🌕 TwinMoon 🌕

[Caolan @CaolanReports]

For weeks, Irish politicians have dodged questions about the refinery in Ireland supplying Russia’s war machine.

So I tracked down government minister Niall Collins at a farming show.

He refuses to back sanctions & his stance was worse than I expected.

Avoidance.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am a Web3 Ambassador at World Liberty Financial.

There are 12 of us on the team page. 4 are named Trump. 3 are named Witkoff. The page calls us "the passionate minds shaping the future of finance."

600,000 wallets bought our memecoin. They lost $3.87 billion. The family collected $350 million in trading fees. It launched 3 days before the inauguration. 80% of the supply went to CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. I did not choose the names. I designed the allocation, the vesting, the timing, and the distance between the product and the President.

The distance is my best work.

I am the reason these events are unrelated.

World Liberty Financial sends 75 cents of every dollar to DT Marks DEFI LLC. That is the family entity. Zero capital contributed. Zero liability assumed. I wrote this into the Gold Paper. Page 14. The lawyers bound it in white leather. The binding cost more than the due diligence.

Justin Sun invested $75 million. He was facing SEC fraud charges. The SEC dropped the case. He is now our advisor. These events are unrelated.

Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to federal money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon. The SEC dropped its lawsuit against his exchange the same week we listed our stablecoin. Then the exchange settled a $2 billion deal entirely in that stablecoin. These events are unrelated.

Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed of BitMEX pleaded guilty to Bank Secrecy Act violations. All 3 received presidential pardons. Then the company itself was pardoned. $100 million in fines. Gone. An American first. These events are unrelated.

Sheikh Tahnoun of Abu Dhabi paid $500 million for a 49% stake that was never publicly disclosed. Then the administration approved semiconductor exports to his companies over national security objections. These events are unrelated.

Everything is unrelated. I track the unrelatedness on a dashboard I built. The dashboard has 7 columns now. I am proud of the dashboard.

On May 22nd, 220 people paid a combined $148 million to eat dinner with the America First president. Over half were foreign nationals. Justin Sun paid $18.5 million for the first seat. He visited the Executive Office Building the day before. I designed the seating chart. I put it on the Investor Confidence page. That page is doing well.

The team page lists 3 Witkoffs. All 3 are Co-Founders.

Steven Witkoff is the President's Middle East envoy. He testified as a character witness at the President's fraud trial.

His son Zach runs the crypto operation. His son Alex is also a Co-Founder. I have not been told what Alex co-founded.

The father runs the diplomacy. The sons run the platform. The family runs both. That is organizational efficiency.

Barron is 19. His title is Web3 Ambassador. The same as mine. Donald Jr. called the conflicts of interest "complete nonsense." Eric launched a Bitcoin mining company called American Bitcoin. America First. The mining partner is Hut 8. Hut 8 was founded in Canada. America First means the name.

On March 6th, the President signed Executive Order 14233 creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order directs the government to hold Bitcoin. The President's family holds billions in Bitcoin. The executive order appreciates the President's assets by presidential decree. I did not write the executive order. I made sure it looked unrelated to the portfolio.

Trump Media put $2 billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. The ticker symbol is DJT. His initials. The press secretary said it is absurd to insinuate the President profits off the presidency. Forbes calculated his crypto holdings exceed the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower. I would call that absurd too. That is my job.

600,000 wallets bought in. 1 of them asked why she could not withdraw her funds. I told her the protocol was experiencing dynamic market conditions. She asked what that meant. I sent her the Gold Paper. She said she had read the Gold Paper. I muted her channel. Dynamic means the conditions change. The condition that changed was her access.

A congressman called us the world's most corrupt crypto startup operation. We put it on a coffee mug. Ironic merchandise. $45. The revenue split on the mug is also 75/25.

My own tokens vest on a different schedule. I wrote that schedule. That is not in the Gold Paper.

