The bull / bear debate ultimately boils down to the chart below: do you believe in rising EPS margins (red line), or falling FCF margins (blue line)?
The reality is probably in between, but I lean bearish because the market is pricing permanently higher profit margins
@inside_ffm Erstaunlich, dass die Mannschaft von weiten Teilen der Fan-Szene sehr lange überschätzt wurde. Spätestens seit dem 0-3 gegen Bergamo war klar, dass es vor allem an einem fehlt: QUALITÄT
I don’t actually think most investors realise how much AI usage is exploding. It’s starting to hit that early exponential part of the curve.
Every top model has been massively nerfed compared to a month ago simply because there’s just not enough compute for all the new demand.
Most investors overpay for quality.
Great companies.
Strong brands.
High margins.
But price matters.
My Wide Moat + High FCF Yield strategy focuses on:
• durable businesses
• strong cash flow
• disciplined valuation
I explained the framework here:
Worse than expected! $5.4bn in redemption requests. Blue Owl caps withdrawals at 5%. KKR, Apollo, BlackRock, Ares: same script. 41% of Blue Owl's tech fund wants out. They're getting 5%. 2008 vibes, but on steroids.
Most investors think in asset classes.
Stocks. Bonds. Commodities.
I don’t.
My cross-asset model allocates across 20 markets based on:
• Value (vs history)
• Momentum
The better the trend and the cheaper the asset, the higher the allocation.
I explained it here:
Most investors separate quality, value and momentum.
I combine them.
My Wide Moat + Momentum strategy selects 30 stocks based on:
• ROIC
• EBIT / EV
• 6 & 12m momentum
Avg ROIC: 40.5%
Reviewed monthly.
I explained the framework here:
https://t.co/jBwGsxc5y1
$GLD down 19%, $GDX down 31%, $SLV down 44%, $SIL down 33%, $BTC down 44% off highs. Lots of trapped longs up there. Just remember those who were telling you to buy up there.
Surprisingly, Bitcoin has performed well since the war began suggesting most large sellers have already sold. Furthermore, an asset that doesn’t fall on bad news is potentially a long-term buy.
Sold half of my $LRCX position (+130%) and rotated into $SCCO.
$SCCO:
• ROIC: 25.2%
• Earnings Yield: 5.8%
• Strong 6–12M momentum
Quality + value + trend.
Not financial advice.