matthew

Outside DFW TX. 15yr veteran of PE + CRE. Partner at a multifamily GP.

Revitalizing an old farm outside day job.

[matthew @thematthew]

I just got @thematthew as my new handle

Guess I'm no longer an anonymous paintbrush

This is who runs this account:
> Texas born and bred
> Spent my career in structured credit, PE and CRE
> Opened up my own shop 5 years ago
> Love my family and love where I live
> More info to follow on my company, my sidequests, and everything else I love to share

[matthew @thematthew]

@JeremyGlantz You can create claude skills or write your own codebase for it, I've done both

Much more dependable than a 3rd party service

[matthew @thematthew]

@FreightAlley This is what your tweet just did to me

[matthew @thematthew]

Today is veteran’s day.

Thought of this memorable excerpt from Eisenhower’s WWII memoirs.

As true today as it was back then.

Thank you veterans, for showing up when it matters most.

[matthew @thematthew]

@loganjrankin Gosh I love this so hard, 10/10 this is real wealth to me

[matthew @thematthew]

Apply here to get on the waiting list and you will also be notified when the official PlatWorks suite goes live:

https://t.co/MhdSwIDifD

Those interesting in contributing and collaborating on the development of PlatWorks - please comment "PLAT" here to get first access off the list

[matthew @thematthew]

Update alert on the upcoming release:

Building the first version of my "plat" stack was easy.

Building the second version of my "plat" stack was a refactoring that went WAY astray.

So I spent some time getting deep in the weeds of AI development.

Anthropic nicely enough gave me startup credits to further pursue publishing of what I'm now calling PlatWorks.

I'm using those for nightly hillclimbing so it builds itself, and improves itself, within a set API budget with the best possible context and guidance I could put in front of it.

[matthew @thematthew]

Started some weekend tidying on this front:

[matthew @thematthew]

Software moats are mostly dead anyhow

My goal for PlatWorks is to be the tool of choice over every other paid subscription service that's tried to claim a special sauce or build a moat

PlatWorks will be absolutely free, powered by collaboration and the community who uses it

[matthew @thematthew]

@EllliotttB hot take = I'd rather miss my flight than spend time in an airport lounge

[matthew @thematthew]

@credealjunkie I'm (re)building my harness for the 3rd time, if I do it a 4th time I need someone to kill me

[matthew @thematthew]

@bobbyfijan Wish all parents could stick around longer for their grandkids. I lost a grandfather in junior high and it felt too soon. My prayers are with your family and your father.

[matthew @thematthew]

@credealjunkie Too true.

[matthew @thematthew]

10 good lessons I’ve learned about how to think in environments with incomplete information + significant uncertainty around key facts and key people involved.

Sharing because they’ve helped me in the past in grey areas.

These are applicable to investing with risk capital, or when dealing with counterparties or contractors, or interacting with employees and bosses both. Generally broadly applicable to most of life out in the real world actually.

1) No one receives information neutrally. You, me, everyone interpret reality through mental models. Understand your own and understand others’.

2) Established beliefs resist contradictory evidence, sometimes strongly and sometimes even detrimentally.

3) Expertise is necessary, but insufficient. Deep experience can lead veteran practitioners to be overly attached to familiar explanations.

4) More information does not necessarily produce better decisions. Additional evidence can increase confidence without increasing accuracy - particularly when it is redundant.

5) Disconfirming evidence is often more valuable than supporting evidence. Be mindful of evidence that distinguishes alternatives from your preferred explanation.

6) Good analytical minds consider multiple hypotheses simultaneously. Evaluating one at a time encourages confirmation bias.

7) Complex problems must be externalized. Write it out. Matrices, diagrams, decision trees, all are good tools that compensate for limited capacity of working memory.

8) Probability judgements are often distorted, but systematically so. Vivid memories, recent events, familiar narratives and emotional touch points can influence our estimates of likelihood.

9) We misremember the predictability of past events. Hindsight bias interferes with honest evaluation and learning.

10) Good analysis is a process, not an answer or an outcome. Sound reasoning should be transparent, challengeable, and revisable.

The inversion principle is strong in good analysts - they seek a process of discovering they are wrong, rather than a process that merely produces a persuasive explanation for why they are right.

The question to ask then is “What would have to be true for my current understanding of the situation to be fundamentally wrong - and how would I discover that before it was too late to act?”

[matthew @thematthew]

@Mr_Neutral_Man A reporter trying this in China or Russia would be disappeared MILES before even approaching talking range of their leadership due to thought crimes against the state