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Red zone expected vs. actual fantasy points per game (via @RyanJ_Heath and @FantasyPtsData)
- Gibbs, CMC, Javonte Williams (!), and Ken Walker all dominating red zone usage
- Chase Brown with worse red zone usage than Kendre Miller :(
QB Adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and completion % over expected (CPOE) through Week 9, per @FantasyPtsData:
Which QBs have been both efficient and accurate this year?
85.8% of Patrick Mahomes' passing yards on TD throws have come after the catch...
Can Josh Downs be a much-needed "downfield threat" in Kansas City?
@FantasyPtsData
Here is a list of WRs who rank top 25 in Separation Score and run over 2 yards per route (YPRR) - min 3 games played/50 routes run (per @FantasyPtsData):
Garrett Wilson
Omar Cooper Jr.
Adonai Mitchell
Zay Flowers
Mike Evans
JSN
Mack Hollins
Ja'Marr Chase
D.J. Moore
Ceedee Lamb
Bottom of the NFL in YACoe/Rec through Week 9 (min. 25 rec), using data points from @FantasyPtsData:
1. Chase Brown (-2.06)
2. Mark Andrews (-1.81)
3. Wan'Dale Robinson (-1.75)
4. DeVonta Smith (-1.71)
5. Michael Wilson (-1.62)
6. Trey McBride (-1.62)
7. Jakobi Meyers (-1.54)
8. Kyren Williams (-1.46)
9. Tyler Higbee (-1.34)
10. Makai Lemon (-1.34)
WR Yards per route run leaders through Week 9, per @FantasyPtsData:
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3.75)
2. Christian Watson (3.21)
3. Zay Flowers (3.05)
4. CeeDee Lamb (2.99)
5. Puka Nacua (2.99)
6. Drake London (2.81)
7. Tee Higgins (2.81)
8. Luther Burden III (2.80)
9. Matthew Golden (2.58)
10. Parker Washington (2.52)
YAC over expected per reception (YACoe/Rec) leaders through Week 9 (min. 25 rec), using data points from @FantasyPtsData:
1. Jaylen Warren (+5.56)
2. Travis Kelce (+4.42)
3. Khalil Shakir (+3.19)
4. Drake London (+3.10)
5. Zay Flowers (+2.95)
6. Mike Evans (+2.89)
7. Parker Washington (+2.70)
8. RJ Harvey (+2.46)
9. Luther Burden III (+2.11)
10. Harold Fannin Jr. (+2.11)
"Expected" YAC per reception is what a typical pass-catcher with the same aDOT, designed target rate and contested target rate gains after the catch.
aDOT drives 47% of the expectation, designed targets 33% and contested targets 21%.
YAC over expected is actual YAC minus expected YAC
Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt leaders through 9 weeks, per @FantasyPtsData:
1. Trevor Lawrence (8.46)
2. Brock Purdy (8.39)
3. C.J. Stroud (7.98) 👀
4. Joe Burrow (7.95)
5. Jared Goff (7.59)
6. Patrick Mahomes (7.56)
7. Josh Allen (7.46)
8. Jordan Love (7.34)
9. Kirk Cousins (7.10) 🏹
10. Drake Maye (7.00)
Michael Penix among 35 QBs
Turnover-worthy throw rate: 7.0% (worst)
Accurate throw rate: 54.3% (6th-worst)
Drake London among 73 WRs
Yards per route run: 2.81 (6th-best)
Yards per target over expected: +2.79 (6th-best)
Drake London is producing in spite of his QB, not because of him.
All of this Jets ASS got me thinking...
Which receiving rooms are separating at the highest rate in the league?
I created a graphic that charts Team ASS vs. Team Route Win Rate (per @FantasyPtsData)
- I added a second Chiefs logo to show where the averages move to after the addition of Josh Downs 🚀
Top RBs in 15+ yard run rate through 9 weeks, per @FantasyPtsData:
1. Jaylen Warren (9.2%)
2. Braelon Allen (9.2%)
3. Jahmyr Gibbs (7.9%)
4. James Cook (7.1%)
5. Blake Corum (7.0%)
6. Bijan Robinson (6.5%)
7. Kenneth Walker III (6.3%)
8. Aaron Jones (6.1%)