Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate

22+ yrs in DFW real estate. Calling 2026 = 2006 with data. List it or sell as-is, I'll tell you which. YT @thesicilianbrothers

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

2026 looks like 2006. I was in this business then. Here's what I'm seeing in DFW right now 🧵

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@zerohedge Same story in construction. Budgets went up, but nobody's building more houses. Just paying more for the same lumber, labor and lots. My take: that's inflation, not growth.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@KobeissiLetter When most of the S&P is in a bear market, the stock wealth propping up move-up buyers goes with it. My take: watch high-end listings sit longer first, then it trickles down.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@jasonlewris List high, cut 20%, fall out of contract, relist. That's a seller who hasn't accepted the market yet. Seeing the same playbook in DFW, just with fewer zeros.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@realestatenews My take from DFW: the first rung broke when starter homes stopped penciling for builders. Land, lots, fees, labor. Fix the cost to build and the ladder fixes itself.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@elonmusk Same in roofing. The guy who disappears with the deposit after a storm always had the saddest story at the kitchen table. Check the license and the reviews, not the sob story.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@reviewjournal High prices plus high rates means builders blink first. My take from DFW: watch for incentives and rate buydowns before you see real price cuts. Ask what the incentive is hiding in the price.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@zerohedge Every time NYC sheds jobs, I end up meeting a new neighbor in DFW a few months later. My opinion: Texas growth is mostly people getting priced out somewhere else.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@realestatenews Lower price beats lower rate. You can refi a rate someday, but you can't refi what you paid. My take: buy the payment you can afford at today's rate, because waiting for a cut is a hope, not a plan.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@zerohedge In DFW the middle class already pays it. It's called the property tax bill. My take: whoever you tax, it lands on the renter at the next lease renewal.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

I live in Plano, so this one's close to home. About 1,000 SAP jobs moving from Plano and Allen to Addison. My take: companies are consolidating, not adding space. Office landlords who lost the tenant feel it first, and so do the lunch spots around them. https://t.co/00JuxLEzXp

[Colliers Texas @Colliers_TX]

SAP is consolidating its North Texas offices, moving about 1,000 workers from Plano and Allen to Addison’s Spectrum Center by mid-2027.

Billy Vahrenkamp and Dylan Smith of Colliers represented SAP in the lease transaction.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@Houstonomics Zestimate told you what a house was worth. It couldn't tell you what the roof, foundation and carrying costs would eat. My take: buying is the business, pricing is just a guess. Any flip lives or dies on the repair bid and the hold time, not the algorithm.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@KobeissiLetter Refiners having their best year on record, and the rest of us are paying for it at the pump. My take: high gas is a big reason inflation is heating back up, so I wouldn't plan a home purchase around rates falling soon. Buy the payment you can carry today.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@jasonlewris 6.7% nationally already asking less than they paid, and that's before commissions and closing costs. My take: a lot more 2021-22 buyers are underwater on a sale than the sticker shows. Thin equity is fine until you have to sell.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@VladTheInflator Run the payment math and the 45% stops sounding crazy. My take: prices don't have to crash for that gap to close. Flat prices and rising incomes for a few years does it too, just slower. If you need to move now, buy the payment, not the crash prediction.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@NewsLambert Collin and Grayson on that list hits home for me in DFW. My take: when entry-level builders are the ones saying it, watch the incentives, not the sticker. Rate buydowns and closing credits are a price cut with better PR. Negotiate off the real number.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@nypost Inflation heats up the day after the Fed pauses. My opinion: they should be raising, but nobody touches rates before the midterms. If you're buying, plan around today's rate. Waiting for a cut with inflation running hot is a hope, not a plan.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@trdny @samlounz Leverage looks like genius on the way up. Then one change of control and creditors can call $112M at once. Same lesson whether it's malls, a 65-story tower or one rental: if the lender can call the loan, you don't fully own the deal.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@MichaelLagazo The sign out front says Wendy's, but the guy paying rent is the franchisee. Before I'd call that rent safe, I'd want the store's own sales vs. rent, who guarantees the lease and how many units that operator runs. The brand name doesn't pay you.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@elonmusk By 2100 we'll have probes exploring other galaxies, and some HOA will still be fining a guy over the color of his mailbox.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@unusual_whales 3.6% and speeding up from last month. In my opinion that's not the setup for cheap mortgages anytime soon. If you're buying in DFW, buy the payment you can carry at today's rate. Any cut later is a bonus, not a plan.