TheCounterFactual

Formerly Bernard Woolley. Now free to express my own views. Also some football.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

I took my child to the Children's Hospital. The staff were wonderful. All was good. But while I was waiting I talked to the security staff. I had seen two outside and asked why.

I was told that there were actually 8.

One on every entrance. Four to support

Cont...

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@PBistow @RussellEngland @vivamjm @LiamFox Who are "they"?

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@RussellEngland @vivamjm @PBistow @LiamFox Do you agree with the OBR? That 4% figure comes from a bunch of projections from before we left.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@ArchRose90 Hard to disagree with this. Brexit had an impact, but these structural problems are much weightier.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

Pretty obviously, as I said earlier. It's also obviouusly more complicated than that. Brexit hit the UK economy negatively. I'm trying to get people's honest thoughts on exactly how high they think UK growth would have been. I think 6-8% is too high.

I can tell you don't want to engage with the substance of my original point, though. So as I also said earlier, it's been nice chatting to you.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@vivamjm @PBistow @LiamFox Thank you. Nice chatting to you.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@PBistow @vivamjm @LiamFox 🤣🤣

I suspect that's as far as this conversation can go. Nice chatting with you.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@vivamjm @PBistow @LiamFox Agreed! Hence me wondering what people think the UK's growth rate would have been inside the EU.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

I'm comparing UK growth with theoretical UK growth.

Obviously UK growth was hit by Brexit. And the EU's was too, to a lesser extent. That's not the pint i was making. I'm trying to gauge how much people think UK growth would have been over the last few years if we had stayed in.

And as you haven't replied to the substance of that point I will assume that you agree that the UK's growth would have been that high.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@PBistow @LiamFox It has. By 1.3% (8.2% to 6.9%). So a 6-8% hit means that the UK economic policy during that time should have delivered 14% growth over the period, but for Brexit (compared to Germany's 2%)?

If you think so, that's fine. But I do not know many people who think so.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

Just to nuance the GDP figures a bit... Labour's budgets thus far have front loaded spending and back loaded (small) cuts. So we should expect to see a Keynesian boost to the economy around now. Which we have. It isn't reflective of the wider health of the economy or government finances. Construction, hospitality etc are all shrinking as taxes and regulations bite.

The other significant boost is from AI and computing. The UK would do well not to over-regulate that by doing something foolish like becoming a rule-taker to a regulatory superpower....

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

A good breakdown of where that growth is coming from.

[Peter McCormack 🏴‍☠️🇬🇧🇮🇪 @PeterMcCormack]

Unfortunately Matthew will use 0.7% as spin without telling you the important details behind this.

Headline - it’s ugly.

Government consumption and investment was roughly 80% of the net increase:
- Government services: +£0.96bn
- Government investment: +£3.46bn
- Total GDP increase: £5.55bn

In the private sector computing grew 4.4%, but this is on the back of an AI and tech boom, in other words, it would have happened anyway.

Things that government policy directly impacts:
- Construction fell 0.7%
- Education fell 0.5%
- Food & beverage services fell 1.9%

Anyone with half a brain knows that GDP growth alone doesn’t prove higher productivity or better living standards.

We absolutely need sustained growth in the private sector and productivity.

We’re fucked if we rely on increased state spending. This is how countries destroy themselves.

But this is what socialists want, an entirely managed economy and dependent class.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@BBCBreaking Good news! Achieved in spite of, not because of, Government policy.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@JBfootyfc Ouch

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@EULondonMark Almost none of UK companies export goods to the EU. They shouldn't be burdened by new EU regulations.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@_Gottalovezik This may be Michael Carrick's greatest legacy 🤣

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@TorstenBell If life expectancy keeps going up, then yes. That is fair.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@tomhfh I mean... yes.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

A Government should balance the budget. This year. Not maybe in 5 years' time.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

Every version of FM I try to buy Joshua Kimmich. FM27 will be no different.