The Coach Effect

Measuring coaching beyond results.

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

How much does a coach really matter?

Results tell us who won.
They don’t always tell us who performed well.

The Coach Effect looks beyond the league table using data, expectations, context and history to better understand coaching performance.

Welcome to The Coach Effect.

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

Hellas Verona’s decline eventually ended in relegation.

Now in Serie B: 1.40 PPG. A recovery.
But with −0.30 Expectation Gain, they're still well below expectations.

Enough for a promotion push, or is the decline not over yet?

#HellasVerona #SerieB #TheCoachEffect

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🩷🖤 Are Palermo becoming too good for Serie B?

1.47 → 1.89 → 2.60 PPG 🚀

And now an extraordinary +0.70 Expectation Gain.

Dominance or an unsustainable hot streak?

How high is Palermo's real ceiling?

#PalermoFC #SerieB #TheCoachEffect

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🔴🔵 Has Bologna's upward cycle ended?
1.08 → 1.42 → 1.79 PPG 📈

Then:
1.63 → 1.47 → 0.40 📉

Now Expectation Gain has also collapsed far below the -0.20 threshold.

Bad start, or has the Bologna project already peaked?

#BolognaFC #SerieA #TheCoachEffect

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

Udinese: bad start or something deeper? ⚪⚫

After signs of recovery, 2026/27 has brought a sharp reversal:

📉 0.80 PPG
🔴 -0.33 Expectation Gain

A temporary crisis, or the continuation of a longer decline?

#Udinese #SerieA #TheCoachEffect

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🔵 Napoli are at 1.40 PPG. But -0.09 Expectation Gain may be the more worrying number.
22/23: 2.37 | +0.40 🏆
23/24: 1.39 | -0.40
24/25: 2.16 | +0.29 🏆
25/26: 2.00 | +0.19
26/27: 1.40 | -0.09
They're struggling.
Has the expected level of Napoli fallen too?
#Napoli #SerieA

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🦅 Lazio have broken their own scale.

Previous 20-team-era peak: 2.05 PPG
2025/26: 1.42 PPG | +0.03 EG
2026/27: 2.60 PPG | ~+0.70 EG 🤯

That isn't normal improvement. It's an extreme statistical jump.

New Lazio or regression waiting to happen?

#Lazio #SerieA #TheCoachEffect

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🔵⚫ Is this Inter Milan's season actually better than the 2006/07 team?
2006/07: 2.55 PPG | +0.53 EG
2026/27: 2.60 PPG | +0.50 EG

But +0.50 Expectation Gain raises the real question:
Dominance… or an unsustainable level of overperformance?
#Inter #SerieA #TheCoachEffect

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🔴⚫ Milan are back above 2 PPG. But that's not the most interesting number.

2024/25: 1.66 PPG | -0.11 EG
2025/26: 1.84 | 0.00
2026/27: 2.20 | +0.39 🚀

+0.39 Expectation Gain suggests something different: they're taking far more points than expected. Overperformance?
#ACMilan

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🟡🔴 AS Roma are breaking their own 20-year curve.

2022/23: 1.66 PPG | -0.03 EG
2023/24: 1.66 | +0.05
2024/25: 1.82 | +0.17
2025/26: 1.92 | +0.20
2026/27: 2.60 | +0.70 🚀

The question isn't whether this start is exceptional.
It's whether it is sustainable.
#ASRoma #SerieA

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

⚪⚫ When did 2.00 PPG become good enough for Juventus?

At their peak:
2.68 PPG | +0.51 Expectation Gain
Recent seasons:
1.84 → 1.89 → 1.87 → 1.84 → 2.00 PPG
And 2026/27 EG is just -0.04.

Juventus are back at 2.00.
Return to the top, or a new normal?

#Juventus #SerieA

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🟣 What has happened to Fiorentina?

2024/25: 1.71 PPG | +0.22 EG
2026/27: 0.80 PPG | -0.62 EG

The lowest Expectation Gain on Fiorentina’s recent timeline.

Not just a bad season. A dramatic collapse against expectations.

How did it happen?

#Fiorentina #SerieA

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🔵⚫ Is Atalanta’s golden cycle over?

8 straight seasons above 1.50 PPG from 2017/18 to 2024/25.
Now:
2025/26 → 1.55 | -0.15 EG
2026/27 → 1.20 | -0.31 EG
Not just fewer points. Results are now falling below expectations.
Temporary transition or end of an era?
#Atalanta #SerieA

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

🔴 Torino: stability or stagnation?

Different coaches. Different squads. Same question.

Torino’s Expectation Gain has been close to zero or negative for 7 straight seasons.

At what point does consistency become a ceiling?

📊 20+ years of performance.

#Torino #SerieA

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

📊 Antonio Conte’s career trend.

Juventus 13/14: 2.68 PPG | +0.51 EG
Chelsea 16/17: 2.45 | +0.44
Inter 20/21: 2.39 | +0.35
Napoli 24/25: 2.16 | +0.29

Different clubs and leagues, but a recurring pattern: outperforming expectations.

#TheCoachEffect #AntonioConte #conte #seriea

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

📊 Thiago Motta in Serie A:

Genoa: 0.67 PPG | -0.50 EG
Spezia: 0.95 | +0.03
Bologna 22/23: 1.50 | +0.27
Bologna 23/24: 1.79 | +0.32
Juventus: 1.79 | +0.03

Same PPG at Bologna and Juventus. Very different Expectation Gain.

#TheCoachEffect #thiagomotta #seriea

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

📊 Davide Nicola’s Serie A/B career.

Several spells above expectations:

Livorno 12/13: 1.90 PPG | +0.31 EG
Genoa 19/20: 1.33 | +0.16
Salernitana 21/22: 1.20 | +0.26
Empoli 23/24: 1.28 | +0.24

2025/26 Cremonese: 0.83 | -0.07

#TheCoachEffect #DavideNicola #SerieA

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

📊 Raffaele Palladino in Serie A:

Monza 22/23: 1.59 PPG | +0.39 EG
Monza 23/24: 1.18 | +0.02
Fiorentina 24/25: 1.71 | +0.22
Atalanta 25/26: 1.70 | +0.03

Similar PPG at Fiorentina and Atalanta, but a very different Expectation Gain.

#TheCoachEffect #SerieA #Bologna #Fiorentina

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

📊 Paolo Zanetti’s Serie A/B career shows major swings.

Peak: 1.55 PPG | +0.15 EG with Venezia in Serie B.
In Serie A, only in Empoli 22/23 (+0.11) and in Hellas Verona 24/25 (+0.02) finished above expectations

2025/26: 0.61 PPG | -0.43 EG

#TheCoachEffect #PaoloZanetti #SerieA

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

📊 Alberto Gilardino’s Serie A/B trend:

2022/23 Genoa: 2.22 PPG | +0.43 EG
2023/24: 1.29 | +0.12
2024/25: 0.83 | -0.22
2025/26 Pisa: 0.61 | -0.32
A clear shift from outperforming to underperforming expectations.

#TheCoachEffect #Gilardino #SerieA #SerieB

[The Coach Effect @thecoacheffect]

📊 Roberto D’Aversa | Career Performance

After several difficult Serie A spells, his season at Torino was very positive:

2025/26: 1.50 PPG | +0.35 Expectation Gain

His highest EG across the Serie A/B seasons analysed.

#TheCoachEffect #DAversa #SerieA #Torino