Brian Payne

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

Long TLT or buy a house

[Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @MikeFritzell]

If I were a US-focused investor, I’d try to find ways to bet a recovery here. Source: Grant’s

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

Housing is NOT in a bubble. Look at the end of this chart. Does that look like the GFC to you?

Prices have been falling in real terms. Wages are outrunning them.

NO ONE is calling this over the coming months and years: Mortgage rates fall to high-5s/low-6s (not insane, just Q1 2026 levels). Supply stays tight outside FL/TX. Prices turn back up.

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

At +5% carry and everybody on one side of the outlook: long some TLT here 😌

[Marko Papic @Geo_papic]

Everybody... but I mean EVERYBODY (other than ONE buddy)... thinks that the Treasury will not reign in the yields.

Probably time to go long bonds.

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

And hence the best opportunity it’s been in BDCs since Covid

[Julian Klymochko @JulianKlymochko]

According to Blue Owl, the market's pricing of their BDC implies a scenario in which 40% of the portfolio defaults and recoveries are just 50 cents on the dollar.

For reference, in 2008–2010, cumulative realized credit losses were 10.2% in private credit.

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

Who doesn't hate Private Markets😁 Not @pensionsnews

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

One hedge to the AI trade: stocks

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

The number of S&P500 stocks that now have negative beta to the market is at the highest level since 2000 / 2001:

“The list of “Negative Beta” stocks, names whose day in and day out correlation to the S&P 500 is inverse, has surged to 121 names, far surpassing the only other significant spike, in 2000-01 after the dot com bubble had burst.” -Evercore

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

We are now in inning 4 of rising franchise valuations. These numbers are only going to keep growing.

I just wonder how the bubble eventually pops 🤔 Is it we just stop watching sports? I don’t even want to envision.

Or is it new league supply is actually successful? Might want to hedge NFL with UFL.

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

*JOSH KUSHNER, BOB IGER TO BUY LA LAKERS FOR OVER $12B: ESPN

Up 20% since last year and purchased for $5bn in 2021. That's a ~19% CAGR vs. ~16% for the S&P over the same period

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

And it’ll keep on tightening 🔩

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

The direct lending premium over BSL (146bps) is at narrowest since 2019.

This is the premium that LPs get for illiquidity, no ratings, and quarterly marks (big one)

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

"Sportico values the franchise [Yankees] at more than $9 billion"

The inefficiencies in Private Markets will always be there. Seattle Seahawks just sold for $9.6 billion.

NO WAY the Seattle Seahawks are worth the same as the New York Yankees.

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

Nobody's talking about BDCs right now. They should be. BDCs are quietly ripping with several up double digits. And that's before the double-digit dividends stack on top.
@bcaresearch

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

😂

[DEBT SERIOUS @debt_serious]

So, it appears that search interest in Private Credit (blue line) and Private Debt (red line) is coming down rapidly. Perhaps people have finally developed a case of PC fatigue.

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

Private Credit just set a new quarterly fundraising record! And by a wide margin: 13% above the prior high in Q4 2020.

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

Credit conditions just hit their loosest level in more than 4 years.

Own more equity, less credit...and that goes for Private Markets

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

Sorry folks, Private Credit’s doomsday is not today...but the pressure is building fast

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

Never checked the income statement. Never checked the balance sheet. Never checked the P/E. All I knew before buying #MSFT:

1. Stock was down over 30%
2. I use Microsoft every morning of my life

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

#REITs are quietly set up for a multi-year run of outperformance. Already double-digit gains this year, and that's before the dividend. Real opportunities, not hate mongering. Follow for more, or don't, if you prefer the noise across X

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

@LeylaKuni Presentation of data is great but I wouldn’t rely on any of these (McKinsey & MSCI) for what you’re showing

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

@DefinitelyJason @bcaresearch Reach out to the team on the BCA website for a copy of the report

[Brian Payne @thepaynetrade]

@DefinitelyJason @bcaresearch It’s in there! We like REITs :)