Naveen Kumar

Building @pier20ai. Self taught quant trader. I publish our studies about all the ways you can lose money in the markets, especially with AI 😅

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

Many strategies look solid until the regime actually changes.

A common pattern is strong performance in one environment followed by sharp degradation when volatility, correlation, or trend behavior shifts.

The original idea is often still valid. The problem is usually that the strategy has no built-in way to recognize when its core assumptions stop working.

This is why simple mechanical regime awareness or adaptive overlays tend to separate strategies that survive multiple cycles from those that work well for a while and then break.

(whipped up a few charts to show this on QQQ)

How are your strategies performing when volatility or correlation regimes shift? Are regime shifts breaking more strategies for you than expected?

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

If you didn't know about rebal:

ETF rebalancing flows have grown more noticeable in recent years. Especially in names with heavy ETF ownership.

Larger ETF assets and more concentrated ownership have made these mechanical flows bigger. What used to be relatively small adjustments can now create short-term pressure. This pressure sometimes overrides the signal a strategy is trying to capture.

It shows clearly in the few days around major rebalance dates. Momentum strategies can get whipsawed. Factor exposures can drift more than expected. In some cases the rebalancing volume simply swamps the underlying move.

Seeing this in both momentum and factor books. The effect is often strongest in the most liquid, high-ETF-ownership names.

Worth checking in your own book: how net exposure in high-ETF-ownership names behaves in the 3–5 days before and after rebalances.

In some cases the mechanical flow temporarily dominates the edge you’re trying to harvest.

(Whipped up a quick chart to show what that typically looks like)

Curious, anyone here running systematic strategies, and stress-tested against rebalance calendars? Or are you assuming these effects mostly wash out over longer periods?

[Nishant Kumar @nishantkumar07]

EXCLUSIVE: Two Millennium trading pods run by Glen Scheinberg and Pratik Madhvani made about $3.7 billion in total last month or more than half of the about $6.6 billion profit generated by Millennium before fees in June https://t.co/7qRlA81afz

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

@nasscomstartups in Indiranagar had similar ideas. They got started with having 3d printers, shared machines, labs, and a few others if my memory serves me right.

Another approach: have so many factories that they are all under utilised, that additional capacity becomes the launchpad for the new generation

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

@nasscomstartups in Indiranagar had similar ideas. They got started with having 3d printers, shared machines, labs, and a few others if my memory serves me right.

Another approach: have so many factories that they are all under utilised, that additional capacity becomes the launchpad for the new generation

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

gatekeeping this place in koramangala

[Phalgun @phalgooon]

gatekeeping this place in koramangala

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

@benln Would love in! Most productive day of the week, would be nice to talk about those projects :)

[Adithya Venkatesan @adadithya]

Added few more stories @AlterMagIndia wants to commission. Please do tag writers!

The IMAI vs the RBI in particular is a fantastic story waiting to be told

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

@phalgooon @JatinHariani Yeah, but I just got the ability to add additional WhatsApp accounts on my iOS WhatsApp. I think this existed in the android version for years 🥲

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

@shreyansalecha Takes my credit card bills, organises it by category, month by month expense trends, and a report to review + plan the year for investments

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

Monday is halfway through and the @Zai_org @jietang @ZixuanLi_ team is shipping updates already to GLM Zcode!

What a time to be alive 🚀🚀🚀

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

@ajit_bhaskar 100%

[Douglas Yao @DouglasYaoDY]

This vial contains a new drug called PAC-832, which I recently invented to treat Alzheimer’s disease. It is the world’s first selective GalR1 antagonist.

I designed and synthesized PAC-832 in a chemistry lab I built in my garage. (1/16)

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

@ajit_bhaskar @paarugsethi Biceps are disappearing 🥲 but I’ve been good. How have you been?

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

I opened the notes app, scrolled all the way to the bottom (oldest note in this app is 8 years old), and started reading. It’s such an eye opener.

I’ve progressed in every imaginable axis. I’m happy to see how the things I was working on years and years ago are things I still practice and have paid off repeatedly!

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

Is it me or are people working more hours this summer in the UK? Did a quick check, all data points to a "summer slump" in productivity, and yet I see people in my workspace after 5PM. Someone explain?

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

@phalgooon @paarugsethi @Pranavarchitect howdu but nange gothilla😅 kindly do the honours @phalgooon? I can only speak about ynk / vpura / malleshwaram / jp / jayanagar

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

Precisely. I would say, established = people who've excelled in their fields.

We need hacker houses for e-sports, hacker houses for video editing and animation, hacker houses for circuit building, for 3d printing, for chemistry, for biohacking, for model fine-tuning, for everything!

Those who excel at bringing people together can build a blueprint, identify established players in different fields, and setup these monasteries.

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

Founders aren't getting 25% of their own company. They are being paid 25% to be around some of the great minds that modern India has, and that's a massive paycheck! like @nikhilkamathcio and others.

Finally, we have a wealthy and influential person trying to build a patronage. This, I hope, brings together many of the nations smart, high agency, and talented people together to build a great many things.

[Jasveer Singh @jasveer10]

Last year, I tweeted about Nikhil Foundry taking 75% and leaving 25% for founders. @RonnieScrewvala argument is fair if there is no plan to raise institutional capital.

Most prominent VCs won’t step in with a cap table where the earlier backer already owns 75%

A VC wants to back the founder who’s putting in the blood and sweat every day. That founder needs enough skin in the game to stay fully incentivized for the next 7-10 years.

[Naveen Kumar @thenaveeneffect]

@paarugsethi @ajit_bhaskar You are one step ahead of me, good sir!