Cameron Jones

PhD Student
Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison

@ManCity and @UWBadgers fan

@UWSurveyCenter Research Assistant

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

Things will almost certainly get better - not necessarily because of Pep, but just regression to Pep's mean. When I hear commentators say "Pep's figured it out", I'll try to keep in mind that any season of any club necessarily has wild ups and downs, regardless of manager.

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

The bright side of City's terrible form is that it inspired me, for the first time in a long time, to put together a little data vis project!
You don't need the graph to know how bad things are, but I think it puts it in perspective compared to previous within-season variation.

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

As a modern City fan, I've experienced the highest possible highs during Pep's valiant fight against the inherently chaotic bounce of a soccer ball - so I would have no right to complain if we have a couple *seasons* of this, let alone two months of this.

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

@Tiffanysara @MidwestMAPOR Congrats Tiffany!

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

While I did find evidence to support my preconceived notion of "extra time is boring", I found it with faulty assumptions.

I find: Conditioned on getting there, goal scoring actually increases in extra time! (and, more importantly... always check your statistical assumptions!)

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

After watching a number of World Cup games go to extra time and then penalties, I wondered... is there evidence for a difference in goalscoring rate in regulation versus extra time?

Using FBRef data over the last two cycles to investigate, I found interesting results. (Thread!)

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

Avoiding those assumptions (as the data suggests we should) limits our sample to a paired test exclusively on the games which went to extra time. And on these games, we draw an entirely different conclusion; goal-scoring rate increases in extra time!

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

@AndreAndersson4 @osynligahanden Also consider City have won the title with much lower percentages pre-Haaland. 16% in the last two seasons for KDB and Gundogan as top scorer, right about where Munich are on this graph.

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

An oft-recited cliche is that teams need a "proper number 9" to find success... but the data doesn't support this! Using data from the top 5 European leagues this year, I find no relationship between share of goals for team's top scorers and points per game.

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

@AndreAndersson4 @osynligahanden This is true; but it is worth noting that all but one of the runner-ups and the (eventual) Bundesliga champ are in this low % cluster.

[Cameron Jones @theOptamist]

@skylanderr5 @iMiaSanMia @SkySport Thanks for the inspiration! Check out my latest post... it can't be quantified particularly whether a team is playing with a "#9" at any given time so I proxy it with share of goals for top scorer. Doesn't seem to matter to points per game.