James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social

TV writing, MMA, betting and Aston Villa.

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Just backed Boris Johnson as next PM at 300. #GE2017

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Imagine taking this guy horseracing and him having a fit every time a horse over 6/1 comes in.

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Ilia was 1.2 in the betting, implying an 83.33% chance. In other words, the chance of him not winning was the chance of rolling a six, something you'd expect to happen once every six times. Another biggest upset ever. They just keep on coming.
#UFCFreedom250 #UFC

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Roy Keane hates John McGinn because he instinctively knows he would never betray his country like a bitch like he did.

[Sean O’Meowlly🍭 @NeedMyNutsLickt]

I’m a now deleted post by Daniel Cormier, Eric Trump DM’d him and asked him “are any of the fights tomorrow rigged?” 👀
#UFCWhiteHouse

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Weird market this one. SP on the DNB was around 1.38. The 1X2 SP was 1.47. Anyway, 5-1 or 4-2 Fury. Will say Hall looked better than he did against Thor. In-play bettors apparently didn't realise open scoring told you the result early. Fight was a turd joust.🥊💥 #FuryHall

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

I suspect Tommy Fury is value to beat Eddie Hall at 1.29 in a couple of weeks. Only Fred's prices up at the moment that I can see. All a bit tawdry but tyg. 🥊💥#FuryHall

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Just checking in with Anthony “people say I've had more comebacks than the Beatles” Ogogo. He appears to be on some kind of alpha male life coach grift, sliding into your DM's like a Premier League footballer (if you're Bonnie Blue).

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Quite excited for Brian and Bev, the new couple on Corrie who shake things up with their swinger lifestyle.

[VIPboxing @vipboxing]

Weigh-in; Gemma Richardson v Jana Duchonova#BehindTheScenes #Instagram

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Proper Black Country, this.

[Bygone Britain @BygoneBritain]

1970s: "Do you like faggots"

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Probably nothing but curious why Villa went rather quickly from 38 to win the league to 28. Signing incoming? #avfc

[Ryan Cummings @Pol_Sec_Analyst]

Thirty years apart, Salma Hayek still looks good posing with a snake

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

If you're curious, Eddie Hall's only fight. Imagine Mike Tyson if he fought while having a stroke. 🥊💥 #FuryHall
https://t.co/arzTloG5sq

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Have took Fury (Draw No Bet) at 1.305 at 247Bet. True odds 1.15-1.20, I guess? Feel dirty admitting it.🥊📷 #FuryHall

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

I suspect Tommy Fury is value to beat Eddie Hall at 1.29 in a couple of weeks. Only Fred's prices up at the moment that I can see. All a bit tawdry but tyg. 🥊💥#FuryHall

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Keep getting this stupid Nose in my feed, chatting bare shit. Probably got his TV stuck on Babestation.

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

#IrelandsShame

[Samplo Corvodina of Streatham @TreborRhurbarb]

Tfw Diana Ross converts her penalty tonight

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

LOL. Dingles got no class. Not a smidgen.

[Pete O'Rourke @SportsPeteO]

Wolves have sacked Rob Edwards after agreeing deal to bring in Cesar Peixoto as his replacement. Edwards first heard of his sacking after members of his family saw rumours of Peixoto’s appointment on social media and Edwards called the club to ask about the rumours. #wwfc

[Andrew Mack @Gingfacekillah]

You start out with the 101 stuff: line grinding. Sharp books have more information because they let informed participants stay and get paid. So you can shop relative value until you wear out your welcome at soft books. Or try your hand at bonus sniping (used to be common in online poker back in the day too fwiw). Kiosk raiding.

Then you look deeper. Inefficiencies. Underpriced correlations. Rule changes. Flawed statistical distribution assumptions. Latency arbs (steam chasing). Stat arbs (ml vs spread).

Then there are models. Models against relatively soft markets are great. They start to get eaten up as liquidity increases, as one would expect. Underappreciated inputs can move the needle here, but it’s a game of outrun.

Finally, you come to the realization that the most robust errors your counterparties are making are behavioural psych related. These errors persist, are subtle, and are exceedingly hard to iron out of sports markets.

Then you start noticing them in other markets too 🤫

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

You're down bad when Boil Spurts are high-horsing you. | West Ham sponsor Boyle Sports ‘extremely concerned’ by David Sullivan allegations.
https://t.co/lpxdOtv3VE

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

Not one for hyperbole but Rise of the Villans is the greatest sports book ever written. The level of detail is crazy. 10/10, no notes. #avfc

[James Donaghy @thecoldgun.bsky.social @thecoldgun]

It felt like the lawyers took a hatchet to the David Sullivan Panorama. Gross, sleazy, exploitative, of course – I think there's more to come though.