Edge

Finding stats and trends others don’t
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[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Thursday Night Football

Drake London anytime TD
Michael Penix o200 pass yards
Drake London o80 receiving yards
Christian Watson o60 receiving yards
(+700) $25 to win $200

Matthew Golden o50 receiving yards
Jordan Love o200 pass yards
Bijan Robinson anytime TD
Kyle Pitts o40 receiving yards
(+825) $25 to win $277

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Park splits · MLB · September 25

What hitters have actually done at tonight's park, over a career sample.

Mickey Gasper — .509 SLG in 112 career AB at Fenway Park, +219 points above his .290 everywhere else. Home park.

Nick Sogard — .448 SLG in 194 career AB at Fenway Park, +158 points above his .290 everywhere else.

Full workings in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

NFL TD Watch — results · Sep 24

Anytime TD: 1-1 · 50% · -0.35u
2+ touchdowns: 1-1 · 50% · +2.50u

✅ Bijan Robinson -154 — 2 TD
✅ Bijan Robinson (2+) +350 — 2 TD
❌ Drake London +187 — no TD
❌ Drake London (2+) +1400 — no TD

Where the market went:
Anytime TD: 0 of 2 shortened after we posted them (-0.7 pts average)
2+ touchdowns: 0 of 2 shortened after we posted them (-0.6 pts average)

Every graded bet, wins and losses. Full record in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

MLB Home Run Watch · September 25
Ranked on measured power form and the matchup, not a projection.

Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros) · +290
Career vs Jacob Lopez: Yordan Alvarez is 1-5 (.200) with 1 HR. · 41 HR this season (0.26/game) · 3 of the last 10 games with a home run
Ronald Acuña Jr. (Atlanta Braves) · +382
Career vs Eury Pérez: Ronald Acuña Jr. is 4-9 (.444) with 1 HR. · 20 HR this season (0.19/game) · 4 of the last 10 games with a home run
Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves) · +343
41 HR this season (0.26/game) · 3 of the last 10 games with a home run · Facing Eury Pérez, 4.23 ERA, 3.09 HR/9
Drake Baldwin (Atlanta Braves) · +450
Career vs Eury Pérez: Drake Baldwin is 4-9 (.444) with 2 HR. · 24 HR this season (0.18/game) · 1 of the last 10 games with a home run
Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves) · +525
19 HR this season (0.12/game) · 2 of the last 10 games with a home run · Facing Eury Pérez, 4.23 ERA, 3.09 HR/9

Full workings in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Today's board · Friday, September 25

MLB — 9 picks, 28 props · top: Over 6.5 (-105)
College football — 6 picks · top: Temple Owls ML (+147)
UFC — 2 picks · top: Montel Jackson ML (-215)
Tennis — 8 picks · top: Ristic, Mia ML (-714)

Home run watch: Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros) · +290 — Career vs Jacob Lopez: Yordan Alvarez is 1-5 (.200) with 1 HR. · 41 HR this season (0.26/game)

Parlays: MLB 6

45 picks evaluated and declined today — reasons posted separately.

Full workings in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

MLB board — Sep 25

Over 6.5 (-105) — Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox
Over 6.5 (-120) — Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees
Over 7.5 (-128) — Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox
Over 7.5 (-109) — Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
Over 6.5 (-122) — Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners

9 picks on the board today. Full reasoning in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Sep 25

REFUSED PICKS — 45

TENNIS · Swan, Katie vs Pohankova, Mia · moneyline
consensus too close (57% vs 50%)

UFC · Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura · moneyline
edge 2.5% below UFC 3% conviction floor

UFC · Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek · moneyline
edge +12.7% at or above the suspect-edge threshold — treated as model error, refused (model 53.9% vs market 41.2%)

UFC · Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui · moneyline
edge 2.1% below UFC 3% conviction floor

