Have You Been Trading Options Without Realizing It? Inside the Prediction Market Boom
Kalshi and Polymarket cleared roughly $47 billion of notional in July and have not given the pace back in August.
Kalshi trades at $668.29 while Polymarket trades at $140.11 in the pre-IPO market. (Source: Hiive)
Robinhood ($HOOD ) turned its own exchange into an earnings beat on July 29 and is now up 138% on the year.
Cboe ($CBOE ), the actual home of listed options, is selling a vertical spread in a prediction-market costume.
The sportsbooks funding all of it, $DKNG and $FLUT , sit at 2026 lows.
Here is why prediction markets are really options wearing a disguise, and what the tape says about who is winning.
https://t.co/DFDNbkllqj
$TJX earnings preview: Options Price a ±4.6% Move
Adjusted EPS:
Street Expectation: $1.18
Whisper: +1.31% (Zacks ESP)
Revenue:
Street Expectation: $15.14B
Whisper: in line
$NVDA Partners With Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to Establish AI Compute Infrastructure Financing Platforms to Mobilize Over $500 Billion of Third-Party Capital.
As $SCHW (Charles Schwab) reaches its 52 wk high with a golden cross on Aug 4, its executives sold $90M in company shares in the past two weeks.
SCHW Co-Chairman Walter W. Bettinger Sold $44.65M while Charles R. Schwab sold ~$35M in shares.
Additionally, Mr. Saccaro will receive a one-time make-whole award of $6,250,000 in restricted stock units and a one-time make-whole cash award of $1,250,000. Wetteny Joseph transitioned from CFO to Special Advisor to the CEO, effective August 16, 2026, until February 28, 2027. $ZTS
Datadog, Inc. ($DDOG ) stated its largest customer reduced usage beginning in Q3 2026, which may negatively impact revenue and dollar-based net retention, sending the stock in a downward spiral.