The memecoin funds the family. The family funds the platform. The platform funds the stablecoin. The stablecoin funds the deals. The deals require the pardons. The pardons free the partners. The partners fund the platform. The President signs the executive orders. The executive orders inflate the assets. The assets fund the family.

I am the reason these events are unrelated.

[NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports]

Ukraine exposed a Hungarian military intelligence officer as the handler of a spy network operating in Zakarpattia. Agents were recruited to collect data on Ukrainian air defense positions, military deployments and local sentiment, including potential reactions to the introduction of Hungarian troops. The network also targeted current and former Ukrainian military personnel and used diplomatic channels for recruitment, with multiple agents already detained. #Ukraine

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

Everyone’s missing the real story here.

ZeroHedge is framing this as Jane Street single-handedly causing the 2022 crypto winter. The lawsuit is more surgical than that, and what it actually describes is worse.

A former Terraform intern named Bryce Pratt, working at Jane Street, created a private group chat called “Bryces Secret” with Terraform’s software engineer and head of business development. That chat became a pipeline for material nonpublic information about Terraform’s liquidity positions.

The May 7, 2022 sequence took 10 minutes.

At 5:44 PM EST, Terraform quietly pulled 150 million UST from Curve’s 3pool. No announcement. No disclosure. Within 10 minutes, a Jane Street wallet pulled 85 million UST from the same pool. Largest single transaction in the pool’s history. Combined: 235 million UST drained before anyone outside those two firms knew anything had changed. The peg cracked that night. Six days later, $40 billion was gone.

Then on May 9, while retail investors were watching their portfolios disintegrate in real time, Pratt messaged Do Kwon offering to buy Luna or Bitcoin at “steeply discounted prices.” Kwon told him Jump Trading’s co-founder Bill DiSomma should have already reached out about a fundraise. So Jane Street was front-running the collapse with one hand and offering to buy the wreckage with the other, fully aware of the financial condition it helped create.

This tells you everything about what “providing liquidity” actually meant in crypto.

The firm that allegedly used a private chat room to drain $235 million from a stablecoin pool before retail could react now generates $24 billion in trading revenue through three quarters of 2025. $10.1 billion in a single quarter. More than Goldman. More than JPMorgan’s entire trading operation. Over 10% of North American equity volume. Lead authorized participant for the biggest Bitcoin ETFs.

And this is the second lawsuit from Terraform’s administrator. He already sued Jump Trading for $4 billion in December, alleging Jump inflated UST through a backdoor deal before the implosion. The Jane Street complaint alleges insider information flowed between the two firms. The picture forming is two of Wall Street’s most sophisticated trading operations allegedly coordinating around inside information while retail absorbed the full $40 billion hit.

Do Kwon got 15 years. Terraform paid $4.47 billion in SEC penalties. The institutions that allegedly turned a private group chat into a front-running operation are posting record profits. The question a Manhattan federal judge now gets to answer: when does “market making” become market taking?

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

And there it is: Jane Street was behind the 2022 crypto winter, destroying Terraform by first depegging the token and destroying the ecosystem, then pretending it would rescue Terra, while effectively it was soaking up what little value remained.

[Pekka @vontuchman]

Henkan mielestä tulevaisuuden työnteon kannalta oleellinen kysymys on tämä: Pystyykö tekoäly korvaamaan tulevaisuuden ammatit, ei nykyisiä?

Jos tämä on oikea kysymys, ja aivan hyvin se voi olla, niin sitä suuremmalla todennäköisyydellä olemme kohta työttömiä, sillä tekoälyn tehostama maailma liikkuu joka päivä nopeampaan tahtiin. Kun maailman prosessit automatisoidaan tekoälyagenttien ja robottien avulla, niin jäämme nopeasti sivullisiksi. Ihminen ei voi mitenkään pysyä perässä.