MLB · Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.1) for F5 ML

MLB · Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox · spread
edge +1.0% is real but the price is not: -2.3% EV per unit at -196 (blended) — the de-vig removes the book's margin, the payout does not

MLB · Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox · full total
suspect raw edge +11.8% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox · full ml
suspect raw edge +11.0% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.3) for F5 ML

MLB · Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees · spread
negative EV: model 63.2% vs market 65.9% (-2.7%)

MLB · Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees · full total
suspect raw edge +11.1% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers · full total
gap too small (0.7 runs) for full game total

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.3) for F5 ML

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers · spread
suspect raw edge +12.5% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies · full total
negative EV: model 50.5% vs market 51.7% (-1.3%)

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.7) for F5 ML

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies · full ml
suspect raw edge +12.0% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · New York Mets vs Washington Nationals · full total
gap too small (0.6 runs) for full game total

MLB · New York Mets vs Washington Nationals · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.1) for F5 ML

MLB · New York Mets vs Washington Nationals · spread
suspect raw edge +12.7% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays · full total
CS 4 below minimum 7

MLB · Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.2) for F5 ML

MLB · Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays · spread
edge +0.8% is real but the price is not: -2.0% EV per unit at -185 (blended) — the de-vig removes the book's margin, the payout does not

MLB · Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins · full total
gap too small (0 runs) for full game total

MLB · Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.2) for F5 ML

MLB · Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins · spread
edge +1.7% is real but the price is not: -0.9% EV per unit at -164 (blended) — the de-vig removes the book's margin, the payout does not

MLB · Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals · full total
gap too small (0.7 runs) for full game total

MLB · Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.4) for F5 ML

MLB · Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals · full ml
suspect raw edge +16.6% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals · spread
edge +1.1% is real but the price is not: -1.9% EV per unit at -143 (blended) — the de-vig removes the book's margin, the payout does not

MLB · Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox · full ml
suspect raw edge +20.6% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox · spread
suspect raw edge +13.6% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers · full total
CS 6 below minimum 7

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.2) for F5 ML

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers · full ml
edge +0.1% is real but the price is not: -2.4% EV per unit at -179 (blended) — the de-vig removes the book's margin, the payout does not

MLB · Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins · full total
edge +1.9% is real but the price is not: -0.9% EV per unit at -120 — the de-vig removes the book's margin, the payout does not

MLB · Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0) for F5 ML

MLB · Houston Astros vs Athletics · full ml
suspect raw edge +23.7% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · Houston Astros vs Athletics · spread
suspect raw edge +22.1% (>=10%) refused — projection not market-validated

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.1) for F5 ML

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres · spread
edge +1.7% is real but the price is not: -0.5% EV per unit at -185 (blended) — the de-vig removes the book's margin, the payout does not

MLB · Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0) for F5 ML

MLB · Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners · spread
edge +0.9% is real but the price is not: -1.9% EV per unit at -213 (blended) — the de-vig removes the book's margin, the payout does not

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants · unknown
run-rate gap too small (0.5) for F5 ML

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants · full ml
negative EV: model 68.1% vs market 73.3% (-5.2%)

Every pick our engines evaluated and declined to publish, with the reason they gave.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Friday, September 25 — MLB Trends

Hottest hit-rate props on today's slate.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Contact quality · MLB · September 25

Barrels and hard contact, against what the league does.

Munetaka Murakami has barrelled 19.2% of his batted balls this season across 540 plate appearances — about 2.56x the league rate of 7.5%. His hard-hit rate is 56%.

James Wood has barrelled 19% of his batted balls this season across 610 plate appearances — about 2.53x the league rate of 7.5%. His hard-hit rate is 58.6%.

Shohei Ohtani has barrelled 16.6% of his batted balls this season across 606 plate appearances — about 2.21x the league rate of 7.5%. His hard-hit rate is 52.3%.

