Wells

just someone who enjoys talking about fantasy sports and anime - most content is on TikTok

[Fantasy Points @FantasyPts]

Meanwhile, usage as a receiver remains a "PPR cheat code" for RBs regardless of the game script or outcome!

Production even increased when trailing or in losses 👀

https://t.co/ZFDxYeIVZ3

[Kyle Borgognoni @kyle_borg]

Rookie WRs & Where They Went:

All the top-100 Picks in @Underdog Best Ball Era (Since 2021)

[Mark Dankenbring @MarkDank]

Been taking a ton of Ray Davis at the end of drafts. Essentially the same outlook as last season and he's 50 spots cheaper while James Cook is 25 spots more expensive.

One of the higher-upside handcuffs and now provides even more leverage if the starter goes down.

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

It's not a perfect or even great way to do this, but..

If we apply Puka Nacua's route tree to Michael Wilson's TPRR, the TPRR slightly increases:

20.0% to 20.4% (MHJ's decreased below)

Average Sep Score percentile also increases:

90.8%ile to 92.7%ile

@FantasyPtsData

[Adam Levitan @adamlevitan]

Seems clear that the NFL liked De'Zhaun Stribling way more than prospect bros, fans, media. Interested in his upcoming camp battle vs. Christian Kirk.

From ESPN's article on what execs thought were best offseason moves:

[Underdog NFL @UnderdogNFL]

Browns unlikely to bid on Brendan Sorsby, per @MaryKayCabot.

[Jared Smola @SmolaDS]

Brendan Sorsby's ranks among the 10 QBs drafted this spring (all 2025 stats) ...

Completion rate: 10th
Adjusted completion rate: 10th
aDOT: 3rd
Yards per attempt: 4th
Adjusted yards per attempt: 3rd
Turnover worthy play rate: 1st
Big time throw rate: 3rd
@PFF passing grade: 4th

[Dwain McFarland @dwainmcfarland]

Dual-threat QBs have always been a cheat code in fantasy football.

But their powers are at an all-time high. We have more high-quality rushing QBs in the NFL, and passing yards are down.

The correlation with next-season fantasy points, broken down by QB passing and rushing across time frames, is pretty telling.

Timeframes: 2011-2015 --> 2016-2020 --> 2021-2025

Fantasy Points Per Game: 0.55 --> 0.36 --> 0.62
Rushing PPG: 0.17 --> 0.28 --> 0.52
Passing PPG: 0.47 --> 0.19 --> 0.35

I don't have easily accessible rushing stats for 2006-2010. But I do have passing, which was at 0.50.

Jaxson Dart, Kyler Murray, and Malik Willis are the three cheapest dual-threat options in 2026 fantasy drafts.

They probably won't all hit, but are reasonably priced, and Dart/Murray have logical paths to improved passing production in 2026.

[Fantasy Points @FantasyPts]

How much does game script affect RBs?

It was the difference between Jonathon Taylor putting up playoff Josh Allen numbers in wins and Tony Pollard production levels in losses 👑 ➡️ 💩

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

Commanders RB updates:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt missed part of OTAs with a “minor hammy issue” - Commanders being careful

RB Coach Anthony Lynn compared Kaytron Allen to Chris Rodriguez - want him to be CRod replacement - best practices will be in pads

https://t.co/g869BFqZRC

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

Many Jaguars nuggets (long):

Up 12/13 personnel to 15th in lg vs 20th in 2025 - still primarily 11

2WR sets (opinion) = Jakobi Meyers (noted good blocker) and Brian Thomas or Parker Washington (interchangeable skills)

Bhayshul Tuten passes eye test

Coen is transparent and noted Tuten made big jump this offseason

Koziol can win the TE2 if he can stay on the field for run blocking

Strange & PW likely get extensions

PW trade unlikely - “looks too valuable”

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

On Kenneth Gainwell & Bucky Irving:

Bucs were excited to get Bucky back at practice

Equally excited to have Gainwell who looked good

Reinforces 1A/1B and mentions it was clear 1/2 with Rachaad White - thinks it will actually be 1A/1B with Gainwell

[Sean Mitchell @smitchell17]

I mean every other OTA it is:

"Parker Washington breakout season"

"BTJ bounce-back breakout season"

"Brenton Strange is the most valuable TLaw Target"

"Bhayshul Tuten breakout season"

"Travis Hunter breakout season"

😂😂

[Pat Thorman @Pat_Thorman]

Lots of chatter about Denver playing faster with Sean Payton giving Davis Webb play calling.

They were already speeding up dramatically.

Bo Nix thrived with tempo. It sparked the offense repeatedly down the stretch.

More speed puts them at the very top with Cowboys and Saints.

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

In terms of playcalling cheat codes:

During Snap Motion > Pre-Snap Motion > No Motion

Last year, skill players saw a 17% YPRR increase on dropbacks with during-snap motion. Or a 43% FP/RR increase!

Via: @FantasyPtsData

[Dwain McFarland @dwainmcfarland]

Michael Wilson and Parker Washington were extraordinary over the second half of 2025 as Year 3 players.

They averaged 19.7 and 14.6 PPG, respectively, from Week 10 through the NFL Playoffs.

However, neither had a meaningful fantasy season before (at least 10 PPG -- aka low-end WR4 territory).

That got me wondering: How often have we seen non-Round 1 or Round 2 NFL Draft picks average 14+ PPG in the second half of their Year 3 to 5 season without a prior 10 PPG fantasy season?

And more importantly, how did they do in the following two seasons?

Hunter Renfrow (2021): 16.8 PPG --> 8.1, 3.0
Rishard Matthews (2015): 15.2 PPG --> 13.3, 11.2
Marquise Goodwin (2017): 14.9 PPG --> 7.9, 4.8
Markus Wheaton (2015): 14.8 PPG --> 5.0, 0.7
Russell Gage (2020): 14.6 PPG --> 11.9, 9.5
Jauan Jennings (2024): 14.1 PPG --> 11.6

For the record, I am not pronouncing this as some in-depth study that 100% defines how we should view Wilson and Washington. However, we shouldn't dismiss this sort of data either, imo. Both carry significant bust potential.

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

Jahan Dotson is the Falcons WR2 (for now):

"His speed will be an important element for Atlanta’s offense down the field, and he will occupy the No. 2 receiver role opposite Drake London."

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

Jordan Mailata on Kellen Moore: He'll "make a great head coach one day", teaching ability is like Jeff Stoutland's.

On adjusting to Kevin Patullo's offense: "There's carryover, but it's no surprise to us in the OL room because of the way [Stoutland] coaches."

On Sean Mannion:

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

First snap of offense for the Packers included Christian Watson and Matthew Golden at WR in 2WR set:

“The first snap of the day on offense: QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs, TEs Josh Whyle and Messiah Swinson, WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden”

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

Which WR stats in the @FantasyPtsData Suite are most predictive of next year's FPG?

- Past production and volume (receiving yards, FPG, XFP/G) are king

- First-read target share performs better than regular target share!

- 1D/RR performs better than YPRR and TPRR!

- Horizontally-breaking routes (the total number) are slightly more predictive than routes in general!