The Exponential Fund

Accelerating the evolution of humanity.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

In 2025, our returns were 78.53%.

The portfolio was started in March, and so far our only position has been TSLA.

We are very optimistic about the long-term prospects of the humanoid robot.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

Insights derived from discretionary research can be codified into mechanical rules.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

Our portfolio is now 100% in NVDA.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

Our goal is to grow faster than world GDP.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

We have just opened a position in NVDA.

Our current allocation is as follows:
NVDA: 78.02%
TSLA: 21.31%
MSTR: 0.66%

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

A very simple but highly effective risk management strategy is to invest an amount in a security proportional to its market cap.

Because larger stocks tend to be less risky, they deserve more capital.

This is what we’ve done with our MSTR position.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

Today we opened a position in MSTR.

Long term, we are very bullish on BTC and see Strategy as essentially "leveraged bitcoin."

We’ve been following the stock for several years. We bought now because the price dropped below the 200-week moving average, signalling a major pullback.

We believe classic value investors miss many opportunities by being too rigid with entry criteria, such as waiting for a predetermined multiple like a PE of 15. A great company can rise 1,000% over a decade and never reach such a low valuation.

What counts as “cheap” depends on the growth rate. If growth is high enough, even a PE of 50 can be attractive.

In MSTR’s case, the story is different: net income is essentially irrelevant. What matters is the balance sheet.

The 200-week moving average gives patient investors a robust signal for when to buy.

We funded this purchase by selling a small amount of TSLA.

Our portfolio as of today:
TSLA: 97.53%
MSTR: 2.46%

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

At any moment in time, one entrepreneur is absolutely above everyone else.

It is a safe and profitable bet to invest with such a leader.

Right now it is obviously Elon Musk.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

Today we opened a position in MSTR.

Long term, we are very bullish on BTC and see Strategy as essentially "leveraged bitcoin."

We’ve been following the stock for several years. We bought now because the price dropped below the 200-week moving average, signalling a major pullback.

We believe classic value investors miss many opportunities by being too rigid with entry criteria, such as waiting for a predetermined multiple like a PE of 15. A great company can rise 1,000% over a decade and never reach such a low valuation.

What counts as “cheap” depends on the growth rate. If growth is high enough, even a PE of 50 can be attractive.

In MSTR’s case, the story is different: net income is essentially irrelevant. What matters is the balance sheet.

The 200-week moving average gives patient investors a robust signal for when to buy.

We funded this purchase by selling a small amount of TSLA.

Our portfolio as of today:
TSLA: 97.53%
MSTR: 2.46%

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

We are fans of a particular deflationary monetary system.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

@omarcel68 This business will be passed down in the family. Shares will never be for sale.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

In 2025, our returns were 78.53%.

The portfolio was started in March, and so far our only position has been TSLA.

We are very optimistic about the long-term prospects of the humanoid robot.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

We understand the confusion.

There was—and still is—an investing strategy by that name.

We are a corporate entity with the same name, created by the founder of that strategy.

Our portfolio is currently 100% in TSLA.

We have a corporate investment portfolio that does not currently follow said strategy, though it may in the future.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

Although we are a private company, we like to be transparent about our portfolio composition and investment decisions.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

We believe extreme diversification is a mistake.

Diversification only guarantees that one will not achieve high returns.

Low returns remain possible in a diversified portfolio.

In an intelligently concentrated portfolio, it is possible to achieve both a low risk of losing money over the long term and a high return.

For example, our portfolio is currently 100% allocated to TSLA because we believe the market severely underestimates the potential of humanoid robots.

As time passes and our AUM grows, we expect to diversify, but not extensively. Even with dozens or hundreds of positions, we would still prefer to have the majority of the portfolio in a single-digit number of assets.

Many small positions make sense as an "insurance" policy against something catastrophic and unexpected happening to our main large positions.

From this perspective, we would like, over time, to have a small portion of our AUM diversified across brokers, asset classes, geographies, etc.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

We are big fans of the Pareto principle.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

Although our AUM is small (5 figures), it is growing exponentially.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

It has been shown that founder-led companies outperform the market average.

We believe that when a single highly competent person has veto power in a company, it leads to better performance than when decision-making is delegated to a committee.

This is why The Exponential Fund has, and will always have, a single shareholder. Succession is being prepared years, even decades, in advance within the founder’s family.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

We like to invest long term, in big companies, that grow fast.

[The Exponential Fund @theexpfund]

Our mission is to accelerate the evolution of humanity.