The EM Trader

[Anuj @anujcodes_21]

🚨Anthropic just showed a 24-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude.

Taught by the people who built it.

Free. No registration. No paywall.

I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.

Watch it and bookmark it now.

[Clifford Asness @CliffordAsness]

As I read the constant stream of pundits explaining that stocks and bonds being positively correlated lately “destroys the idea of 60/40” or something like that, I think it’s a good time to remind everyone that bonds never mattered all that much in 60/40. Bonds, as almost everyone uses them in something like 60/40, are way less volatile than equities. Equities drive most of 60/40 returns. Bonds have some risk and some risk premium over cash (so 40 in bonds is a bit different, likely better long-term, than putting the 40 in cash). But they do not have enough volatility to really matter much, except, one would assume, in hyper-inflation (so it’s ok to worry a bit, but today’s modest positive correlation ain’t your real worry).

Bonds, as they are conventionally used, dilute equities much more than they diversify equities.

There is nothing wrong with diluting to reduce risk. But it’s not the same as serious diversification.

And, of course, I include this self-serving reminder that there are in fact diversifying assets like trend following and market-neutral equities (and the same kind of reminder that calling a stock or bond “private” doesn’t diversify risk it hides it).

Back to reading about the “Death of 60/40” even though the reports have been greatly exaggerated.

[The EM Trader @theemtrader]

Excellent piece from Financial Times

Global trade majorly depends on the below six maritime trade routes

[The EM Trader @theemtrader]

TTF would likely move towards 65 EUR/MWh in 3Q26 to destroy incremental Asia LNG demand if a full normalization of SoH flows were only reached in late Jul

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*EUROPE GAS PRICES SURGE 50% AFTER QATARI LNG PRODUCTION HALTS

[Stat Arb @quant_arb]

He’s reading the quant arb blog after this…

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

Nicolas Maduro on board the USS Iwo Jima.

[The EM Trader @theemtrader]

50% cash now, everything looks expensive

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*TRUMP SAYS PUTIN, ZELENSKIY TO MEET AT UNDETERMINED LOCATION

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*CITIGROUP PITCHES DEBT-FOR-RECONSTRUCTION SWAP FOR UKRAINE

[Topdown Charts @topdowncharts]

Emerging Markets credit spreads are back to 17-year lows...

Confidence or Complacency?

[Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo @Claudiashein]

Sostuvimos una buena conversación con el presidente Trump con mucho respeto a nuestra relación y la soberanía; llegamos a una serie de acuerdos:

1.México reforzará la frontera norte con 10 mil elementos de la Guardia Nacional de forma inmediata, para evitar el tráfico de drogas de México a Estados Unidos, en particular fentanilo.

2.Estados Unidos se compromete a trabajar para evitar el tráfico de armas de alto poder a México.

3.Nuestros equipos empezarán a trabajar hoy mismo en dos vertientes: seguridad y comercio.

https://t.co/eY61untzNZ ponen en pausa los aranceles por un mes a partir de ahora.

[The EM Trader @theemtrader]

USDMXN is about to implode when the Asian markets open

[The EM Trader @theemtrader]

SP500 posts 23% gain for 2024

[Reflex @getreflex]

Build a Dashboard App in Python (step-by-step explanation with code):

[Breaking911 @Breaking911]

WINNING! Mexico President tells President-elect Trump that she will stop all migration through Mexico.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 4.68%, HIGHEST SINCE MAY 31

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Gazprom Cuts Gas To Austria Off, Just In Time For Winter https://t.co/QQaHSP1ooB

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Markets are putting on Trump trades. Here's what those are: (i) Dollar up broadly, but especially against Chinese Yuan, Mexican Peso and Euro; (ii) US curve steepening on wider deficits; (iii) EM currencies and commodity prices down; (iv) volatility up across all markets...

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇨🇳 #China Politburo Vows to Steady #Housing Market, Up Fiscal Support - Bloomberg
https://t.co/ePKODfVzJL