15 more hitters measured in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Times through the order · MLB · September 25

How deep a starter goes before the bullpen takes over.

Noah Cameron does not miss many bats, but he pitches long enough that the strikeouts add up anyway. Only 7.8 per nine innings — quiet on paper — but 6 innings a start over his last 15, and he routinely faces the lineup a third time.

Brayan Bello does not miss many bats, but he pitches long enough that the strikeouts add up anyway.

Cristopher Sánchez both misses bats and pitches deep, so the rate and the opportunity point the same way.

3 more starters measured in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Bullpen usage · MLB · September 25

Who has been overworked and who is rested. Relief innings across the last three days.

Houston Astros's bullpen has covered 20.0 innings across 13 relief appearances in the last 3 days, including heavy usage on back-to-back nights. A pen carrying that workload is short on leverage arms, and the innings fall to whoever is left — which tends to show up late rather than early.

Kansas City Royals's bullpen has covered 18.1 innings across 12 relief appearances in the last 3 days, including heavy usage on back-to-back nights.

Detroit Tigers's bullpen has thrown just 6.2 innings over the last 3 days across 6 appearances. Everyone should be available, including the back-end arms, so late innings are as strong as this pen gets.

7 more bullpens measured in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Pitch matchups · MLB · September 25

Hitters against the specific pitches tonight's starter actually throws, measured against their own baseline.

Jarren Duran is a safer bet to put the ball in play tonight than he usually is, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 16% of the time against the kind of pitches Clay Holmes throws, compared with 28% against everyone else — 11 points better.

Alika Williams is a safer bet to put the ball in play tonight than he usually is, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. Based on 61% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Evan Carter is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it.

9 more hitters measured in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Park factors · MLB · September 25

How tonight's parks play against a neutral one.

Oracle Park — hr graveyard (Savant 3yr): HR 78, hits 100, K 97. Fly balls die here — power props and overs are a tougher sell.

T-Mobile Park — whiff park (Savant 3yr): HR 96, hits 89, K 118. Strikeouts run hot — pitcher K overs and unders lean up.

Yankee Stadium — power park (Savant 3yr): HR 117, hits 95, K 103. Balls carry — HR props and overs get a real nudge here.

2 more parks measured in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

College Football · September 25
Clemson Tigers @ California Golden Bears

California Golden Bears 2-1 — California Golden Bears: 25.8 scored / 25.1 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (25.3 / 28.9 raw) across 3 games (1 vs non-FBS, 1 decided by 28+), effective sample 2.24
Clemson Tigers 2-1 — Clemson Tigers: 22.9 scored / 23.3 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (21.1 / 23.2 raw) across 3 games (1 decided by 28+), effective sample 2.7
Clemson Tigers: schedule-adjusted scoring 22.9 vs 21.1 raw (+1.8), average opponent rating +2.3
Clemson Tigers: last 3 games move this side -0.5 points off its season rate
Average opponent rating faced: California Golden Bears +5.6, Clemson Tigers +2.3 points vs FBS average

Bet: California Golden Bears ML (+111)
Full workings in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

College Football · September 25
Clemson Tigers @ California Golden Bears

California Golden Bears: 25.8 scored / 25.1 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (25.3 / 28.9 raw) across 3 games (1 vs non-FBS, 1 decided by 28+), effective sample 2.24
Clemson Tigers: 22.9 scored / 23.3 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (21.1 / 23.2 raw) across 3 games (1 decided by 28+), effective sample 2.7
Clemson Tigers: schedule-adjusted scoring 22.9 vs 21.1 raw (+1.8), average opponent rating +2.3
Clemson Tigers: last 3 games move this side -0.5 points off its season rate
Recent form: California Golden Bears 3 games (1 vs non-FBS, 1 blowout), effective 2.24, Clemson Tigers 3 games (1 blowout), effective 2.7

Bet: California Golden Bears +1 (+102)
Full workings in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

