The Free Dominion™

Markets. Trading. Freedom.
Weekly market notes plus an occasional dive into my exploration of freedom.
For my daily market thoughts, follow @vixedsignals.

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

@volstreetj https://t.co/tOCmXc3C18

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $DJX $DIA $VIX $VVIX $VX

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

Are we priced for perfection? In this week's @volstreetj episode I revisit what the extreme level of dispersion in the S&P is telling us. I also dissect a noteworthy divergence between the HRV & EWS models, & how their outputs align with other mixed signals I'm tracking.

Link👇

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

@volstreetj https://t.co/PygLCwut9x

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $DJX $DIA $VIX $VVIX $VX

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

Compelling divergences are emerging in markets. In this week's @volstreetj episode, I break down the HRV model recovery vs an elevated EWS, one-month implied correlation hitting a 5-handle, chronic undervixing, the negative VRP, and shifts in the LQD/IEF ratio.

Link to episode👇

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

@volstreetj https://t.co/wA4Fpja9sl

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $DJX $DIA $VIX $VVIX $VX

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

Evidence points toward growing market vulnerability. In this week's @volstreetj episode, I break down stress accumulating in my market models, a flattening VIX futures curve, a compressed VRP, credit spreads widening, and crowded speculator positioning.

Link to episode👇

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

https://t.co/5clr76BN2J

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $DJX $DIA $VIX $VVIX $VX $BKX $SOX

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

It was a short but eventful week in markets as equities and VOLs try to find their footing in an environment where macro headlines, the Fed, major IPOs, and significant expirations are all impacting flows.

Lots to explore in episode 30 of @volstreetj, link👇

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

https://t.co/u08I3HDy1j

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $DJX $DIA $VIX $VVIX $VX $BKX $SOX

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

A late-week recovery crushed VOLs, resetting the market's defensive cushion. In Ep. 29 of @volstreetj, I explore how the VX curve absorbed the sell-off, trajectory shifts in the HRV and EWS models, and what broadening sector rotation suggests for risk.

Link to episode👇

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

@volstreetj https://t.co/mE8XSuPZhW

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $DJX $DIA $VIX $VVIX $VX

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

A Friday surge sent VIX to 21.50, shattering a month-long compression regime. In Ep. 28 of @volstreetj, I explore Friday's breakdown in market mechanics, spikes in COR1M and the EWS model, and what the flatter VX curve suggests for the risk environment.

Link to episode👇

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

https://t.co/sdzTiDzdlX

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $DJX $DIA $VIX $VVIX $VX

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

This week we analyze the health of the vol market & rotational mechanics, driven by active dispersion & historic correlation lows.

A deep dive into:
• COR1M at rare lows
• Market HRV in strong "risk on" mode
• Steep contango in VIX
• Single-stock variance

Link to video👇

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

https://t.co/3muHwYoA5f

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

This week I examine market resilience & the VOL complex, breaking down why structural health continues to defy macro stressors.

• Market HRV framework
• VIX compression
• VX curve dynamics
• Volatility composition
• Index rotation
• A⤵️ in liquidity
Full deep-dive👇

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

https://t.co/8CdMHjwQ7Q

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

Healthy market rotation and a resilient VIX term structure continue to counter downside momentum. This week, I dive into market mechanics, another VIX/VVIX correlation shift, mixed credit, and risks in the bond market.

Full episode👇

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $VIX $VVIX $VX

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

https://t.co/TYoDrrAdYJ

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $VIX $VVIX $VX $DJX $DIA

[The Free Dominion™ @thefreedominion]

The move since 3/30 has been 💪but there's evidence the speed is causing stress. Dislocations warrant watching:

• VIX/VVIX/VX correlations are plunging
• Parabolic Nasdaq outperformance over Russell
•Market up/vol up in NDX
• Overvixing despite SPX at ATHs

Link to episode👇