The Confused Chap

Interested in all kinds of stuff including tennis, football, movies, TV and politics. Rafa Nadal fan. Open minded. Follow a lot of people I don't agree with.

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

Zverev has a serious chance of slam 2 now

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@andrew_lilico Tennis is insanely technical. One of the few sports where there’s no hiding behind power at the very top

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

When Ratcliffe came in many United fans said he’s a serious businessman and there’s no way he would give the Glazers 1.5 billion without a path to full ownership. And now it looks like that’s exactly what he did. Probably now Jim regrets the transaction entirely.

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@usareddevils At the rate the Glazers are going, they will not get the value they want for United. Most young people prefer other clubs now. I think they have a 5 year window at most to still get 5 billion plus

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

More and more I think Sheikh Jassim was a mirage built by the Glazers to con broke Ratcliffe into investment to save their asses and take blame

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

United fans just stop going to Old Traffird and stop buying anything the club sells. Otherwise you lot will be crying about the same shit in 2036 too. #glazersandineosout

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@HBK_Memes @actorvijay Understand that Vijay Sangeetha has been over for 5 years plus. Unfortunately impossible to resolve it no matter how much you guys want

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

If you want to believe Anupama that’s totally fine. But it’s not unreasonable to say it’s fair to hear both sides before throwing the under person under the bus and branding him abusive etc. anyway the important thing is people get out of relationships they don’t like

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@Ajumplakdibampa Your first sentence is not gospel truth. One side is talking, the other is silent. So some believe choose to believe what they want. If there was proof then of course your stance would be logical

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

Good points here and backs up my view that Obama betrayed the US and the world in 2012 by not really trying to talk to moderate white voters. He allowed demographics to win for him while ignoring the dissatisfaction. Romney would have been better in the long run. No Trump etc

[Cassie Pritchard @hecubian_devil]

IMO Woke 1 really starts after the Obama 2012 victory because it was a mobilization-rather-than-persuasion victory. He lost the white vote by 20(!) points, lost the South, still won comfortably.

There was a great deal written about how this dominating coalition of minorities + urban/educated whites, with particularly good margins among young voters, was just the beginning of a long-term trend that would deliver, if not something quite as a durable and long-lived as the New Deal coalition, then close to it.

Dems needed to simply sit back and let demography work its magic, in time turning Sunbelt states reliably blue (even Texas would fall soon enough...), while older white voters high in racial resentment died out and new younger, diverse, progressive voters took their place.

This deranged absolutely everyone. On the Right, it led to a panicked abandonment of democratic principles altogether, and investment in a political movement that was premised on establishing and entrenching permanent GOP rule by hook or by crook--while simultaneously trying to reverse the demographic tide that was sure to overwhelm them (through e.g. stemming new immigration). I really believe their derangement was less about Obama himself being Black, and much more about their sense that the *electorate* could now overrule the supermajority preferences of the white vote--something wholly unprecedented in American political history. No one had won a national election while losing the white vote by 20 before. THAT is what made them go insane.

On the broad Left (meaning center-left Dems, liberals, progressives, and the actual Left, which was just starting to reemerge as a genuine force thanks to social media allowing heterodox beliefs to flourish amidst the collapse of the liberal elite's cultural hegemony), this deranged us in a mirror image of the Right: we, too, could abandon the arduous and persuasive work of democracy, and let our demographic destiny carry us into the brighter future. No more pandering to Bubba. Fuck Bubba! We could finally say it! No more of this humiliating Clintonian two-step to appease or at least anesthetize Middle American chuds. We could just fucking steamroll them with our Coalition of the Ascendant.

This, combined with the simultaneous rise of social media platforms as this urgently-contested space for normative cultural power, focused our energies inward: we'd won the Culture War, so now it was time to fight over who got to administer Cultural Reconstruction. The Chuds were doomed, powerless, flailing and moronic (just look at their flight to increasingly absurd and laughable figures like Trump!), and we would get to impose the new order over their Oxycontin-addled complaints. What, then, would that new order *be*? Who would run it? What would they accomplish?

What you see here is a parallel abandonment of basic democratic principles of persuasion and coalition-building; on the Right, the fascist drive to entrench themselves in unaccountable minority rule (clearly the much more serious and evil threat, particularly in a country where the Constitution makes this entirely feasible), and on the Left an intra-elite competition to see who would be in charge of this new coalition that could finally dispense with the debasing and grimy work of mass politics and persuasion.

Of course, we turned out to be completely wrong. Looking at the Obama coalition and projecting it out linearly into the future was a bad idea for many reasons--including that it was pretty tenuous to assume the massive turnout and insane margins among minority voters for the First Black President would simply reappear on demand for any Democrat--and it led to a lot of bad assumptions.