College Football · September 25
Northwestern Wildcats @ Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana Hoosiers: 36.1 scored / 10.2 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (46.5 / 6.8 raw) across 3 games (1 vs non-FBS, 3 decided by 28+), effective sample 1.64
Northwestern Wildcats: 37.8 scored / 18.4 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (38.7 / 10.7 raw) across 2 games (1 vs non-FBS, 1 decided by 28+), effective sample 1.05
Indiana Hoosiers: schedule-adjusted scoring 36.1 vs 46.5 raw (-10.4), average opponent rating -18.5
Northwestern Wildcats: last 3 games move this side +1.4 points off its season rate
Northwestern Wildcats: schedule-adjusted scoring 37.8 vs 38.7 raw (-0.8), average opponent rating -11.4

Bet: Under 49.5 (+100)
Full workings in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

College Football · September 25
Army Black Knights @ Temple Owls

Temple Owls: 31.9 scored / 28.7 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (29.9 / 34.4 raw) across 3 games (1 vs non-FBS), effective sample 2.35
Army Black Knights: 34.7 scored / 23.8 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (30.8 / 23.2 raw) across 2 games (1 vs non-FBS, 1 decided by 28+), effective sample 1.24
Army Black Knights: schedule-adjusted scoring 34.7 vs 30.8 raw (+3.9), average opponent rating +4.3
Temple Owls: schedule-adjusted scoring 31.9 vs 29.9 raw (+2), average opponent rating +11
Army Black Knights: last 3 games move this side +1 points off its season rate

Bet: Temple Owls +3 (+105)
Full workings in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

College Football · September 25
Army Black Knights @ Temple Owls

Temple Owls 1-2 — Temple Owls: 31.9 scored / 28.7 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (29.9 / 34.4 raw) across 3 games (1 vs non-FBS), effective sample 2.35
Army Black Knights 1-1 — Army Black Knights: 34.7 scored / 23.8 allowed per game, schedule-adjusted (30.8 / 23.2 raw) across 2 games (1 vs non-FBS, 1 decided by 28+), effective sample 1.24
Army Black Knights: schedule-adjusted scoring 34.7 vs 30.8 raw (+3.9), average opponent rating +4.3
Temple Owls: schedule-adjusted scoring 31.9 vs 29.9 raw (+2), average opponent rating +11
Army Black Knights: last 3 games move this side +1 points off its season rate

Bet: Temple Owls ML (+147)
Full workings in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

College findings · College football · September 25

Points per hundred yards, turnovers and yards per play across today's card.

Howard Bison @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights is not an FBS-vs-FBS fixture. Whatever either side has done so far, this game will not tell you much about them, and the result should be discounted when it appears in next week's form.

Every one of UAB Blazers's 3 games has come against FBS opposition and none was a 28+ point blowout, so their whole sample carries full weight. A 1-2 record built this way is stronger evidence than the same record built on a soft opening month.

Indiana Hoosiers are 3-0 across 3 games, but only 1.64 of those carry full weight — 1 came against non-FBS opposition and 3 were decided by 28+ points. Their per-game numbers describe a schedule, not a team.

1 more team measured in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

Tennis board — Sep 25

Ristic, Mia ML (-714) — Pieri, Jessica vs Ristic, Mia
Gasanova, Anastasia ML (-714)
Andreeva, Mirra ML (-385) — Fernandez, Leylah vs Andreeva, Mirra
Kraus, Sinja ML (-435)
Sakkari, Maria ML (-235) — Gibson, Talia vs Sakkari, Maria

8 picks on the board today. Full reasoning in the app.

[Edge @the_edgeapp]

One more for fun

$25 ➡️ $237

Bijan Robinson anytime TD
Kyle Pitts 25+ receiving yards
Drake London 50+ receiving yards
Matthew Golden 40+ receiving yards
Christian Watson 50+ receiving yards
Jordan Love 220+ passing yards
Michael Penix 200+ passing yards