MacroEngine

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@TheMacroEngine

Built a quantitative macro model tracking real yields, liquidity & credit in real time. Posting the signals and trades daily. Check out the website below.

Joined August 2025

239 Following

714 Followers

1.3K Posts

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@TheMacroEngine

22 days ago

If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher 10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not. Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation. CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion. Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence. Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints. Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape. The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it. Watch credit, not the 10Y level. @Globalflows

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher

10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not.

Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation.

CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion.

Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence.

Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints.

Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape.

The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it.

Watch credit, not the 10Y level.

@Globalflows

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher

10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not.

Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation.

CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion.

Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence.

Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints.

Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape.

The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it.

Watch credit, not the 10Y level.

@Globalflows

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher

10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not.

Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation.

CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion.

Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence.

Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints.

Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape.

The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it.

Watch credit, not the 10Y level.

@Globalflows

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher

10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not.

Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation.

CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion.

Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence.

Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints.

Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape.

The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it.

Watch credit, not the 10Y level.

@Globalflows

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@TheMacroEngine

about 12 hours ago

@JakeLou9 Job report came out yesterday morning, first Friday of every month. Twice as many jobs created than expected

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth. Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress. Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them. S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference. This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market. Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth.

Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress.

Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them.

S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference.

This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market.

Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

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@TheMacroEngine

about 23 hours ago

In 2022 core CPI was running 6%+, forcing the Fed into the most aggressive hiking cycle in 40 years, rates went from 0 to 5%+ in 12 months. That’s what crushed multiples. Right now inflation is elevated but not spiraling. The Fed isn’t hiking they’re on hold. The rate risk today is “higher for longer,” not “emergency tightening.” That’s a much more manageable headwind for equities.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@KobeissiLetter If anyone’s wondering why we sold off:

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth. Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress. Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them. S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference. This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market. Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth.

Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress.

Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them.

S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference.

This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market.

Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@charliebilello Bitcoin can’t succeed in this macro environment

@TheMacroEngine

4 days ago

We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis. Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment. Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base. The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K Why? Net Liquidity. It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend. No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Fed Assets − Reverse Repo − Treasury General Account = Net Liquidity RRP is cash parked at the Fed by money market funds, not circulating. TGA is Treasury’s checking account. Money sitting there isn’t in markets. What’s left is actually liquidity Direction > level. When it’s rising, BTC should follow

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@TheMacroEngine

4 days ago

We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis. Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment. Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base. The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K Why? Net Liquidity. It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend. No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@KobeissiLetter For those who don’t understand, job report came in better than expected which means rates won’t get cut: bad for stocks https://t.co/kivbo5h6nC

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth. Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress. Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them. S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference. This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market. Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth.

Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress.

Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them.

S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference.

This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market.

Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@KobeissiLetter This is a story of rates, NOT growth. When job reports came in better than expected, it told investors that rates will not be cut… which is bad for stocks. AI Capex is creating jobs, not eliminating them. The economy will boom.

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth. Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress. Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them. S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference. This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market. Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth.

Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress.

Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them.

S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference.

This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market.

Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@StockOptionCole Red bc of job report being more positive than expected-> no chance of rate cuts https://t.co/kivbo5h6nC

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth. Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress. Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them. S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference. This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market. Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth.

Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress.

Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them.

S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference.

This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market.

Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@Globalflows For those who don’t understand: more jobs, higher yields, no chance of rate cuts, bad for stocks. AI Capex is creating jobs https://t.co/kivbo5h6nC

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth. Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress. Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them. S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference. This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market. Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth.

Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress.

Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them.

S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference.

This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market.

Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

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373

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@SelfMadeMastery For those wondering, job report was much healthier than expected, this means no chance of rate cuts which is bad for stocks https://t.co/kivbo5h6nC

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth. Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress. Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them. S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference. This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market. Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth.

Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress.

Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them.

S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference.

This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market.

Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@MaxCrypto For those wondering, jobs came in healthier than expected today, jobs good=no rate cut -> bad for stocks https://t.co/kivbo5h6nC

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth. Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress. Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them. S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference. This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market. Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth.

Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress.

Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them.

S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference.

This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market.

Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@TaraBull Jobs are healthier than had been predicted which means no chance of rate cuts, bad for stocks

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth. Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress. Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them. S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference. This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market. Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Why did we sell off today? The story is in rates, not growth.

Job report came in hot → bond yields spike → equity multiples compress.

Earnings are fine. The economy is fine. AI capex is CREATING jobs, not destroying them.

S&P forward P/E sits ~21x. Every 50bps move in real rates is worth ~2–3 multiple turns. Growth supports earnings. Rates kill multiples. Know the difference.

This isn’t 2022. Core CPI is the only thing that breaks this market.

