"This chart doesn’t lie: $CSPR would rank #19 in
on-chain revenue, higher than SEI, XTZ, DOT and SUI, yet its FDV is a fraction of theirs.
Enterprise-grade tech focused on tokenization and agentic commerce is already driving real adoption.
This is the most undervalued L1 in the market. Massive re-rating incoming 🚀"
Dear CT,
I have a sincere question to all you quants, chart analyzers, TA/PA folks and general crypto market experts. I decidedly am not one of any of these categories. I'm a technologist/product guy/builder/operator. I do not proclaim to understand what drives valuations and price action in what to me seems to be a highly irrational marketplace. So I'm looking at you, among others: @Kevin_Cage_, @CryptoCharged, @NCashOfficial, @CryptoHeroesDE - help me out here:
Much focus appears to be placed on "onchain revenue" of Layer 1 blockchains, as a metric to derive blockchains' valuation from. "Onchain revenue" defined as the sum of transaction fees collected over a period of time. On the surface, this makes some sense to me, as it is probably the best proxy for basic supply/demand economics. Consequently, dashboards like @chainspect_app present is as the primary metric for "Blockchain Financials", like here: https://t.co/8zTgc9vwcD
So this is where things get very interesting, and totally puzzling to me. casper-network:native is not currently tracked by Chainspect, however if it were, it would be the 19th highest revenue generating Layer 1 blockchain on the list, just above $SEI, $XTZ, $DOT, sui:native and just below $ALGO. Now as you well know, casper-network:native's FDV is significantly lower than that of all of these peers, even though Casper's onchain revenue is higher. In fact, SUI, with just $22 in daily revenue, is valued at over $11B, while DOT, with $26 in revenue, is valued $2.6B.
Now to an outside economist, valuing a project/company that does $22/day ($8K per year) at $11B is obviously the definition of an irrational market. So while many may focus on this "onchain revenue" metric, it appears "the market" does not, at least not rationally or uniformly?
Take Casper as an example - as a protocol/technology it's objectively superior to most on this list, and it's leading the charge in two of the most consequential technological shifts this decade: tokenization and agentic commerce. So those are additional objective metrics that do not appear to drive valuations in the market (are all the projects on this list even still actively maintained?).
So that leaves what? Hype? Manipulation? FOMO? Paid influencers? Crypto bro culture? Is that what our industry comes down to? Or is there a more fundamental approach hiding beneath it all?
In addition to learning from some of your expertise, I'm hoping to engage in an objective, dare I say even scientific discussion with those of you who have insights to share. Not looking to bash any projects/people/parties. If that's what you're looking for, please go elsewhere.
Thank you
@Casper_Network Strong point @Casper_Network. Machine payments need exactly those cheap, final and predictable rails. The AI Toolkit with x402 already covers that.
YiFi’s write-up covers the Casper Manifest angle well, EVM, RWAs, and the AI Toolkit with x402 already live.
Looks like steady progress on the agent and regulated side, but liquidity and delivery still matter.
Follow-up on peaq-2:native
Ran off the $0.012 low, tagged $0.0496. That is 300%. Now a pullback, not a break.
Price is back at $0.039, sitting on the daily 20. The 0.236 at $0.038 is just under it. Volume on this dip is light versus the September impulse.
The $0.032 gate is intact. That is the 0.382 and the 50 EMA. A dip into $0.038–$0.032 is allowed. A daily close under $0.032 puts the break back in doubt.
Reading the dip as a wave 2 inside wave 3.
First buy zone $0.038, second one at $0.032.
If $0.032 holds, first target is a reclaim of
$0.048–$0.050. After that the 0.382 at $0.059, then the 0.5 at $0.096.
NFA. Do your own research. Size it properly.
Two charts on casper-network:native.
Daily is soft, weekly is the tell.
Daily lost the 0.382 at $0.00246. Both EMAs are pinched at $0.00261, price is under them.
Volume on this pullback is light versus the August impulse and the July washout.
No panic. No real bid either.
Weekly opened on the 20 EMA near $0.00259 and is already under it. 50 EMA is still way up at $0.00424, same area as the 0.382 of the bigger decline.
