Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate

22+ yrs in DFW real estate. Calling 2026 = 2006 with data. List it or sell as-is, I'll tell you which. YT @thesicilianbrothers

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

2026 looks like 2006. I was in this business then. Here's what I'm seeing in DFW right now 🧵

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

I live in Plano, so this one's close to home. About 1,000 SAP jobs moving from Plano and Allen to Addison. My take: companies are consolidating, not adding space. Office landlords who lost the tenant feel it first, and so do the lunch spots around them. https://t.co/00JuxLEzXp

[Colliers Texas @Colliers_TX]

SAP is consolidating its North Texas offices, moving about 1,000 workers from Plano and Allen to Addison’s Spectrum Center by mid-2027.

Billy Vahrenkamp and Dylan Smith of Colliers represented SAP in the lease transaction.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@Houstonomics Zestimate told you what a house was worth. It couldn't tell you what the roof, foundation and carrying costs would eat. My take: buying is the business, pricing is just a guess. Any flip lives or dies on the repair bid and the hold time, not the algorithm.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@KobeissiLetter Refiners having their best year on record, and the rest of us are paying for it at the pump. My take: high gas is a big reason inflation is heating back up, so I wouldn't plan a home purchase around rates falling soon. Buy the payment you can carry today.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@jasonlewris 6.7% nationally already asking less than they paid, and that's before commissions and closing costs. My take: a lot more 2021-22 buyers are underwater on a sale than the sticker shows. Thin equity is fine until you have to sell.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@VladTheInflator Run the payment math and the 45% stops sounding crazy. My take: prices don't have to crash for that gap to close. Flat prices and rising incomes for a few years does it too, just slower. If you need to move now, buy the payment, not the crash prediction.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@NewsLambert Collin and Grayson on that list hits home for me in DFW. My take: when entry-level builders are the ones saying it, watch the incentives, not the sticker. Rate buydowns and closing credits are a price cut with better PR. Negotiate off the real number.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@nypost Inflation heats up the day after the Fed pauses. My opinion: they should be raising, but nobody touches rates before the midterms. If you're buying, plan around today's rate. Waiting for a cut with inflation running hot is a hope, not a plan.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@trdny @samlounz Leverage looks like genius on the way up. Then one change of control and creditors can call $112M at once. Same lesson whether it's malls, a 65-story tower or one rental: if the lender can call the loan, you don't fully own the deal.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@MichaelLagazo The sign out front says Wendy's, but the guy paying rent is the franchisee. Before I'd call that rent safe, I'd want the store's own sales vs. rent, who guarantees the lease and how many units that operator runs. The brand name doesn't pay you.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@elonmusk By 2100 we'll have probes exploring other galaxies, and some HOA will still be fining a guy over the color of his mailbox.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@unusual_whales 3.6% and speeding up from last month. In my opinion that's not the setup for cheap mortgages anytime soon. If you're buying in DFW, buy the payment you can carry at today's rate. Any cut later is a bonus, not a plan.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@zerohedge Data centers are the biggest construction story in Texas right now. When the financing gets shelved, the subs, the crews and the housing demand around the site all wait too. My take: a headline isn't a groundbreaking until the money closes.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@TopStockAlerts1 Prices slipping while rents climb tells you who's stuck. People who can't afford the payment to buy stay renters, and rents go up. My take: a rental with solid cash flow is a better hold right now than selling into a slow market.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@anttsinc The $158 a month is never the number that hurts. It's what the HOA hasn't saved for. Roofs, roads and drainage all wear out on a schedule. My take: read the reserve study and the last 2 years of minutes before you buy. Thin reserves mean a special assessment is coming.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@NatMortgageNews @NMNBrad More down payment programs means more buyers with zero equity on day one. It gets them in the door, but it doesn't help them make the payment. We learned in 2006 what happens when nobody has skin in the game.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@great_martis Caterpillar sells yellow iron. When construction and mining slow down, the diggers sit in the yard. Pricing it like an AI stock was always going to end this way.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@DallasAppraiser Good PSA. I see investors buy as a "primary" for the lower rate and smaller down payment, then rent it out. Works until the lender calls it a default. If it's a rental, buy it as a rental and make the numbers work at investor terms.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@MichaelLagazo Loan maturity, easy. Term and escalations are in the lease, so you know them. The maturity date is when the lender decides your fate. Plenty of owners are about to find out their refi isn't happening at today's rates. A refi is a hope, not a plan.

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

Day 1 on the new Seagoville, TX flip: emptied out and gutted to the studs. Cracked brick and fascia are next. Follow along. 🔨

[Tony Sicilian | DFW Real Estate @theTJSicilian]

@anttsinc This is why the discount on a pre-foreclosure has to be bigger than the repair bill, not just bigger than retail. Ceiling cracks and sloping floors mean a foundation bid before you write any offer. Price the fix first, then the house. Cheap is not the same as a deal.