Ilia was 1.2 in the betting, implying an 83.33% chance. In other words, the chance of him not winning was the chance of rolling a six, something you'd expect to happen once every six times. Another biggest upset ever. They just keep on coming.
#UFCFreedom250#UFC
Weird market this one. SP on the DNB was around 1.38. The 1X2 SP was 1.47. Anyway, 5-1 or 4-2 Fury. Will say Hall looked better than he did against Thor. In-play bettors apparently didn't realise open scoring told you the result early. Fight was a turd joust.🥊💥 #FuryHall
I suspect Tommy Fury is value to beat Eddie Hall at 1.29 in a couple of weeks. Only Fred's prices up at the moment that I can see. All a bit tawdry but tyg. 🥊💥#FuryHall
Just checking in with Anthony “people say I've had more comebacks than the Beatles” Ogogo. He appears to be on some kind of alpha male life coach grift, sliding into your DM's like a Premier League footballer (if you're Bonnie Blue).
I suspect Tommy Fury is value to beat Eddie Hall at 1.29 in a couple of weeks. Only Fred's prices up at the moment that I can see. All a bit tawdry but tyg. 🥊💥#FuryHall
Wolves have sacked Rob Edwards after agreeing deal to bring in Cesar Peixoto as his replacement. Edwards first heard of his sacking after members of his family saw rumours of Peixoto’s appointment on social media and Edwards called the club to ask about the rumours. #wwfc
You start out with the 101 stuff: line grinding. Sharp books have more information because they let informed participants stay and get paid. So you can shop relative value until you wear out your welcome at soft books. Or try your hand at bonus sniping (used to be common in online poker back in the day too fwiw). Kiosk raiding.
Then you look deeper. Inefficiencies. Underpriced correlations. Rule changes. Flawed statistical distribution assumptions. Latency arbs (steam chasing). Stat arbs (ml vs spread).
Then there are models. Models against relatively soft markets are great. They start to get eaten up as liquidity increases, as one would expect. Underappreciated inputs can move the needle here, but it’s a game of outrun.
Finally, you come to the realization that the most robust errors your counterparties are making are behavioural psych related. These errors persist, are subtle, and are exceedingly hard to iron out of sports markets.
Then you start noticing them in other markets too 🤫
You're down bad when Boil Spurts are high-horsing you. | West Ham sponsor Boyle Sports ‘extremely concerned’ by David Sullivan allegations.
https://t.co/lpxdOtv3VE