Breaking: Michael Burry says Anthropic's IPO filing shows the whole AI boom is "catastrophically vulnerable"
Below are his reasonings:
1. Anthropic owes $537B for computer power, and pending deals could push it to $800B
2. Anthropic brings in about $65B a year, so it owes about 12x what it makes
3. Half of $537B goes to $AMZN, $GOOGL and $MSFT
4. Anthropic's sales growth slowed from 144% last quarter to 46% this quarter, while its compute costs jumped 78%
Burry says this setup works while AI keeps growing, but one slowdown could hit cause a collapse
@joecarlsonshow The S-1 doesn’t even have gross margins and plus nearly 600B in commitments, against already slowing growth. Just face it bro, AI is cooked.
@drayinvests If you want to let you money sit in what is basically a bond yielding what is probably no better than 0.5% at best, and with a multiple reversion, -5-10% over the next 3-5 years at worst, go for it.
@BBNFL1984@leevalueroach Who will pay for Muse? It's all the same shit. People will use the cheap Chinese crap thats 98% as good and 1/20th the price. Gonna laugh at all the write downs hyperscalers have coming in the next 3-5 years.
At this point, my full exit of $FIX around March / early April this year was relatively well timed and worth the capital gains tax as I redeployed fully into $CSU.
Trailing 6M Performance:
$FIX -16.5%
$CSU +21.65%
@FluentInQuality While it is finite, it's still too large for $CSU to ever have issues in the near future finding targets. It's estimated that there are ~280,000 VMS companies, which is likely to grow with AI. I think they will continue their fractal stratrgy and split into new operating groups.
@Antoniokvan@NotA_Bull Adding just a little here and there but nowhere near what I did earlier in the year. My capital is relatively dried up and I’m not in cash.