Mikey Metrics: sports betting research built on numbers, not hunches.
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Prices and lines move, so this is context, not picks. Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets tonight: Podziemski, Curry, Niang, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. #NBA#NBAProps#Warriors#Rockets
Warriors at Rockets, ESPN, 8:30 PM CT. Payton II and B. Williams are out, so Golden State's guards are thin. Rockets rank 9th of 30 in points allowed to guards. Helps Podziemski Over 15.5 pts (+115 Novig). Curry has the same matchup and averages 30.6 pts at a 28.7β¦ π§΅π
Warriors rank 8th of 30 in threes allowed to forwards. Context only: Lendeborg is their most-used defender at 13.6 shots a game, and opponents shoot 2.3 pts above normal against him. Helps Jabari Smith Jr. Over 2.5 3PT made (+147 Novig). He averages 2.7.
@kiwiparlays AJ Dybantsa Over 5.5 rebounds has cleared in 5 of his last 7, and the Pacers allow the 5th-most rebounds to forwards this season. Best price I see: -127 at Kalshi.
@TheDunkCentral@ChrisFedor James Harden Over 2.5 threes has cleared in 6 of his last 10, and the Knicks allow the 10th-most threes to guards this season. Best price I see: +127 at Kalshi.
@sloprules Michael Porter Over 7.5 rebounds has cleared in 6 of his last 10, and the Pelicans allow the most rebounds to forwards this season. Best price I see: +115 at Hard Rock Bet.
@realapp Brandin Podziemski Over 15.5 points has cleared in 6 of his last 9, and the Rockets allow the 9th-most points to guards this season. Best price I see: +120 at Novig.
@BagRBets Anthony Davis Over 22.5 points has cleared in 6 of his last 9, and the Pacers allow the 4th-most points to forwards this season. Best price I see: -112 at ProphetX.
@billhpicks Andrew Nembhard Over 23.5 points + assists has cleared in 6 of his last 9, and the Wizards allow the 4th-most points + assists to guards this season. Best price I see: -102 at Novig.
@abraprops Kyshawn George Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists has cleared in 6 of his last 10, and the Pacers allow the 4th-most points + rebounds + assists to forwards this season. Best price I see: -102 at FanDuel.
@QuentinLocks Julius Randle Over 25.5 points + assists has cleared in 6 of his last 10, and the Pelicans allow the 7th-most points + assists to forwards this season. Best price I see: -111 at DraftKings.