Kyle

Helping you win your Fantasy Football Leagues through data driven analytics, insight, and guidance. Content Creator at @FantasyPts. I like making Excel Charts

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@DynastyFBDad I don’t love it because I still like Achane’s long term outlook

I would much rather try to send Tet + another asset for Jettas by himself

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

As much as I love the talent and player, De’Von Achane is probably going to be one of my biggest Redraft fades in 2026

- The Dolphins are projected to be a bottom-3 offense, and have the 2nd-hardest strength of schedule in the league

Over the last 5 seasons, there have only been 2 top-10 fantasy finishes from an RB on a bottom-5 scoring offense (per @fantasypointsdata)

- Derrick Henry (2022) - 19.1 FPG (RB4)
- Breece Hall (2023) - 17.1 FPG (RB2)

That's an incredibly low hit rate, with only a future Hall of Famer and a player who scored 34.3% of his total fantasy points in the final 3 games of the season achieving league-winning production

- Achane has this level of upside, but it may not be achievable in this Dolphins offense

Under new leadership, this team will move from an offense and QB that favored short, easy pass attempts, often dumping it off to Achane, to a completely new scheme

- It's a small sample size, but Malik Willis has shown us that he doesn't check down as often as Tua and is prone to taking off at a far higher rate

Here are Achane's stats in the 8 games Achane has played without Tua over the last two seasons

- 56.2 Rushing YPG
- 12.5 Receiving YPG
- 2.4 Targets/G
- 10.5 FPG

I don't think Achane will underproduce at this level, but there are certainly RBs with comparable upside, on better offenses that I would rather have in Round 2

- Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Kenneth Walker, or Chase Brown

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@GrampusGG That exact situations accounts for a good percentage of my exposure to both TEs lol

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

Here are my updated Redraft PPR Tier Rankings!

- I've outlined the players I'm most interested in at their Current ADP

The Tiers are far more important than the individual rankings themselves

- In most Tiers, you can almost make an argument for any player to be above another

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@joeflo23 @ddav2015 Damn it, I forgot to note why I had those there lol

Those are players who could fluctuate in rank a lot in the near future

Based on how legal issues play out or how their injury timelines shape out

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@JohnLin81745697 These are mine personally, but I can make a Google Sheet attachment for the next update so anyone can print them out!

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@threesandtds24 I do think I’ve been rather harsh on my evaluation of Hubbard after his poor 2025 season

He was statistically a top-12 rusher in 2024

I think at worst, it will be a near 50/50 split later in the season

But most signs seem to point toward it being Hubbard’s backfield

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

I’ve gone back and forth on him all offseason

I’m starting to buy the take that the Rams offense won’t score as many passing TDs in 2026

They ran hot last season, and were noticeably forcing things to get Stafford the MVP

Add in Myles Garrett, and this offense will be in even more positive game scripts (probably leaning more run-heavy instead)

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@threesandtds24 Yeah, I’m seeing Brooks being taken around the 100 ADP mark in some drafts

That process is definitely getting a little too rich for me lol

What doesn’t make sense is that Brooks ADP has risen like 100 spots in 4 months, and so Hubbard’s has also risen 20+ spots

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@fantasyinstall Cheers!

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@ThreePlayJay What was your squad that took 15th?

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

Here are my biggest fades and draft avoids in Best Ball right now

Planned < 5% exposure going forward

- De'Von Achane
- Saquon Barkley
- Trey McBride
- Travis Etienne Jr.
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Jameson Williams
- Bucky Irving
- Chuba Hubbard
- Jalen Hurts
- DK Metcalf
- RJ Harvey
- Kyle Monangai
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- Aaron Jones
- Khalil Shakir

Complete Land Mines (~0% exposure)

- Jonah Coleman
- De'Zhaun Stribling
- Isaac TeSlaa
- Nicholas Singleton
- Ted Hurst
- Calvin Ridley
- Malachi Fields
- Cooper Kupp
- Chris Brooks

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@DynastyGoat2282 Well they face two of the best defenses in the league in Weeks 15 and 16 (Texans and Seahawks), so lineups with Barkley may not even get to Week 17

I will say that it may be difficult to look worse than their offense did under Patullo last year

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

I worry that the Eagles offense won’t be as good this year, will pass the ball more with their new coaching staff, and has seen their OL regress

Barkley also hasn’t been very remarkable when he doesn’t have a huge runway ahead of him

Plus, he has one of the worst playoffs schedules in Best Ball tournaments

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

Alvin Kamara is completely toast as a rusher, but he can still perform as a receiver out of the backfield

- Kamara dealt with an MCL sprain and lingering ankle issues last season

This could seriously cut into Travis Etienne's upside, who was already going way too high in Best Ball contests

- Etienne ADP: 28.4 (RB15)
- Kamara ADP: 190.6 (RB57)

