Maurya Kumpatla

@UTKnoxville Data Science and Statistics | Neural Nets Substack | @SwishTheory

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@MT_Lazarus @KammH_ His passing was def not good at the time. But I think the cognition displayed in his OREB and STL rates gave room for passing dev in any friendlier context, not just UConn.

Hurley dev is elite, but even he can’t develop elite AST% and A:TO rates for cognition-less players:

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@MT_Lazarus @KammH_ Rebuttal:
a) The traits were always there; center-sized FR with the athleticism + cognition to put up 14 OREB+2 STL are rare w/dev capacity.
b) His underclassman production was nuked by Michigan teams with bad spacing + ball movement.

≥ 6'10, 245 lbs, 12 OREB, 1.8 STL as FR:

[Bennett Herbert @bendog28]

In the 1999 NBA Finals, a veteran Knicks squad tried to stop an up-and-coming Spurs dynasty. History may not repeat itself, but it sure does like to rhyme. Here’s what I’m watching for in the 2026 NBA Finals: https://t.co/4RTNKHp74O

[Max Savin @supersayansavin]

A new approach to the NBA Draft: the Tawny Park Model

[sam wilson @Double_PG]

Here is my final 2026 NBA Draft Big Board.

2500+ word writeup in the substack below.

In short, the top guys here have all-time potential. NIL really crushed the depth of the class.

Replies, DMs, and feedback always appreciated! Super fun cycle, tysm for following along w/me!

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@stocksreaves @j_d_cummings @spacebarNBA I think era-adjusted turnover stats would decrease the recently growing number of qualifiers in queries like this one (players are way better and smarter now vs. a decade ago)... but yes. This class has a fair amount of PGs that can actually dribble and pass w/o TOVs galore.

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

The people who crucify "small" guards for worse defensive translation from RS -> PS conveniently ignore the horrible turnover translation that "jumbo" creators have.

There's a reason the 8 PS teams w/o a true 1 -- rather a wing cosplaying that role -- have the 8 highest TOV%'s.

[Leslie ||🔴⚫🟢 @Okachukwudi]

by all means, if you want a ~20th ranked offense go ahead and fade "small" guards for "big"/combo guards and wings. feels like we get the same, disconnected from reality, discourse after every playoff game

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@j_d_cummings @spacebarNBA Ultimately comes down to these tweets (@stocksreaves). "Small" guards' def. translation from RS -> PS might not be the best, but their TOV economy is invaluable.

The cognition/handling skill - size/tools spectrum is a moving scale; completely writing off one group isn't right.

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@j_d_cummings @spacebarNBA If you have a true "jumbo" creator like 1 of those 3, who can take on large volumes of creation w/o sacrificing TOVs, then that's great. But if you don't, make a non-TOV-suppressing big guard/wing your faux 1, and fade "small" guards, then prepare for poor offensive results.

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@ZoroSoTufff I don’t like it. 2 players that need the ball in their hands to maximize impact since they don’t provide much ancillary value (relative to position) off the ball.

I think AJ caps your team’s ceiling. Flawed primary, but not enough def. + OREB impact to justify moving off-ball.

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@ZoroSoTufff And he definitely shouldn't be a team's faux PG IMO, to answer your question

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@ZoroSoTufff I think AJ suppresses TOVs better than any 6'7+ creator in NCAA history? At least among underclassmen, which is why he's still my #2. But ultimately yes, I don't think he's a true primary.

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@IWannaKnowBall The correlation between TOV% and PS success is that fewer turnovers lead to higher chances of winning a basketball game, and the consensus choice of fading guards for "jumbo" creators has made TOV-economy a rarity in the PS. See the 2nd chart below.https://t.co/OZSnGHVcZC

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@_thedealzone Philly, OKC, NYK, Houston all have true guards with 1-adjacent TOV% (+ DEN has the biggest size to TOV% outlier in history). That was my main point moreso than having a true 1 (poor wording by me).

But yeah, the league collectively fading guards for big wings has led to this:

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@_thedealzone Philly, OKC, NYK, Houston all have true guards with 1-adjacent TOV% (+ DEN has the biggest size to TOV% outlier in history). That was my main point moreso than having a true 1 (poor wording by me).

But yeah, the league collectively fading guards for big wings has led to this:

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@isojay914 Tighter handle def lets you make better decisions. More ball control/dribbling being 2nd nature takes pressure off your cognitive load when making decisions.

Also just the skill/cognition - tools/athleticism spectrum that exists for many reasons that we could spend hours on.

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@whensickvomit Agreed, Ebuka is a really interesting eval

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

@isojay914 I think it's both. Smaller creators' dribbles are typically lower to the ground, so there's less margin for error and more ball control, and they typically have better cognition than taller creators too. The two combined lead to better turnover economy

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

Data is from the 2013-14 season and onwards

Offensive Usage: true shooting attempts, potential assists, and turnovers per game

Adjusted TOV%: turnover rate that accounts for potential assists

[Maurya Kumpatla @TheFlarescreen]

There is no play in basketball more harmful than a live-ball turnover. Why does one group of players get such a bad rep, while the other gets its praises sung all year round?

Salience bias. A tall making a shot over a small is loud, but a small managing TOVs isn't loud.