Macro Polo

Macro. Grand Strategy. First Principles.

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@mmjukic Sure, but you're spending down the dollar's network effects to fund it. Arguably still worth it.

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@Memetic_Theory Now we’re cooking with gas

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@DarioCpx The Polymarket contract literally resolved that it was closed yesterday lmfao

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@fthegurus The good news is that if/when this graph does (eventually) come down it will be because hourly wages rise not because good falls.

[bone @boneGPT]

"People aren't ready, this is gonna change everything"

You know what people weren't ready for? Fucking mammoths. Tigers eating them. Monkeys ripping their arms off. The black plague. The ice age. Smallpox. Vikings pulling up on the beach. Drinking water that gives you diarrhea until you die. Getting a scratch and losing your whole leg. The Mongols. The Spanish Inquisition.

One volcano can send us back to the dark ages and these safety guys are gonna be shocked. Oh the robots didn't kill us? It was a volcano? Imagine their disappointment as the hot ash rains down on them.

A solar flare is gonna explode your phone in your pocket your legs are gonna be covered in battery acid and your bank account will stop working. You're afraid of a computer program doing math?

"Things are moving too fast" homie you live on a rock that periodically deletes everything. You are one the most luckiest entities in a 100 light year radius living during a golden era. Cheer up.

My ancestors crossed an ocean in a wooden box because they ran out of fucking potatoes.

"The social disruption will be enormous!"

Nigga World War 2? World War 2? Hop in the people carrier we're landing on the beach.

Are these people out of their fucking minds? Do they not know what we've survived already?

A couple decades of air conditioning and people suddenly think oh this is the natural condition of mankind. No. We used to have eight kids because seven didn't make it. You're gonna be fine. Man the fuck up.

Accelerate.

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@LukeGromen @RudyHavenstein

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@LukeGromen They're almost certainly going to try to do it again in October.

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@WeTheBrandon All else equal - exporting diesel raises its price domestically and lowers its price internationally. A ban would reverse this.

Diesel has inelastic demand, which means EU + Asia will just sell assets to try to cover rising costs.

EU and Asia hold a LOT of treasuries.

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@admcollingwood @philippilk They can sell enough to make managing yields much much more annoying for the US, but they cannot sell enough to actually meaningfully change their own fiscal position.

lose-lose

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@signulll Without differentiation the cheapest will win. If were automating knowledge work, most companies don't need RenTech level talent to operate.

US Labs will vertically integrate around high value add sectors, while the enormous majority of inference will be done locally/on Chinese

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@mattparlmer And the only path to a globally competitive civilization electronics industry is through a massive devaluing of the dollar to make its exports more competitive, a rework industrial education nationwide. All in <10 years.

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@RokoMijic One of the saddest stories ever. Under foreign rule for a thousand years - claw to independence and within 30 years on the way to replacement.

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@BoringBiz_ Send the 10y to 6%

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@LukeGromen @mrbriggens I don’t get why people call you anti US…

You clearly know a lot about rooting for doomed situations

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@yacineMTB You can't automate fake jobs

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@fejau_inc The US cannot afford fair value. They’d have to borrow just to make entitlement and interest payments.

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@JacobShap No crying in the casino Mr. Secretary

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@DeepDishEnjoyer WuXi AppTec

[Macro Polo @themacropolo]

@JacobShap The treasury market is about to get liquidated and sold to citadel

[Claude @claudeai]

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