una década esquivando:
¿Quién eres tú para juzgar?
¿Qué has construido?
¿Qué has lanzado?
¿Qué problema has resuelto que no implique un teclado y una fecha límite?

Ellison:
“Ahí estás tú, delante de tu Apple Macintosh, escribiendo un artículo diciendo que Elon es un idiota.”

Se sientan detrás de un portátil que no diseñaron.
Usan una red que no construyeron.
Funcionando sobre chips de silicio que ni siquiera pueden explicar.
Para decirle al mundo que el hombre que envía humanos al espacio no sabe lo que hace.

Nunca han construido nada más pesado que un documento de Word.

Y aun así lo publican con absoluta certeza.

Eso es lo que debería inquietarte.
No la crítica.
Sino la confianza con la que la hacen.
La ausencia total de autoconciencia necesaria para juzgar disciplinas en las que no durarían ni un semestre.

Musk no opera en opiniones.
Opera en la capa física del universo, donde las matemáticas funcionan… o el cohete no regresa.

Sus críticos operan en un editor de texto.

Construyó el vehículo que transporta astronautas de la NASA a la Estación Espacial Internacional.
La constelación de satélites que lleva internet a zonas de guerra activas.
El coche eléctrico que obligó a todos los fabricantes del planeta a abandonar sus planes basados en motores de combustión.

Sus críticos más ruidosos construyeron una firma al final de un artículo.

Entonces… ¿por qué tanto odio coordinado?

Porque perdieron la correa.

Los ataques no aumentaron porque Musk empeorara como ingeniero.
Aumentaron porque compró X.
Abrió el algoritmo.
Le devolvió la plaza pública a la gente.
Y destruyó su capacidad de controlar lo que puedes pensar.

No odian al ingeniero.

Odian que el ingeniero les quitó el monopolio.

No puedes cancelar un cohete.
No puedes publicar un artículo contra la gravedad.
No puedes editar las leyes de la física.

Ellos controlan la narrativa.

Él controla la física.

Y uno de los dos va camino a Marte.

[Sama Hoole @SamaHoole]

Activist: "Beef uses an obscene amount of water. Fifteen thousand litres per kilo."

Farmer: "Where did the water come from?"

Activist: "What?"

Farmer: "The fifteen thousand litres. Where was it before it was on the bill."

Activist: "I don't know. A river?"

Farmer: "The sky. About ninety-four percent of that figure is rain that fell on the field and got drunk by the grass. The cow ate the grass. The rain was on its way down whether the cow was here or not."

Activist: "But it still counts as water used."

Farmer: "By the grass. Which would have used it whether I farmed or moved to Spain. The cow isn't commissioning the rainfall. The rain isn't on the cow's payroll."

Activist: "Then just don't have the cow."

Farmer: "The rain still falls. The grass still drinks it. The water cycles back into the air anyway, just without anyone getting fed in the middle."

Activist: "It's not that simple."

Farmer: "It's rain, grass, cow, river. Or it's rain, grass, rot, river. Same circle, fewer dinners. Meanwhile every almond in your milk took a gallon of pumped aquifer water in California to grow. That one you might want to worry about. The rain in Wales is doing fine without your concern."

[Ana Mostarac @anammostarac]

I've met quite a few billionaires and none of them had an umbrella guy

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

@DoctorLemma Did this man get paid? Seems like he should get a substantial royalty. Pharma companies likely charge a fortune for this product…

[Thayer Moeller @thayermoeller]

@StatisticUrban And why would reducing land use for agriculture be a good thing? 🤡

[Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47]

.@POTUS on Ilhan Omar: "I believe she married her brother, which is totally illegal — although, it’s a lovely couple, actually, but it’s a little bit on the illegal side."

"'Darling, I love you very much.' 'Goodnight, brother. Let’s go to bed' — Isn't she despicable?" 🤣