The Bitcoin Layer

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[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Bitcoin Wants To Run But Liquidity Won’t Let It

Demian on the two forces pulling against each other right now: bitcoin’s own supply and demand have turned bullish, while rates, bond volatility and the dollar are still holding it back.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Bitcoin Is Setting Up To Beat The Nasdaq

@Jamie1Coutts on why bitcoin already washed out its leverage while tech is just starting to degross, the margin debt signal that flashed before 2000 and 2007, and why the liquidity response comes next.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Why Stocks Really Crashed Today

Nik on the worst day for the Nasdaq since Liberation Day, why he thinks the credit cycle is driving this rather than the midterms, and what a 55 basis point drop in treasury yields is telling him.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
The Fed Will Have To Print Bigger This Time

Nik on the three money market charts he watches as a former repo trader: the SOFR spread at a yearly high, $7 trillion in T-bills needing funding, and bank reserves back near 2019 levels.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Prediction Markets Are A Symptom Of Debasement

@markgoodw_in on why people gamble when wages never kept up, why Polymarket is not the trustless oracle people think it is, and why stablecoins are becoming the new petrodollar.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Bitcoin Held Up Through A $6 Billion Hack

Nik on why bitcoin only fell 5% after $6.3 billion was taken from Binance, why it outperformed both gold and the Nasdaq today, and why gold losing its trend line opens up $3,400.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

For months, oil drove interest rates. Higher oil, higher yields.That link is fading.

The correlation between Brent and the 10-year fell from 0.67 in September to 0.29. Warsh says he’s watching the shift.

The likely new driver: the AI build-out and the credit that funds it.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

A flattening yield curve and widening credit spreads keep a lid on bitcoin.

Both are happening. Since Oct 7 the 2s10s flattened 24 bp and CCC spreads climbed to 13.45%.

After the Fed held, the curve steepened slightly. That’s the relief signal to watch.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
Wall Street Has No Idea What the Fed Is Doing Anymore

Nik on the Bloomberg meltdown after the Fed held, why he thinks the hold was justified after September tightened conditions, and why a steepening yield curve could relieve pressure on bitcoin.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

August 5, 2024: the Nikkei fell 12.4% in one day, its biggest drop since 1987. Tokyo Electron fell 18.5%, bitcoin 12.1%, the Nasdaq 8%.

The trigger was a Bank of Japan hike and a weak US jobs report the same week. When the yen carry trade unwinds, it unwinds everywhere at once.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

Japan has spent about $332 billion buying yen since September 2022, across six rounds of intervention. The latest round was the biggest yet: $97 billion.

The yen is still at 157.9 per dollar. Each round flushes out the most leveraged carry traders and buys a few weeks.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
It’s Death Either Way For Japan

@peruvian_bull on how the yen carry trade became something the Bank of Japan can’t tame, why the US joined a $91 billion intervention for the first time since 1998, and why Japan has to pick its poison.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

Investment grade companies borrow at about January’s rates. The riskiest borrowers pay almost 5 points more, over 2 of it in the last four weeks.

Companies without proven cash flow can’t refinance at those rates, and that is how a default wave starts.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
The Credit Cycle Is Turning On Stocks

Nik on Anthropic filing to IPO, SpaceX raising $40 billion and Meta raising $95 billion, why so much issuance at once means the funding window is narrowing, and why stock valuations are already rolling over.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

From our conversation with Dr. Giovanni Santostasi and Dr. Stephen Perrenod: https://t.co/PdKUKRLmz4

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

Put bitcoin’s price and its age on log scales and 16 years of madness straighten into one line.

That line is a power law, and price has swung around it the whole way.

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
97% Of Bitcoin’s Price Is Explained By The Power Law

@Giovann35084111 and @moneyordebt on why only 3% of bitcoin price history sits outside the power law, why adoption grows as the cube of time like the internet and viruses, and what their new paper found.

[Jameson Lopp @lopp]

An open letter to the Bitcoin ecosystem:

[The Bitcoin Layer @TheBitcoinLayer]

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨
The Most Important Thing About This Debt Crisis with Matt Dines

@LeveredUSTs on why QE is the wrong prescription when the real constraint is physical, why companies are issuing bonds with a gun to their head, and what a default wave means for bitcoin.