Ajatellaan vaikka täysin automatisoitua tehdasta. Tuskin biologista ihmistä päästetään tuollaiseen edes sisään, se olisi aivan liian vaarallista. Ja jos tämä kuulostaa utopialta, niin ns. pimeitä tehtaita löytyy jo maailmalta (löytyy esim. youtubesta). Niitä kutsutaan "pimeiksi", koska valoa ei siellä töissä olevat esiohjelmoidut robotit tarvitse.

Toinen esimerkki voisi olla pörssi, johon hitaasti ajattelevalla ja taukoja tarvitsevalla ihmisellä on joka päivä vähemmän asiaa. Minäkin tehostan prosessejani tekoälyn avulla jatkuvasti ja olettaisin, että aivan viimeistään vuoden sisään en enää itse päätä omista treideistäni. Lisäksi tokenisaatio on viemässä myös osakemarkkinoita 24/7 -moodiin, jossa kaikki kryptovaluutat jo ovat.

Tunnetko kuinka vauhti kiihtyy? Minä tunnen.
#pekka

[Pekka @vontuchman]

Mitä ihmettä softafirmojen osakkeissa oikein tapahtuu ja kannattaako niihin sijoittaa?

Tässä lupaamani ketju, olkaapa hyvä. 🫡
#pekka #softafirmat

[Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1]

Copper Miners are breaking out against the S&P 500.

An 11YR base breakout is worth your attention.

Dr. Copper is telling you something.

$COPX

[Lookonchain @lookonchain]

A Polymarket trader lost $2.36M in just 8 days.

He made 53 predictions in the past 8 days:
25 winning trades
28 losing trades
Win rate: 47.2%

👉How He Traded

Focused on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA)
Frequently traded spread markets
Bought positions mostly at 40–60¢
Very large bet sizes, often $200K to over $1M per trade
Positions were held to settlement, with no hedging or scaling
In simple terms, these were high-conviction, all-or-nothing bets.

👉Why He Lost

Winning trades usually returned +60% to +150%.
Losing trades settled at $0 (-100%).
Just two or three losing bets were enough to wipe out all prior profits.
With this risk structure, a 47.2% win rate was not sustainable.

👉Key Lesson

In prediction markets, being right is not enough.
Spread markets are high-variance, and without strict position limits,
a few wrong outcomes can destroy an entire account.

👉Takeaway

This trader wasn’t consistently wrong.
He simply allowed single outcomes to define his survival.
In prediction markets, risk management matters more than conviction.

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

9-day $VIX just fell to the lowest level since January 2020!

When 9-day $VIX falls below 9.2 for the first time in over 3 months (e.g. yesterday), $SPX was lower 5 out of 5 times 2-3 days later.

Is this time different because of the bullish Santa Claus Rally?

[Manpreet Kailon @preetkailon]

BREAKING:
CME just halted ALL futures trading because of a cooling failure at their data center.

Read that again… the entire derivatives market froze because a server room got too hot.

This is the same market that moves trillions, sets global prices, hedges entire economies.

What do you think happens when this reopens? 👀🔥

[✙ Constantine ✙ @Teoyaomiquu]

Hello everyone. I am fundraising to get engineering equipment to Ukraine. The fundraiser is currently stuck and I need your help with donating and reposting. The donation link will be in the next post and it is tax deductible in the USA. Here are more details on why this is important:

The funding for Ukraine is drying out. Both human and financial resources are scarce. Engineering equipment helps solve both problems.

This JCB excavator used by one of the UAF brigades has been destroyed. We provided it two years ago and it cost fifty thousand dollars. The excavator has an engine hours meter, similar to a car odometer. In two years it worked for six thousand four hundred hours. It dug positions for howitzers and for the servicemen of the UAF. Six thousand four hundred hours of digging. It was a perfect workhorse for the brigade. It dug more than two hundred retreats for howitzers and crews, saving tens of millions of dollars of equipment and hundreds of lives of Ukrainian defenders.