We ended up with a discourse that was honed for internal competition, and relied extensively on social pressure and ostracism--but in a modern, liberal democracy where people can simply leave your political community if they don't like it. And a lot of people did; we successfully ostracized them out of respectable liberal or progressive/leftist institutions and communities, and so they just found new homes on the Right.

And it turned out, of course, that minority groups are not just identity hive-minds which reliably allocate the same proportion of votes to one party or the other independent of any other concerns. "The Black vote," "the Hispanic vote"--even "the youth vote" turned out to be malleable, dependent on candidate quality, economic concerns, ideological fit, just like any other group of voters.

Trump 1 didn't really break the spell because it felt like a fluky, unlucky nightmare. He didn't win the popular vote, the margin was razor-thin in the midwestern Blue Wall, and Hillary was a bad candidate--and despite all that, Dems retained near-Obama margins with voters of color and young voters. Surely, the Coalition of the Ascendant was still on track; this was just a speedbump.

The closeness of the 2020 election and then Trump 2 (with his popular-vote win and the apparent "racial depolarization" of the electorate) fully shattered this narrative. Instead, people remembered we would in fact have to do politics. We would in fact have to compete for people's votes, and persuade them to share our values--and the articulation of those values in policies and behaviors. The center responded to this, as they usually do, by offering immediate capitulation wherever possible to chase the median voter (the center is actually quite bad at persuasion; their response to disagreement is generally to just concede and beg, rather than any attempt to move the audience towards their own positions).

The Left responded, thankfully, by showing a great deal of maturation--away from subcultural/counter-cultural criticism and attempts to pressure elites into adopting our values through social pressure campaigns, instead moving towards actual mass politics. DSA has proven this can work, and is working, even if we are still quite early.

We would be insane to retreat from that lesson; instead we have to double down on it. That's what Woke 2 needs to be--not cynical abdication of values/principles to chase the median voter, but a genuine persuasive attempt to build a Left mass politics. But persuasion, by definition, requires talking to people *who do not yet agree with you*. You can't *persuade* someone who is already *on your side*. It requires enticement, intellectual and emotional empathy (for people you really might dislike, and for legitimate reasons!), and discipline. It is not nearly so satisfying and immediate as putting people in the public stocks of social media for collective humiliation. It is not as simple as imposing your will over the objections of those who don't agree with you.

It requires a certain kind of humility--not "the voters rejected our ideas so we have to get new ideas"; you can still authentically believe what you believe--but a humility about *power*, and about *democracy*. You have to recognize that "I don't have the power to just impose my ideology; and frankly it's good that I don't, because democratic legitimacy is itself an intrinsic good and if we cultivate a democratic mass politics of the Left, that will be more durable and innovative and resistant to attack than anything imposed from above."

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@tirumuru_87 @jsensarma If the government was competent they would tie land reforms together to massive manufacturing initiatives and mandates. I would be all for it. We are heading towards disaster if we don’t give people hope of upward mobility and hectoring youth to work 15 hours a day is no solution

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@jsensarma @tirumuru_87 What you are saying in essence is the poor should know their place and work hard. The Chinese counld force that as they are not a democracy. Here the poor will collect 2k a month taka tak and ration and relax. We need to make work more attractive for them

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@jsensarma @tirumuru_87 The Chinese factory worker can easily afford a flat in the city where he works. Can the Indian do that?

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@jsensarma @tirumuru_87 It's not about starting out. If you want a 22 year old to not spend years on exams and enter factory work, they need to believe that eventually they can reach 30+ LPA by their mid 30s like many IT professionals did. Otherwise they have no hope of buying homes and upward mobility

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

Paisa do kam lo

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

No point in blaming Indian people for not having hunger to work etc. if pvt sector companies don’t pay well. Offer at least 10 LPA plus decent food and accommodation and find me any factor owner who will struggle to find staff in any state. Many lalas on Twitter talking rubbish

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@tirumuru_87 If entrepreneurs today are complaining about not getting staff the issue is low pay. Why aren’t you criticizing entrepreneurs who keep saying they aren’t getting people nowadays? If you pay peanuts you will get monkeys only.

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

These 2 week Masters are an atrocity. 1 week Canada, 1 in Cincy and then the US Open after a week off was so easy for fans to watch and understand. Momentum built up. Now you don’t know when each half plays, when tourneys start and it’s just not fun.

[The Confused Chap @theconfusedchap]

@PranavaBhardwaj Only way to live in a metro city is to have ancestral land you can live in or sell to buy something else