Reading this as a wave 2. First buy zone $0.00222, cleaner one $0.00201.
Main risk is losing $0.00174. That puts the July low back in play. Need $0.00261 back before it looks constructive.
NFA. Do your own research. Size it properly.
New for Casper Forward: API credits from @Chain_GPT!
Teams in the programme get access to ChainGPT's AI tools while they take their prototype to production.
Thanks to ChainGPT for backing builders again after the Buildathon.
https://t.co/V3of0Xa569
Been watching the casper-network:native Q3 scorecard.
They went 7 for 7 on the list they set in July.
Kraken spot and perps live for US holders, EVM DevNet already running Uniswap and Morpho, AstralBeam bridging to Ethereum, Base, Polygon and Robinhood Chain with the ERC-3643 compliance data still attached.
x402 is in the official Coinbase SDK.
CSPR up 42% on the quarter while they shipped. Still looks constructive to me on the regulated RWA and agent side.
@skipolata Quiet tape with liquidity still coming in is usually the part people misread.
I’m leaning the same way. Main risk is this drags on and everyone front-runs a move that isn’t there yet.
Patience is the key here?
ethereum:0xaea46a60368a7bd060eec7df8cba43b7ef41ad85 weekly.
Price ran off the $0.113 low, reclaimed the 20 EMA at $0.1887 and pushed into the downtrend line.
This week tagged $0.2492 and is sitting at $0.2371, down 4%.
That poke did not reach the weekly 50 at $0.2747. Still the ceiling. $0.2889 sits just above it.
What did hold: the 20 EMA. Price is well above it. RSI is 56. Stoch is maxed. That is why this red week looks like a reset, not a break.
$0.210–$0.189 is the gate. This week’s low and the 20 EMA. A dip into that zone is allowed. A weekly close under $0.189 puts the reclaim in doubt.
If $0.210 holds, first job is $0.275–$0.289. After that the 0.382 at $0.419, then the 0.5 at $0.627.
Volume is 384M. Fine for a reset. I’d like to see more if $0.275 actually gets taken.
Still looks constructive to me while the 20 EMA holds.
NFA. Do your own research. Size it properly
Been watching the velo:native weekly push straight into the 50 EMA at $0.005615 after months of basing around $0.0029–$0.0036.
Price sitting right on it. Long downtrend line from 2024 top also being challenged. 20 EMA curling up from below at $0.004236 – structure from the lows remains intact.
Volume improved to 119M but needs stronger expansion for a clean accept above the 50 EMA.
RSI is 60. Stoch is maxed, so a dip is a reset, not a break. $0.0042–$0.0046 is the gate. That is the 20 EMA. A dip into that zone is allowed.
A weekly close under it questions the breakout.
First target reclaim of the 0.382 fib at $0.00776, then 0.5 at $0.010556. Weekly 50 acceptance opens the door higher.
NFA. Do your own research. Size properly.
@Casper_Network is working with some of our peers in the US DeFi industry on shaping policy around vaults.
As the pieces are slowly but surely falling into place - tokenized securities and stock tokens (incl those beaming from @base and @RobinhoodCrypto to Casper via @AstralBeam_io), stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (with 10%+ APY on $CSPR) - making sure that vaults that leverage these primitives can do so in a regulatory compliant way in the United States, is of paramount importance. We look forward on working closely with our friends on this list to make this happen!
Quietly taking the right seats.
Vaults workstream. Washington.
Direct engagement with the SEC and industry peers.
casper-network:native isn’t only shipping rails for regulated assets and agentic commerce -- it’s helping make sure the rules reflect how that tech actually works.
That’s the game. 🟣 #CasperFam
Casper is proud to join @BlockchainAssn's Vaults Workstream.
Vaults are an evolving part of onchain finance, and clear rules should reflect how the technology actually works.
We look forward to engaging with the SEC and industry peers in the U.S.
"Casper stepping up with the big leagues on vaults policy -- real infrastructure building happening".
casper-network:native to the forefront of compliant onchain innovation.
Well done to @BlockchainAssn for getting the Vaults Workstream off the ground.
It puts dozens of member organisations in front of the SEC to explain how vaults work, and to make sure the rules that follow match the technology.