Unfortunately it was destroyed. Nothing is perfect, but the operator is alive, and with your donations and reposts we can hopefully fund a new machine that will continue saving lives.

To translate it into real numbers:
🚜Machine cost: 50,000$
💸Saved equipment value: 30,000,000$
💛Lives saved: 50+

I know these numbers sound unbelievable, but they are real. I personally remember many cases when crews shared photos and videos of dugouts after bombardments and how they remained safe inside the bunkers.

These excavators are not a simple convenience. They are life saving workhorses that everyone takes for granted.
One machine costs from thirty to sixty thousand dollars, and a truck with a crane to transport them costs about the same.

41,000$/120,000$ fundraised

If you read this far, please consider donating. The link will be in the next post. ⤵️

[🌕 TwinMoon 🌕 @thecrackcookie]

@vontuchman Deepseekin uusi innovaatio mahdollisesti muuttaa tekoälyfundamentteja suht isosti lyhyellä tähtäimellä https://t.co/HlUkanWhMa

[Pekka @vontuchman]

Huomenta sijoittajat. Futuurit punertaa melko reippaasti, yritin selvittää miksi:

- Korean pörssi varoittaa ("investor caution") ylikuumentuneesta SK Hynixin osakkeesta (miksi ihmeessä!?).
- Michael Burry on shortannut Nvidiaa ja Palantiria isosti (put optioiden avulla) ja puskee nyt sitten tekoälykuplanarratiivia (erityisesti Nvidian osalta aika hassu väite).
- Palantir julkaisi taas eilen hurjat lukemat ja ennusteet, mutta ne eivät sijoittajille riittäneet ja osake alas.

Mitä enemmän teknopörssi kuumenee, sitä enemmän nousee myös volatiliteetti, tähän on vaan paras tottua jos haluaa pysytellä menossa mukana...
#pekka

[LUNASTAJA @LUNASTAJA_]

[1/5]
🍂 Lokakuu oli ennätyksellinen kuukausi!
Nordnet:
MTD +42,02%
YTD +158,02%

[Aarne Leinonen LIB @AarneLeinonen]

Illan leikkauskohde: Julkisen sektorin Microsoft-käyttöoikeudet ja lisenssimaksut
1 174 000 000 €/v

Suomi voi siirtyä Linux-käyttöjärjestelmiin ja avoimen lähdekoodin ohjelmistoihin julkisella sektorilla. @VisaPollari'n ehdotus säästökohteeksi. #RohkeuttaPriorisoida

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Trump has said 100% tariff on China is unsustainable.

[jarmo friman @JarmoFriman]

Vix kuukaudessa +54%. Pelko palasi. Myös Fear&Greed meni extreme fear -alueelle.

Nyt testataan, uskaltaako jenkkihallinto pelata kovaa Kiinaa vastaan.

Jos liennytystä ei kuulu, kuumaa ilmaa pihisee kuumilta markkinoilta. Eniten sieltä, missä hype oli hurjin.
Quantum, REE, AI?

[Mihin Sitä Säästäis? @mihinsaastais]

Hieman alle 2 vuotta sitten mun salkku nousi uuteen ennätykseen 31 700€ 🚀

2023 salkkukatsaus: https://t.co/XQWsumiBTt

Nyt 2025 lokakuussa salkun arvo on n. 80 000€ 😳

Tietenkin tästä osuus on mun lisäämää pääomaa (uusia ostoksia), mutta suurin osa on kuitenkin arvon nousua!

Pitäiskö pian tehdä uutta salkkukatsausta? 🧐

[Pekka @vontuchman]

No niin. Katsotaan miten sijoittaminen täällä X:n suomenkielisessä yhteisössä on vuodessa kehittynyt. Vertaan huomenna tuloksia viime vuoden kyselyyn, kysymykset ovat tismalleen samat.

Muistakaa tykätä ja jakaa, niin saadaan laaja otanta. 🙏

1/🧵 #pekansijoituskysely2025