TheCounterFactual

Formerly Bernard Woolley. Now free to express my own views. Also some football.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

I took my child to the Children's Hospital. The staff were wonderful. All was good. But while I was waiting I talked to the security staff. I had seen two outside and asked why.

I was told that there were actually 8.

One on every entrance. Four to support

Cont...

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@JBfootyfc Ouch

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@EULondonMark Almost none of UK companies export goods to the EU. They shouldn't be burdened by new EU regulations.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@_Gottalovezik This may be Michael Carrick's greatest legacy 🤣

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@TorstenBell If life expectancy keeps going up, then yes. That is fair.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@tomhfh I mean... yes.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

A Government should balance the budget. This year. Not maybe in 5 years' time.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

Every version of FM I try to buy Joshua Kimmich. FM27 will be no different.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

Good data analysis doesn't just present the data, it provides a plausible explanation.

That's what is happening here

[Tom Harwood @tomhfh]

Great data analysis here.

Per capita, people ‘born on 1st January’ are significantly more aggressive and sexually criminal than those born on 2nd January.

Why? Turns out for lots of illegal migrants - when the state can’t determine their precise birthday - the default becomes 01/01.

An interesting way to decipher migrant crime statistics even though the government refuses to publish migrant crime statistics.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

This rhetorical insistence on 40 years / since Thatcher is bonkers.

Blair used up the economic benefits accrued before him but still kept things growing. The 2008 crisis was the start of a new dynamic.

We need to break free from deficit funded greater government control. Trust people. Now.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@Steve_Laws_ This was a First Reading of a Bill under the 10 minute rule. It was withdrawn the next day.

Anyone arguing that someone not speaking against it must agree with it is either disingenuous or doesn't understand how Parliament works.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@julianHjessop Good news! I always like to acknowledge it when it exists.

There are lots of caveats to this, but let's just smile for a moment.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@FraserNelson It may be unlikely on current trends, but it isn't nonsensical.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

It will be Poch.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@julianHjessop 💯

The more importent issue is whether Andy Burnham and his advisers realise this...

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@StevenScrase I respect the hustle. And agree that Con's biggest issue is memories of when they were in power.

But you come across as a clever fellow. Con will get three figures. You know that.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@JexParkin What was the response?

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

I am no eth-nat, but it is getting increasingly hard to not acknowledge the demographic displacement that has happened in my lifetime. And the structural opposition to acknowledging the existance of a White British / Anglo-Saxon ethnic identity.

[Rupert Lowe MP @RupertLowe10]

An English ethnic identity obviously exists, reflecting generations of deep connection to a particular part of our islands, to our home.

Pretending that historic peoples do not exist
makes any honest discussion about demographic change impossible.

The English exist, and we will not be erased.

Demographic security is a legitimate subject of democratic politics and Restore Britain has committed to ensuring that security.

An England or Britain filled with Indians, Afghans and Somalians would be no England or Britain at all.

Why are we uniquely forbidden from having any interest in our own demographic future?

This is our home, and we don’t have anywhere else to go.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

Pay attention to the trends, not just the headlines.

Lab is now in a clear lead.
Con is now edging past Ref
LD and Green are moving down
Ref is slowly ticking upwards.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (-1)
CON: 25% (+2)
RFM: 20% (-2)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 7% (-1)
RES: 6% (+1)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @Moreincommon_, 6-9 Nov.
Changes w/ 31 Oct - 1 Nov.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

@LordAshcroft Exactly. And thank you.

[TheCounterFactual @The_Counterfact]

This kind of polling question is effectively meaningless- the majority of voters haven't considered the practicalities because they haven't been told about them.

A "stay out" campaign would be able to take its pick from highlighting freedom of movement, the cost of membership and much more.

[Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft]

How would you vote in a new EU referendum?

https://t.co/OpvEPacywz