39.9% of Etienne's fantasy points came from his receiving production alone in 2025 (per @FantasyPtsData)

- 6 of Etienne's 13 total touchdowns came on receptions, including 3 in Week 15 when the Jaguars beat up on the lowly Jets

Etienne wasn't even that impressive as a rusher last season (despite having the 13th-best run-blocking OL)

- 4.35 YPC (RB27)
- 3.5% Explosive Run Rate (RB35)
- 47.4% Success Rate (RB37)
- 0.13 MTF/Att (RB32)
- 2.07 YACO/Att (RB34)

I think Kamara's injuries, along with the Saints anemic offense under Spencer Rattler played huge roles in his disappointing season

Here is how Kamara performed just two years ago (2024)

- 6.2 Targets/G (RB1)
- 38.8 Receiving YPG (RB1)
- 1.93 YPRR (RB1)

Hell, even most of Kamar's 2024 rushing metrics were better than Etienne's in 2025

- 4.17 YPC
- 4.4% Explosive Run Rate
- 51.3% Success Rate
- 0.13 MTF/Att
- 2.25 YACO/Att

I still expect Etienne to be the lead back, but I just don't think he will possess the upside that seems to be priced into his ADP

[ProFootballTalk @ProFootballTalk]

Kellen Moore: Alvin Kamara reported, can fit in our offense well. https://t.co/oZTn8fftQx

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@DildoSwagg1nss Definitely, but being the other WR on the field on 2WR sets will help a lot

Watson is also in a contract year, and if he can’t stay healthy for a full season, I don’t know if the Packers re-sign him

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

If you are not a top-3 contender in your Dynasty League and own AJ Brown, he is a fantastic sell high right now

- Yes, I still love the fit in New England, and still have him ranked fairly high in redraft for 2026

However, the fact that the LA Rams planned on trading for AJ Brown, but backed off due to his medical history, is concerning for Brown's long-term outlook

- Brown dealt with a hamstring issue early on last season, after having knee problems the year before (he has a "degenerative knee condition")

Brown has also been on a decline in terms of average separation score over the last 4 years (per @FantasyPtsData)

- 2022 ASS: 0.218
- 2023 ASS: 0.174
- 2024 ASS: 0.163
- 2025 ASS: 0.072

I know a lot of people (especially Patriots fans) in my Dynasty leagues who would be willing to overpay for Brown right now based on the hype he's receiving

- You could tier down to a younger high upside player and get some 2027 last 1st round draft compensation on top of that

Recent trade example on KTC: Matthew Golden + 2027 1st

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@That_Irish_Guy8 What does him not playing in the NFL yet matter at all?

There are plenty of rookies who are landmines lol

It’s a bad draft class

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

@DildoSwagg1nss I’m fine with that as well, it was just one recent example of a young player + a 2027 1st for Brown

I didn’t love Golden’s draft profile, but he should at least have more opportunities to shine in Year 2

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

I want to revisit this chart and take a look at the teams that ranked lowest in creating 3.0+ YBCO/Att last season

[Raiders, Browns, Chargers, Patriots, Texans, Giants, Chiefs, and Saints]

My goal is to evaluate their offseason moves and whether those moves will help create more upside for their RBs in 2026

1. Cleveland Browns: 1.13 YBCO/Att (31st)

- Quinshon Judkins Best Ball ADP: 55.1 (RB24)

The Browns added 3 linemen in free agency and 2 in the draft (which included Spencer Fano with the 9th overall pick)

- They hired former Ravens OC Todd Monken as HC
- They hired former Ravens Run Game Coordinator Travis Switzer as OC
- They hired former Ravens OL coach George Warhop as their new OL Coach

I also expect Deshaun Watson to be their starting QB in 2026, rounding out decent improvements across the board for this offense, especially with the OL

2. Las Vegas Raiders: 1.06 YBCO/Att (32nd)

- Ashton Jeanty Best Ball ADP: 11.6 (RB6)

The Raiders added Tyler Linderbaum in free agency (one of the best run-blocking centers in the league), and should get LT Kolton Miller back at full health

- They hired Klint Kubiak as HC (offensive genius),
- They hired former U of Iowa RB coach Omar Young as their new RB Coach
- They hired former Seahawks Run Game Coordinator Rick Dennison as OL coach

This was the worst offense in football last season (14.2 PPG), and I expect this to be one of the most improved teams in 2026

3. Houston Texans: 1.27 YBCO/Att (30th)

- David Montgomery Best Ball ADP: 49.2 (RB21)
- Woody Marks Best Ball ADP: 144.7 (RB45)

The Texans haven't had an OL that's graded top-20 in run-blocking since 2015 (lol)

This offseason, they've added 3 linemen in free agency and drafted two more in April (including Kyelan Rutledge with the 26th overall pick)

- The Texans have not made any coaching changes that affect their run game

My main concern for Montgomery is that he goes from a top-tier offense with a high-end OL to a mid-tier offense with a mediocre OL at best

