Kyle Chase | Carolina Multifamily

Carolina Multifamily & Land Broker | Executive Vice President at @colliers | $2+ billion in transactions |

[Kyle Chase | Carolina Multifamily @TheMultiChase]

Well said

[Robbie Hendricks @robbiehendricks]

If you're a longtime multifamily owner on a 3-5 year exit timeline, you're not in a good position.

You probably waited to sell in the hopes that rates would come back down. That Q4 2021 was coming back. They are not. It is not.

If rates run or simply tick up over the next 2-3 years, there is a long way down for your values from here.

"But then rates will come down!"

It doesn't matter. Rates come down when the economy craters and unemployment skyrockets.

No one will be lending, liquidity will get nuked, and your buyer pool will dry up.

You'll be navigating delinquency and terrified tenants when you should have sailed off into the sunset already.

You think rents will run again, but they can't run if incomes don't run too...which they won't. Not with unemployment at 8%+.

If you're holding out hope that a better exit is coming in 12-18 months, I think you're going to be extremely disappointed.

But there is a bright side: you probably have tons of equity. Nice.

These deals you've owned for 10-20-30 years are worth a godforsaken fortune compared to your basis.

And as long as you didn't lever them to the gills to pull cash out, you are way in the money.

But don't get cute sitting on your deal with the expectation that a pandemic free-for-all is coming to pump your bags again.

Just my two cents, but IMO you'd be better off exiting now before things get worse than praying for 2022 highs to come back on your preferred timeline.

Either get comfortable with a new 10 year hold plan, or get moving on your exit.

[Jay Parsons @jayparsons]

The WSJ tackles the apartment debt topic... While it's taken longer than expected for distress to emerge, more is emerging, and it's particularly concentrated in certain types of assets -- value-add deals bought at the cycle's peak.

[Kyle Chase | Carolina Multifamily @TheMultiChase]

@20YearsAgoSport I was at that game. So glad they didn’t give up football.

[Jay Parsons @jayparsons]

Up and to the right. That's what we are now seeing for apartment rents in previously high-supplied markets like Boise (remember when it was branded oversupplied and left for dead??), Wilmington, Charleston, Myrtle Beach and even Austin.

Could these be bellwethers for other high-supplied markets in Sun Belt and Mountains as supply plunges? We'll see.

Others to watch: Salt Lake City, Tucson, Tampa, SW Florida, Jacksonville, and Phoenix's east side (Scottsdale etc), as well as many Sun Belt downtowns, where supply dropping off faster than suburbs.

Fwiw, I don't think the +8% in Boise is something we'll see in most other spots. Some markets are just more volatile, and volatility swings both ways. But could plausibly see more Sun Belt/Mountain markets in mid single-digits next year.

[Kyle Chase | Carolina Multifamily @TheMultiChase]

My new disclaimer when underwriting
#multifamily #retwit #cre

[Sean Sweeney @seandsweeney]

If you work in real estate this graph should stop you in your tracks.

Look closely.

Add in closed borders (which will likely remain that way in 2028 regardless of who is in the White House) and all of a sudden we have a problem.

This time is different might actually be true.

[Keith Wasserman @Keith_Wasserman]

Bloodbath in multifamily rents and property values in a lot of markets that were oversupplied. Transaction volumes are anemic. We’ve turned the corner though in most markets operationally. Larger newer vintage buildings cap rates actually compressing. Flight to quality. These next few years are when money is made buying into distress and depressed rent rolls.

[Mr. Indiana @MrInd1ana]

The quest for a repeat starts tomorrow.

First and last plays of the 2025 IU football season.

[Indiana Football @IndianaFootball]

It's a new dawn.

[Josh Pate @JoshPateCFB]

Being featured in the @IndianaFootball hype video after what we went through last season is a huge step in my healing journey

[Kyle Chase | Carolina Multifamily @TheMultiChase]

@MercedesAMGF1 Unfollowing this team. A team that was all about competition swapped. At least let George and Kimi fight for it. Really feel bad for George.

[Pat McAfee @PatMcAfeeShow]

🗣🗣HOO HOO HOO HOOSIERS

CONGRATULATIONS @__1problem 👏 #PMSLive

[Joe Stampone @Joe_Stampone]

Nearly all issues in the multifamily sector are driven by leverage and hold period. Multifamily is best suited for moderate fixed-rate leverage and long-term holds

Research of the multifamily sector from the latest Linneman letter:

- Over the last 48 years (since 4Q 1977), an unlevered multifamily portfolio held for 7 or 10 years never lost money — across 165 seven-year and 153 ten-year periods.

- On a 3-year hold, the sector was negative in only 14 of 181 periods (7.7%).

- It delivered the second-highest average returns, the lowest volatility, and the fewest negative periods.

- It posted the highest Sharpe ratios — the best risk-adjusted returns of any sector.

[Cassandra Hartford @SpaceCoastCRE]

People ask me all of the to mentor them in commercial real estate.

The answer is always no, and here's why;

https://t.co/yNWW5QAvod

[Kyle Chase | Carolina Multifamily @TheMultiChase]

@realEstateTrent $500k - $1M (25-50bps)

[Pat McAfee @PatMcAfeeShow]

I loved Bob.

He was a great friend and mentor to me.. I will miss him.

I was insanely lucky that he assisted me in all aspects of life… he always believed in me. He always helped me.. and he always made the room he was in better.

YOU DONE GOOD brother… thank you for it all.

[Hoosier Review @Hoosier_Review]

Bryant Haines AFCA interview has the Indiana Victory Flag blowing in the background #iufb

On discussing with Cignetti about taking the Indiana job:

"I know the fanbase, if you can wake them up, if you can get them out of that coma they've been in, that place will take off"

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

49% of U.S. residents are struggling to pay rent or mortgages, per Redfin

[Kyle Chase | Carolina Multifamily @TheMultiChase]

@Illinifan05 @kenright21 Hint: look at the feet/leg

[Kyle Chase | Carolina Multifamily @TheMultiChase]

@AssemblyCall Glad I’m not the only one who does this.