Watch the 10Y, not the headlines.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@KobeissiLetter Meta is one of the few MAG7 beneath its 200d MA. The broader market is still in a great spot and is only experiencing a small regression today https://t.co/wEniIlPtVQ

@TheMacroEngine

3 days ago

Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue. 1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing 2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars 3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend 4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@KobeissiLetter This is not surprising, inflation and rates are through the roof right now. But somehow we’re also near highs in stocks. That’s because the inflation is driven by growth from AI Capex increase.

@TheMacroEngine

22 days ago

If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher 10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not. Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation. CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion. Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence. Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints. Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape. The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it. Watch credit, not the 10Y level. @Globalflows

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher

10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not.

Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation.

CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion.

Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence.

Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints.

Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape.

The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it.

Watch credit, not the 10Y level.

@Globalflows

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher

10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not.

Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation.

CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion.

Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence.

Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints.

Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape.

The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it.

Watch credit, not the 10Y level.

@Globalflows

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher

10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not.

Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation.

CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion.

Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence.

Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints.

Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape.

The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it.

Watch credit, not the 10Y level.

@Globalflows

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. If you can’t wrap your head around 10Y yield at 4.57% while the market is near highs, please keep reading to understand the credit cycle and why stocks will only go higher

10Y at 4.575%. $SPX near all-time highs. Inflation expectations creeping up. Supposed to be impossible, it’s not.

Yields are rising on growth, not fiscal panic. Real yields barely positive, breakevens stable at 2.3-2.5%, nominal GDP repricing higher. That’s reflation, not stagflation.

CREDIT. HY sub-300bps. IG sub-100bps. Tariff stress test came and went and spreads went mostly unchanged. Corporate cash flows are outrunning the rate burden, the only thing that actually matters for whether higher yields kill the expansion.

Inflation expectations up with tight credit = the market saying nominal growth is hot enough to absorb sticky inflation without breaking balance sheets. That’s a melt-up regime in one sentence.

Real-yield negative still forces capital down the risk curve. Pensions, insurers, sovereigns can’t hit return targets in cash or bonds. They’re structural buyers of equity and credit no matter where the 10Y prints.

Higher yields with no Fed cuts priced and equities at ATHs = the bond market endorsing soft-landing-to-no-landing. The regime needs the Fed not easing into a weak tape.

The kill signal isn’t a hot CPI or a 5% 10Y. It’s HY spreads breaking 400bp while breakevens stay above 2.5%. Corporates losing the race against their cost of capital. Until that shows up, higher yields are a feature of the expansion, not a threat to it.

Watch credit, not the 10Y level.

@Globalflows

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@KobeissiLetter This is just a dip back to 21EMA. The bull market will continue. This was expected and normal

@TheMacroEngine

3 days ago

Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue. 1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing 2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars 3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend 4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

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22

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2K

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@KobeissiLetter It’s all a story of liquidity. Bitcoin can’t survive in this environment

@TheMacroEngine

4 days ago

We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis. Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment. Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base. The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K Why? Net Liquidity. It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend. No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@BullTheoryio Just a bull market dip https://t.co/wEniIlPtVQ

@TheMacroEngine

3 days ago

Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue. 1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing 2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars 3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend 4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

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@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@DudeWhoInvests @brewmarkets Everyone so worried. This is just a dip in the middle of a bull market https://t.co/wEniIlPtVQ

@TheMacroEngine

3 days ago

Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue. 1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing 2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars 3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend 4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. Just a regression to the mean today, the bull market will continue.

1. S&P 500 margins are at an all time high and increasing
2. AI CAPEX is fueling the economy and added billions of dollars
3. The credit cycle is in full swing, credit is cheap and people are able to spend
4. QQQ is far outpacing SPY

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22

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4K

@TheMacroEngine

1 day ago

@KobeissiLetter We are bearish bitcoin. Simply can’t survive in this macro environment https://t.co/UllUDIFlvD

@TheMacroEngine

4 days ago

We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis. Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment. Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base. The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K Why? Net Liquidity. It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend. No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

TheMacroEngine's tweet photo. We are bearish $BTC. BTC doesn’t rally without liquidity. That’s the whole thesis.
Until net liquidity reclaims its prior range, this is a sell-the-rip environment.

Net Liquidity peaked in May 2024, rolled over hard, and is only now attempting a base.

The chart tells the full story, BTC peaked near $130K, cut in half to ~$62K, bounced to $83K, and is rolling over again at $67K

Why? Net Liquidity.

It led BTC up in 2024. It’s been collapsing since May. The recent uptick is noise, not a trend.

No liquidity expansion = no sustained BTC rally

We’ll turn bullish when the data turns. It hasn’t.

1

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1

3

12K

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894

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