The Lazy Quant

US options and volatility, checked against the data before I post it. Three trading books. Building iOS apps in public on the side. Not financial advice.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

The MBA's 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.30%. On a $400,000 loan that is $2,742 a month, against $2,476 at 6.30% a year ago and $1,612 at the Jan 2021 low of 2.65%. Freddie Mac's rate was 7.03% on 24 Sep, its highest since Jan 2025.

#Mortgage #HousingMarket #InterestRates

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

Micron reports after today's close. After its last 8 reports it moved a median 9.1% the next day, and 5 of 8 beat 7.4%. The worst was a 16.2% drop in Dec 2024. Friday's at-the-money straddle costs about $7,930 a contract, 7.4% of the price.

#MU #Micron #Earnings

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

August core PCE came in at 3.0%, a touch above July's 2.98%. At 10:45 ET, December fed funds futures priced 4.11%, down 4.5bp on the day and 23bp above the 3.88% effective rate. March 2027 fell 5bp to 4.385%.

#PCE #FedFunds #Inflation

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@zerohedge At 10:45 ET, December fed funds futures implied 4.11%, down 4.5bp from Tuesday and 23bp above the 3.88% effective rate. March 2027 fell 5bp to 4.385%. Core PCE was 3.0% for August, a touch above July's 2.98%.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@Hedgeye The BLS average hit $0.196 per kWh in August, 37% above August 2021's $0.143. The 12-month rise has slowed to 3.7%, from 8.8% in June, and the fastest pace in this run was 16.9% in Oct 2022.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@unusual_whales At 7.30%, a $400,000 30-year loan costs $2,742 a month, against $2,476 at the 6.30% of a year ago and $1,612 at the Jan 2021 low of 2.65%. Freddie Mac's weekly rate was 7.03% on 24 Sep, the highest since Jan 2025.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@pequityresearch AMD is up 182% in 2026, from $214.16 at the end of December to $604 this morning. Nvidia is up 23.9% over the same stretch. AMD's record close was $630.63, on 25 Sep.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@DeItaone By 10:42 ET, Nov diesel (heating oil) futures were up 5.4% at $4.76 a gallon, and Nov gasoline was up 4.5% at $3.27. WTI Nov crude was up 2.1% at $91.23, so the products are running well ahead of crude.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@TrumpDailyPosts Gold (Dec) is still down 7.3% over the past month. In GLD options expiring Friday, the biggest put pile is 12,094 contracts at $380, just under the $382.58 price, and the biggest call pile is 17,445 contracts at $400, 4.6% above it.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@blondebroker1 Alphabet was up 2.4% at 10:52 ET. Only 17 of its 186 sessions in 2026 closed with a bigger gain, and the stock is up 11.7% on the year.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@saylor 2026 so far: bitcoin is down 4.3% at $83,769 and Strategy (MSTR) is up 0.9%. The S&P 500 is up 12.7%, the Nasdaq 100 21.1%, Nvidia 23.9% and WTI crude 60.3%. Gold (Dec) is down 6.6%.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@StockOptionCole Meta closed at $578.08 on 1 Sep and $777.59 on 24 Sep, a 34.5% gain in 16 sessions. At 10:52 ET today it was $730.07, 6.1% under that 24 Sep close.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@TheLongInvest @YouTube Micron reports after the close. Over its last 8 reports the next-day move had a median of 9.1%, and 5 of the 8 moved more than 7.4%. A straddle expiring Friday costs $7,945 a contract, or 7.4% of the share price. The biggest reaction was a 16.2% drop, in Dec 2024.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@ShardiB2 Tesla closed lower four sessions in a row through Tuesday and was down another 1.0% at 10:52 ET. That leaves it 8.1% under the 23 Sep close of $380.12. Its longest losing streak in the past year was 7 sessions.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@Banana3Stocks At $230.51, Nvidia is at its highest price since 14 May, the day of its $235.20 record close. The biggest open-interest pile for Friday's expiry is 77,437 calls at $227.50, now in the money. The biggest put pile is 25,372 contracts at $215.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@jimcramer Apple fell 2.7% on Tuesday, from $338.40 to $329.40. By 10:52 ET today it was back at $338.88, up 2.9%, which is above Monday's close.

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

The Nifty 50 is down 12.8% in 2026 (22,790 at 12:54 pm IST), its worst January-to-September since 2011. Only 2008 (−36.1%) and 2011 (−19.4%) were worse. September alone is down 5.4%, the third-worst September since 2005, after 2008 and 2018.
#Nifty50 #StockMarketIndia #NSE

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

TCS, Infosys and Wipro are each down more than a third in 2026 (−35.4%, −36.4%, −37.6% at 12:41 pm IST), against −12.8% for the Nifty 50. Nifty IT fell on 16 of September's 21 sessions, the most down days in a month since January 2008.

#NiftyIT #Nifty50 #StockMarketIndia

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@ThePreserverofU "Journal your thoughts" is the one most people drop, because writing it out at night is a chore. I built Echo so you can talk for a minute instead: it transcribes on the iPhone and files the entry under Journal. https://t.co/bSgYK2HII6

[The Lazy Quant @thelazyquant]

@nonagesimus99 Same. I got tired of guessing, so IronFuel reads one photo of the plate and puts the protein next to the calories, as a range, so you can see how far short a meal like this leaves you before dinner. https://t.co/6GzADWAazx