TheAllocator

Chief Investment Officer, Asset Allocator. Macro PM. News and data junky. Previously MD & Global Head of Asset Allocation at HSBC. Ex BlackRock and JPM

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@KonstantinKisin Wealth tax is clearly a very poor idea. Economics of envy may feel good but ultimately reduce growth and increase unemployment. UK needs deep supply side reforms not feel good economics.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@robin_j_brooks Highly dependent on Hormuz. Given decline in strategic oil reserves in US and China the potential upside to oil is higher. That said, not sure Trump has the stomach for that ahead of mid terms.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@AIExplainedYT Really enjoy your work. Would love to catch up on wider AI implications — is there a contact email or preferred route?

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@AnnieJacobsen Clear evidence that the US defence industry is being challenged on a cost benefit basis.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@sofius Not real.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

Couldn’t agree more. At this point there is only one truly independent CB: the ECB - due to the fragmented EU political structure.

CB independence has unfortunately always been an illusion. That said, we should support independence at each turn as political incentive structure for interest setting is too skewed to the downside.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@rickygervais Congrats!

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@igorsushko Check this out for context: https://t.co/QgdATCMmyJ

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@biancoresearch Would add that this is also due to a deterioration of USTs. In relative terms, IG spreads should tighten on this view as they may represent a diversified pool of capital with strong balance sheets...
More interesting question: could spreads go negative?

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@robin_j_brooks Germany has a decent lead correlation to the rest. Should we take this as a positive or false signal?

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

Argentina is easily the most interesting economic story of the decade. Would expect many politicians around the world will face challenges from similar political movements if @JMilei is successful across more than one election cycle. Plenty of countries need deep structural reforms. Question is how much pain needs to be felt before it is attempted. #EconomicGrowth

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@martinwolf_ The UK needs deep structural supply side reforms. Productivity gains are hard, take a long time and risk being unpopular due to near term destruction in the hope of long term creation.

Here is a fairly good plan for fixing the UK economy:

https://t.co/2FHnh3ZiMZ

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@robin_j_brooks @Lysander_20 Watch WTI Brent spreads. US can always implement export ban or restrictions. Trump is US first.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@robin_j_brooks Point is that this would be a Brent rather than WTI price risk. One tanker is nothing but it would have serious implications on insurance premiums in the Gulf.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@GovtofPakistan To be honest, this was not on my 2025 bingo card.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@elonmusk @elonmusk Honest question: what is your prediction for when this will happen? Your median projection, not Elon-time projection.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

Honoured to have the distinct pleasure of interviewing @nfergus at the SFO Alliance Conference in London today. Have read all of his books and is a long term fan of his work. Very thought provoking discussion with one of the greatest intellects of our generation.

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@RyanMcbeth Proof that golf is 20% outfit, 80% lost balls

[TheAllocator @the_allocator]

@PeterBerezinBCA Comparing it to number of people works if you have stable demographics. We do not. Looks a bit different if compared to growth in younger population.