- Still, he should see a 70% snap share with all the goal-line work

4. New York Giants: 1.68 YBCO/Att (24th)

- Cam Skattebo Best Ball ADP: 43.7 (RB19)
- Tyrone Tracy Best Ball ADP: 130.3 (RB43)

The Giants added two linemen in free agency and drafted Francis Mauigoa with the 10th overall pick

- They hired former John Harbaugh as HC
- They hired Matt Nagy as OC (gross)
- They hired former Browns OL coach Mike Bloomgren as OL coach (meh)

Cam Skattebo already saw the lowest YBCO/Att in the league last season (1.24 yards), so you can really only go up from there

- I like the OL additions, but the coaching changes don't inspire me quite as much, and Skattebo is coming off a major leg injury (he's still a beast though and looks to be ready Week 1)

5. Los Angeles Chargers: 1.59 YBCO/Att (27th)

- Omarion Hampton Best Ball ADP: 15.8 (RB9)
- Kimani Vidal Best Ball ADP: 213.9 (RB68)

The Chargers added C Tyler Biadasz in free agency, plus they'll get Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back to health (this will be the most improved OL in 2026)

- They hired Mike McDaniel as OC (offensive genius)
- They hired former Dolphins OL coach Butch Berry as their new OL coach
- They hired a former Dolphins offensive assistant as their new RB coach

The Dolphins staff that the Chargers brought over were able to create the 3rd-highest rate of rush attempts that saw 3.0+ YBCO/Att last season

- Hampton had a 16.2% explosive run rate on attempts where he saw >3.0 YBCO/Att last season (RB8)

Not only do I think that the Chargers will have one of the best offenses in 2026, but one of the most explosive run games as well

6. New England Patriots: 1.82 YBCO/Att (18th)

- TreVeyon Henderson Best Ball ADP: 48.5 (RB20)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Best Ball ADP: 75.3 (RB28)

The Patriots had the worst OL in the league by a mile in 2024, but ranked 14th in run-blocking last season

They've since added Alijah Vera-Tucker in Free Agency and drafted Caleb Lomu with the 28th overall pick

- There were no significant Patriots coaching changes that will affect their run game in 2026

TreVeyon Henderson was only effective last season when he saw 3.0 YBCO/Att, so any improvement to the OL could help his bull case

- I still think Rhamondre Stevenson is the better all-around RB and value pick at their current ADPs

7. Kansas City Chiefs: 1.54 YBCO/Att (29th)

Kenneth Walker Best Ball ADP: 16.5 (RB10)

The Chiefs' OL was awful last season, ranking 27th in run-blocking, and they've made zero additions in free agency or the draft

- They hired former Bears RB coach Eric Bieniemy as their OC
- They hired former Oklahoma RB coach DeMarco Murray as their new RB coach

One reason the Chiefs' OL was so poor in 2025 was due to injuries

- LT Josh Simmons missed 9 games
- RT Jawaan Taylor missed 5 games
- RG Trey Smith missed 5 games

Kenneth Walker will be the best RB the Chiefs have had in years, but outside of C Creed Humphrey, this OL likely won't be very good

8. New Orleans Saints: 1.58 YBCO/Att (28th)

Travis Etienne Best Ball ADP: 28.3 (RB15)

The Saints had a run-blocking OL that ranked bottom-5 in the league, but dealt with several injuries to key linemen

C Erik McCoy missed 10 games
RT Taliese Fuaga missed 3 games
LG Dillon Radunz missed 5 games

They added David Edward in Free Agency and drafted Jeremiah Wright in the 4th round

The Saints did not make any coaching changes that should affect the run game

Kellen Moore is a great HC, and I expect this offense to improve in Year 2 under his leadership, but I still believe that Etienne is moving to a worse team with a worse OL than he had in Jacksonville last season

Most of Etienne’s upside was tied to his role as a receiver, and if Kamar is retained, that upside feels capped

[Metrics courtesy of @FantasyPtsData]

[Kyle @KyleM_FF]

I've been playing around with run-blocking data in the @FantasyPtsData suite and found something potentially interesting

- Across the league, only 27.8% of rush attempts saw 3.0+ YBCO/Att, but 59.0% of all rushing fantasy production occurs on those attempts

Here is how every team ranked in terms of how often they created those attempts in 2025:

I'll take into account OL offseason changes, but this alongside my normal OL rankings could help project the upside of RBs moving to new team in 2026

- David Montgomery going from Detroit to Houston for example (huge downgrade in terms of OL play)

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

McConkey went from an 89th percentile slant route rate in Weeks 5-10 to just the 24th percentile in Weeks 11-18.

Slants are arguably the highest-value route for fantasy football.

Below are the average YPRRs and TPRRs for each route type since 2022 (via @FantasyPtsData)