chrisea

[mogged.eth @RenDeHero]

What did we learn from this @Polymarket
"Will there be a US Government shutdown?"

Here are some key facts and misinterpretations made and decided upon by Polymarket in this situation:

Deadline Was a Formality :
the deadline was originally formalized when Biden signed the extension on September 26th, shifting the timeline forward.

There was no Shutdown:
the entire purpose of a deadline is to prevent a shutdown by ensuring funding continuity.
Since no shutdown occurred and bill was signed, the deadline was met , it’s final.

The market resolution was disputed twice,
according to Polymarket, it was clarified internally to UMA that this market should resolve as YES.

This means a centralized entity instructed the oracle to declare the outcome. What does this teach us ? It reveals that the claim of Polymarket being entirely public consensus driven is misleading.
As we’ve seen here, this is not accurate.

The oracle in this context serves as a formality, a mechanism to give voters the illusion of fairness and reliability.

What’s the purpose of an oracle if its role is just to formalize decisions already influenced by internal clarifications ?
It diminishes trust and the integrity of the platform.

See you on the next one 🫡

[Squiggly Hair Shanks @redhairshanks86]

the white house, the press and the world say:

there is NO GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN in 2024

@Polymarket says:

there 100% is a government shutdown in 2024

lesson:
prediction markets are not as great as everyone thought during the elections due to oracle manipulation

[0xHyper.ink @0xHyper_]

Welcome to a new #PolyScam shit show by @Polymarket (💩)

This is the event in question: https://t.co/ROLSGXKVje

The bet concerns “The US Government shutdown” (as stated in the title) between August 30 and December 31, 2024.

[ultra @0x_ultra]

14 hours until we find out if @Polymarket is indeed a fair betting platform

history is being made

[chrisea @theDevChris]

@Polymarket https://t.co/UUQTuynphV

[chrisea @theDevChris]

@Polymarket will you also add additional rules here afterwards?

[Anatony @Valrebus]

Attention @FoxNews @joerogan @PhillyD @Reuters - @Polymarket's latest move echoes Robinhood & GameStop! A $14M bet on gov't shutdown saw terms changed last minute from Dec 31 to Dec 20, 2024, protecting "whales" after a bill passed. Did @Polymarket favor big bets, leaving small traders in the dust?

[Squiggly Hair Shanks @redhairshanks86]

$21.8 million at risk

- yesterday sleepy joe passed the bill to AVOID a government shutdown
- every single news outlet, journalist and the white house say: THERE IS NO SHUTDOWN
- other prediction markets like @Kalshi say: NO SHUTDOWN
- only @Polymarket has a 99% of YES shutdown

[CiscoTrader @ciscojmd]

@Polymarket Scam!! How can you let someone change the “outcome” after the the close? Rules were clear and simple… #polymarket

[chrisea @theDevChris]

@loukerner @YourAnonCentral Do you think this market/bet is also being manipulated right now? https://t.co/yoCox7ZNHx

[chrisea @theDevChris]

@YourAnonCentral And there is in fact another bet that is manipulated right now... https://t.co/yoCox80lx5

[chrisea @theDevChris]

@arcus_787 @Polymarket you are completely right, just saw it: https://t.co/hhIsxeVp8p

even crazier what a scam this bet is....

[Squiggly Hair Shanks @redhairshanks86]

kalshi resolved the identical bet as NO
polymarket resolves it as YES

these are opposing statements, only one of them can be true

[Squiggly Hair Shanks @redhairshanks86]

The Polymarket Drama: Act II

let me start by saying: i didn't choose the thug life, the thug life chose me. i have 0 skin in the game on this bet, but people in the comments were calling for me to write about it, so here we are.

the original rules are: the bet should resolve to NO if biden signs the relevant bill to provide further funding until 2025, deadline 31 dec 2024.

this happened yesterday, there is no dispute about it. i put the official press release into the first comment. biden signed the bill, every single news outlet is reporting it.

however, this bet is still at 99% YES. why?

because 2 days ago, polymarket arbitrarily added an addition to the rule: the signing needed to happen BEFORE 20 dec 2024. they added this rule months after the bet already started.

people in the comments are going crazy, threatening to sue polymarket etc.

[Divyansh Thakur @divyans86979806]

@Polymarket why is there is a difference? kalshi is right

[George @george__agai]

The ultimate noise cancellation

[Max Kirchi 🦊 🇩🇪 🏳️‍🌈 | ❤️💚🤍 @max_kirchi]

🥱❌An inside joke gesture towards my close friends from Netherlands. Nothing but respect for how Zwayer manipulated the game tonight.🤝

[Ian Zelbo @ianzelbo]

Apple Maps went all out for the #SuperBowl