Olivia
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Agam.
@theAgamSharp
football tactics analyst & bettor
Joined June 2020
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2.7K Followers
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Honestly don’t know what else to say about Enzo Fernández after that.
That was the type of performance you fall in love with a player for. Enzo was always on the ball, fighting for it, moving it and giving us a reference point. Especially after the Foden red card, everybody in midfield had to take on more responsibility.
He never appeared to be trying to make the play. Just constantly scanning, picking out the next pass, helping City breathe when United were pushing and then being involved in the winner as well.
And I know I'm probably going to glaze him to death this season but I really fucking love watching this guy.
What a footballer. 🤌🏼
Spain -1.5 -137/1.73 ✅✅
12/11 UEFA Nations League:
Spain -1.5 -137/1.73
Czechia are an easy fade right now. They’re pointless after four Nations League games, have scored only twice in four matches and failed to find the net in two of their last three and they’re also missing Sadilek through suspension. Spain are the opposite profile and have four wins from four and the model gives them 2.33 xG to 0.59. The market is pricing Spain around 1.61 on this line and I’m getting a better number which is where the value is for me. Main risk is rotation. Spain’s midfield isn’t at its best and several substitutes could start but even a changed XI has more quality than a Czech side that can’t create chances. If Spain score early, Czechia have to come out and the game opens up for a margin.
Italy/France o2.5 -145/1.689 ✅✅
Game state read was spot on. Italy had to chase the win and France were always going to have opportunities in transition. The cagey-game narrative never made much sense given the incentives. Comfortable winner.
12/11 Nations League:
Italy/France o2.5 -145/1.689
Everyone’s treating this as a cagey game because France keep grinding out 1-0s on the road and I get it. But the incentives are off. France only need a draw and Italy need the win so Italy have to come out and that opens the game both ways. Italy have conceded in all four of their group games and five of the last six between these two had 3+ goals.
12/11 Nations League:
Italy/France o2.5 -145/1.689
Everyone’s treating this as a cagey game because France keep grinding out 1-0s on the road and I get it. But the incentives are off. France only need a draw and Italy need the win so Italy have to come out and that opens the game both ways. Italy have conceded in all four of their group games and five of the last six between these two had 3+ goals.
12/11 Nations League:
Italy/France o2.5 -145/1.689
San Marino/Belarus o2.5 -155/1.645
Czechia/Spain o2.5 -189/1.529
England/Croatia o2.5 -234/1.427
Feeling goals across the card tonight. Italy have to chase the win, San Marino concede a lot and Spain and England should get theirs early.
12/11 Nations League:
Italy/France o2.5 -145/1.689
Everyone’s treating this as a cagey game because France keep grinding out 1-0s on the road and I get it. But the incentives are off. France only need a draw and Italy need the win so Italy have to come out and that opens the game both ways. Italy have conceded in all four of their group games and five of the last six between these two had 3+ goals.
12/11 UEFA Nations League:
Spain -1.5 -137/1.73
Czechia are an easy fade right now. They’re pointless after four Nations League games, have scored only twice in four matches and failed to find the net in two of their last three and they’re also missing Sadilek through suspension. Spain are the opposite profile and have four wins from four and the model gives them 2.33 xG to 0.59. The market is pricing Spain around 1.61 on this line and I’m getting a better number which is where the value is for me. Main risk is rotation. Spain’s midfield isn’t at its best and several substitutes could start but even a changed XI has more quality than a Czech side that can’t create chances. If Spain score early, Czechia have to come out and the game opens up for a margin.
@freesidbitches Those who know, know. 💣
12/11 UEFA Nations League:
Spain -1.5 -137/1.73
Czechia are an easy fade right now. They’re pointless after four Nations League games, have scored only twice in four matches and failed to find the net in two of their last three and they’re also missing Sadilek through suspension. Spain are the opposite profile and have four wins from four and the model gives them 2.33 xG to 0.59. The market is pricing Spain around 1.61 on this line and I’m getting a better number which is where the value is for me. Main risk is rotation. Spain’s midfield isn’t at its best and several substitutes could start but even a changed XI has more quality than a Czech side that can’t create chances. If Spain score early, Czechia have to come out and the game opens up for a margin.
Ellyse Perry has committed a crime against T20 batting today. 19 off 32 and she's dragged the entire innings to a standstill.
@CricketTamizhan she is waiting for power surge to statpad
Woke up thinking Karolina Muchova was free money
Woke up thinking Karolina Muchova was free money
8/11 La Liga:
Atlético Madrid/Barcelona BTTS + Over 3.5 +100/2.00
Barca’s profile is built for this. They’re at +34 goal difference with only 12 conceded which is about 4 goals scored per game and they play a high line that gives up transition chances even when they control the match. Atletico are one of the best teams in the league at punishing that. They’ve won 9 of 11 and have a home crowd and they need this result to stay in the title race so it’s hard to see Simeone sitting on a 0-0. The sides have scored against each other in five of their last six meetings so the BTTS leg has real support. Market has this priced like a Barca rout but the price on 4+ goals with both teams scoring gets me a better number than either leg alone.
8/11 La Liga:
Atlético Madrid/Barcelona BTTS + Over 3.5 +100/2.00
Barca’s profile is built for this. They’re at +34 goal difference with only 12 conceded which is about 4 goals scored per game and they play a high line that gives up transition chances even when they control the match. Atletico are one of the best teams in the league at punishing that. They’ve won 9 of 11 and have a home crowd and they need this result to stay in the title race so it’s hard to see Simeone sitting on a 0-0. The sides have scored against each other in five of their last six meetings so the BTTS leg has real support. Market has this priced like a Barca rout but the price on 4+ goals with both teams scoring gets me a better number than either leg alone.
8/11 EPL:
Chelsea ML +113/2.130
Brighton ML -103/1.970
Ipswich Town or Draw -103/1.970
Aston Villa or Draw -141/1.709
Gvardiol gets caught in possession by Jair who capitalises to put Forest ahead for the 1st goal.
— City's distances are far too big leaving Gvardiol without immediate support.
— Forest screen the central passing lanes restricting his options.
— Gvardiol makes the decisive individual error but City's collective build-up structure makes the situation unnecessarily difficult.
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