Real Mariners News

The most trusted source for Mariners transactions, roster updates, and coping strategies.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

Can we just marvel at this gem of sweet baby Lou on the Seattle Pilots before they became the Brewers? What a stud.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@ProspectInsider I haven't paid but I love what this includes.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@ProspectInsider This is awesome! Thank you.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

🚨 Hard Pass Alert 🚨

Nothing screams "Mariners baseball" quite like giving up top prospects or millions in cash to import 200 more strikeouts into the marine layer.

​Zach Neto struck out 215 times, hits .197 in Seattle, and Arte Moreno or Stan Kroenke would demand Colt Emerson just to open talks for an average defensive shortstop.

Meanwhile, Teruaki Sato struck out 27% of the time in Japan, and his "defense" at 3B was so erratic he made nearly 50 errors in a two-year span...meaning against MLB speed, he’s basically an immediate DH.

​Why fix our lineup with elite glovework and contact when we can pay a fortune to watch routine grounders leak through and recreate the 2024 strikeout leaderboard? Elite vision.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@rjneu343 @lankyrob6369 @A_Jude He is still until sometime in 2027.

I will be curious to see what Stan does when he fully takes over.

Either way Neto is a goofy trade unless you want more of what we hate.

Otto Lopez is a way better fit, if we're giving up a pitcher and or top prospects.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@MarinerMenace Huh?

Okamoto’s K-rate in NPB was 15%. Sato’s is 30%. In what world are those "the same things"?

​Murakami jumped from 28% in Japan to 35% in MLB.

If Sato makes that same leap, he’s striking out in 37% of his plate appearances at T-Mobile. Hard pass.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@IISwitch2II ...unless you want more of what hate about the Mariners.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

Those all sound nice from 30,000 feet above any critical review of him being a good fit.

He strikes out 30.5%, which in Seattle will be more like 32-35% (He's 33% in T Mobile, 32 in Oakland, 35% in Oracle and 32 in Petco)
He's barely above average +2 OAA defender and +1 FRV
He gets caught stealing 33% of the time.

Pulling fly balls in T Mobile marine layer is going to be like 6~ less homeruns if we took his spray chart and applied park factors. Which I did...

His line drives to T-Mobile cavernous left center turn into routine outs.

Between his SO rates and getting caught stealing he's a typical rally killer. Which is prototypical Jerry and Justin type of guy. 😂

Otto Lopez makes realistic sense. Sato and Neto are silly even talking about. They don't fit unless

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@MarinerMenace Sato is even worse than Neto.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

🚨 SUPER HARD PASS 🚨

His 26% SO Rate in NPB translates to like 30-34% MLB.

Average defender in NPB which will be a negative OAA in MLB

He's super vulnerable to high velo pitchers.

He slashes like .221/.294/.375 75 wrc+ vs LHP.

15-18AAV plus like a 20% fee to buy him out?

He's essentially an expensive Asian Luke Raley 😂

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

In this case he certainly shouldn't. 🙏🏼

The blind spot in this trade is Neto struck out 215 times, has a 30% K rate (that'll rise at T-Mobile), gets caught stealing 33% of the time, it'll take Colt or someone notable for them to even consider.

Also, he's only a +2 OAA and +1 Run Value defender.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@lankyrob6369 @A_Jude Between his 30% SO Rate and the 33% getting caught stealing that'll kill every rally. Also, Arte isn't even taking the call unless we're giving up Colt or something like that.

Sounds like prototypical Jerry and Justin move.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

🚨 Pass 🚨

Neto has 25-HR pop, but a 30.5% K-rate at T-Mobile Park is asking for pain, and the Angels would demand Emerson or Woo just to talk division business.

​I’d rather target Geraldo Perdomo: 26, switch-hitter, cuts the K-rate in half (13.9%), .370 OBP, +16 OAA defense, and keeps our vault safe.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@EverettRockford @bluetoughguy @RefuseToLosePod Dubon is on my top 10 for off-season grabs. He fills so many holes both defensively and offensively. He's like the anti Jerry pick-up however 😂

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@seatownfan73 @RefuseToLosePod Why is he even a target? He isn't a good fit at all for what the Mariners need.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@baryroyshow @RefuseToLosePod Sato is an improvement? How so?

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

🟢 Good fit 🟢

Why Dubón Fits Seattle:

​K-Rate Fix: 11.8% K% kills bottom-of-order rally-killing slumps.

​Prospect Shield: 2.4 WAR floor insulates rookie bats without rushing them.

​Versatility: Gold Glove utility covering 6 spots frees bench flexibility.

​Cost: $8.5M AAV free agent preserves top farm arms and payroll float.

Career vs. LHP: Batting .276 with an 11.5% K-rate and a .740 OPS over 800+ career plate appearances against southpaws.

​No Platoon Drop-Off: He is essentially split-neutral, posting only a minor -3.1% OPS variance against lefties compared to righties.

​High-Leverage Insulation: His single-digit whiff rate against left-handed breaking balls means opposing managers can't exploit him late with a specialist reliever out of the bullpen.

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@EverettRockford @bluetoughguy @RefuseToLosePod Luis is a terrible defender with like a -10 OAA...so where does he fit our roster at 12-15M with a multi year contract?

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

@EverettRockford @bluetoughguy @RefuseToLosePod Also, Jerry and Justin need to unload prospects for proven bats. They're horrible at developing and graduating bats....so they should be trading some prospects this off season to get some solid infield depth and a corner outfielder and at least 2 arms in the pen🙏🏼

[Real Mariners News @TheMarinersNews]

Javier Sanoja (Super-UT — MIA): Pre-Arb, ~$800K (5 Yrs Control) | 2.7 WAR pace, 8.4% K%, .295 BA, +9 OAA total (+6 at 3B, +3 in OF).

Mauricio Dubón (Super-UT — FA): Projected 2 Yrs, $8.0M–$9.0M AAV | 2.4 WAR projection, 11.8% K%, +4 OAA across IF/OF.

Geraldo Perdomo (SS — ARI): 3 Yrs Control, $8.0M AAV | 2.8 WAR, 13.9% K%, .370 OBP, +16 OAA at SS.