thekbuzz

Decoding global macro shocks & economic fallout. Actionable intelligence & strategic playbooks to navigate the noise.

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[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

Tuesday’s 20-year auction cleared. That is not the story.

$13bn stopped at 5.420%. Indirects — the foreign/official proxy — fell to 52.5% from 62.9% in August. Directs had to take a record 30.7%.5.42% is the price. 52.5% is the buyer. 🧵(1/5)

#Treasury #Japan #BOJ #Macro

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸 Trump's approval rating has risen from a record low, but it still isn't looking good ahead of the midterms...

35% approve of Trump's performance in the White House, up from a career-low 33% in late August.

Americans are also expressing growing support for Democrats taking control of Congress, according to new polling by Reuters/Ipsos.

Participants were also asked how they feel about Trump's $5,000 pledge (which many see as a bribe):

63% of Americans disapprove of it, and when broken down by party, that's 9/10 Democrats and 4/10 GOP.

Trump's popularity has been trending down in a big way since he launched the war against Iran in late Feb.

These midterms will determine whether he will have control of his agenda in his final 2 years in office...

And right now, it isn't looking like he will.

Source: Reuters / Writer: Michael

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

Fact check the only claim that can be checked: “more money in your pockets.”U.S. diesel just printed a record $6.27 a gallon. Regular gas is $4.33. The 30-year mortgage is 7.22%. The 10-year tagged 5%. Tuesday’s 20-year stopped at 5.42% with foreign demand at a record low.That is not more money in pockets. That is a war premium, a term premium, and a refinancing bill. “Abolish prisons / abolish national defense” is a slogan. The curve is the record.

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

@CNBC The survey is late.The 20-year already printed 5.42% with indirects at 52.5%. That is not a one-and-done funds-rate story. Oil, issuance, and a thinner official bid are in the long end. Wednesday can move the front end. It cannot take the second hike out of the curve.

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

The Fed moves the front end on Wednesday. The long end already voted.

If Ueda says Friday the path is higher, not finished, this auction is episode one — not a one-off. (5/5)

Full note: https://t.co/Kzu0GsEsdl

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

Tuesday’s 20-year auction cleared. That is not the story.

$13bn stopped at 5.420%. Indirects — the foreign/official proxy — fell to 52.5% from 62.9% in August. Directs had to take a record 30.7%.5.42% is the price. 52.5% is the buyer. 🧵(1/5)

#Treasury #Japan #BOJ #Macro

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

Fifteen years of yen-funded U.S. duration is breaking.

A 3% JGB plus the hedge cost is no longer free carry against a 5.42% U.S. 20-year. Oil lifts both term premiums. Treasuries sell, JGBs follow, the next U.S. long auction inherits a thinner foreign bid.

One loop. (4/5)

[Financial Times @FT]

Stubbornly high inflation has set Donald Trump and Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh on a collision course this week as markets prepare for the central bank to raise interest rates in defiance of the president’s demands.

Read more: https://t.co/pskUAFY7UZ

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

@FT This is not a personality clash.

He put a war premium into oil, then told the Fed to keep rates down. Brent still above $105. The 10-year tagged 5%. Diesel is in the core.

Warsh is not defying Trump. The curve already did. A hike this week is just the front end catching up.

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

He opened a war that squeezed Hormuz, shut a Saudi pipeline, and put Brent above $105.

Then he says inflation is Biden’s fault — “except oil.”

Oil is the inflation. Diesel, the 10-year at 5%, the 30-year at 5.3%. You don’t get to start the fire and disown the smoke.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says price increases being seen in the US were caused by "Joe Biden, not Trump."

Trump says that oil prices were higher under Biden than they are right now and prices are "coming down sharply" with the "temporary exception of oil."

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

@KobeissiLetter He opened a war that squeezed Hormuz, shut a Saudi pipeline, and put Brent above $105.

Then he says inflation is Biden’s fault — “except oil.”

Oil is the inflation. Diesel, the 10-year at 5%, the 30-year at 5.3%. You don’t get to start the fire and disown the smoke.

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

Last week established the rate. Monday established the victim.

The crash narrative wanted a down day in everything.
The plumbing produced a down day in the cash flows that sit farthest from today.

Full note: https://t.co/Kzu0GsEsdl

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

Monday was not the crash the 5.3% long bond was supposed to deliver.

S&P −0.5%. Nasdaq gave back the same after an early air pocket. The Dow barely moved.Under that calm surface, chips were cut ~6% — and the 10-year tagged 5.00%. The index held. The capex stack did not. 🧵(1/7)

#Macro #Treasury #AI #Fed

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

Wednesday cannot unwrite Monday.

A 25bp hike is almost fully priced. The Bank of Japan follows days later.

The front end is catching up to a long end that moved weeks ago. Watch the Fed only for whether it pretends the 10-year did not already vote. (6/7)

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

@IkemdinachiO I feel you. I studied a lot too, and I failed plenty while trading stocks. Macro is hard. It really is. Let’s just keep going together.

[thekbuzz @thekbuzzorg]

The 30-year U.S. Treasury at 5.35% isn’t a supply mismatch or a sticky inflation print. It’s a structural margin call on global capital markets.

The post-2008 era of frictionless capital is dead, and the discount rate just broke the system. 🧵👇(1/6)

#Macroeconomics #USTreasury #MarginCall