Can't wait for preseason NFL
We're going to start rolling out our NFL betting strategies to everyone on our newsletter (free obviously) so we can all find one that works for us!
So many being tested and proving to be fun! 😀
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We're running data across 10,000 data points to find the best strategies to bet on.
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Oh did I mention we're adding CFB?
We graded 2,398 college football games. Three full seasons. Real closing lines, real final scores.Almost every "sharp angle" you've heard of is a coin flip.Two bet types survived. Both profitable in 2023, 2024, AND 2025. 🧵
First, the graveyard. Angles we tested that are pure coin flips:• Home underdogs • Fading big favorites • Conference-game unders • "Situational" spread spotsEvery spread angle we ran died in the data. Anyone selling you one is selling you a coin flip.
Survivor #1: The High-Total Under.
The rule fits in one line: closing total 57 or higher → take the under.Record since 2023: 329-255-8. That's 56.3%.Break-even at standard -110 pricing is 52.4%.
And it wasn't one lucky year:2023: 119-95 (55.6%) 2024: 109-85 (56.2%) 2025: 101-75 (57.4%)Profitable all three seasons. It actually got BETTER each year.
Survivor #2 is stronger — but it only exists three weeks a year.
Weeks 0-2, closing total 55+ → under.Record since 2023: 89-60-2. That's 59.7%.August offenses are rusty. The books price them like it's November.
The fine print, because honesty is the product:• FBS-vs-FBS games only — no FCS bodybag games padding the record • Graded against consensus CLOSING lines, not cherry-picked openers • Pushes excluded from hit rates • A 59.7% rule still loses 4 of every 10 bets
The early-season edge is also shrinking — and we'll show you that too:2
2023: 63.2% 2024: 58.7% 2025: 56.5%
Still profitable every year. But if it ever stops working, you'll hear it from us first. That's the deal.
Both strategies, full records, and every qualifying pick for week 0 are free on the site. No email wall, no "DM for plays."First picks of 2026: two unders on Aug 29. Grades posted after, win or lose.
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Pop quiz: who led the NFL in receiving yards in 2025?
Not Chase. Not Puka.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 1,793 yards. If your draft board is running on 2025 reputation, you're drafting last year's league.
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5 players your league will overdraft this year.
One of them averaged 22.3 points a game and I'm still telling you to pass at his price.
The data on all 5:
Davante Adams
38% of his fantasy points came from touchdowns.
789 receiving yards in 14 games. That's 56 a game — a WR3 floor propped up by 14 scores.
TD rates like that don't repeat. Especially not at 33.
Josh Jacobs
Two red flags at once.
Snap share: 68% first half → 49% second half. Green Bay took the ball out of his hands.
And 35% of his points came from 14 TDs.
Shrinking role + unsustainable TD rate. The classic double fade.
Michael Pittman
Scariest split in our data.
16.2 points a game through week 9. Then 7.6 the rest of the way.
His snap share went UP (84% → 87%). He was on the field. They stopped feeding him.
Production halves with the role intact? That's not bad luck. That's the offense moving on.
Keenan Allen
14.0 → 7.1 points a game, first half to second.
On a 55% snap share all year. A half-time player losing his share of the passing game, another year older.
The name gets drafted rounds ahead of the role.
Jonathan Taylor. Yes, really.
1,924 yards. 22.3 a game. Awesome season.
But 20 touchdowns is an extreme outlier. Nobody repeats that. His own season showed the fade: 24.9 PPG first half → 18.9 second.
Score a still-excellent 12-14 TDs and he loses ~3 points a game off the top.
At the #1 pick, you're paying for the career year. Not the repeat.
Bonus: Emeka Egbuka went 15.4 → 8.1 after week 9 once defenses caught up to the rookie.
Watch where his price settles.
The pattern in all of this: touchdowns lie, snap counts don't. Draft the role, not the name.
My guys over at @ThePlaybookIQ are running a giveaway on their website to promote their newsletter
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