Warren

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@UAPWixy Really dumb theory

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@usuallyYJLee Surprised if China restarts this one. They’re too green and woke now to mine a mountain of waste for a half cup of lithium.
Battery makers should be banned from using it.

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@TwinTurboCe1ica Girls*

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@globallithium Great read J

[Dwayne Sparkes @sparkes_dwayne]

Just finished reading CATL's H126 Report. Here are my quick thoughts as i sip my morning coffee!

It's extremely bullish for lithium and the numbers within the report are quite mind blowing.

What really sticks out for me is the ~95% factory utilisation with production of 498 GWh. Their production capacity is essentially full. This is CATL basically running production as hard as they can. This means that the consumption of LCE is essentially capped until more battery capacity is built. Factory capacity is the limiting factor for CATL's LCE consumption.

They've got 764 GWh of capacity currently within the construction pipeline. To give you some context this is roughly 650kt of LCE or 5.4Mt of SC6.

Where is 650kt of LCE going to come from? Mines take 4-8 years typically to come online in the western world, CATL can throw up battery capacity in 1-2 years or less. So it's clear that supply of lithium will be the constraint here. And it's important to note this is just CATL. Throw in BYD, LG, etc..

And its not like this 764GWh of capacity will sit idle. Global shipments reached 486 GWh of battery cells during H1 2026 which is up 93%. What else is growing at this speed?

You take this insane growth of one company, combined with the recent governance issues in Zimbabwe, lack of infrastructure in Nigeria and instability in the likes of Mali and the DRC, western spodumene producers and South American brines look very good here.

Cheers for reading!

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@sparkes_dwayne Well said

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@tompanos Does this mean real estate agents need to work for a living ?

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@maximumpain333 Come on…. This is dumb.

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@BowesChay Cheap shit

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@globallithium @sparkes_dwayne You’re welcome Peakey

[Dwayne Sparkes @sparkes_dwayne]

Just finished reading Lithium Confidential by @globallithium

In my view, nobody can match Joe's knowledge and decades of experience in the lithium industry.

Beyond the insights into the history of the lithium market and industry, I've gleaned a lot from the personal stories and life lessons throughout.

It's easy to comment on today's lithium market, but the perspective gained from decades spent working in the industry and navigating multiple market cycles simply can't be taught.

Whether you're interested in lithium or not, there are valuable lessons to be learned from Joe's decades of experience.

Highly recommend the read. Link below:

https://t.co/bOYWGz2F6m

[Dwayne Sparkes @sparkes_dwayne]

Some random thoughts on the lithium market as i sip my morning coffee!

The problem is that at the moment, there are only high quality assets that are operating. There's not a healthy spread of producers across the cost curve. There are no mid to low cost producers that can suddenly be turned on. And that's largely due to the recent rapid recovery in the lithium price and only the ones that survived the last down cycle staying online.

Even the expansions, P2000 from PLS for example, which has existing infrastructure and is lower risk, is going to take several years to come online.

The issue with this is, once the market swings into a deficit (like we are in now), due to the lack of quality assets that are able to come online, the tonnes come from marginal, high cost, price sensitive projects.

This creates major instability and is very different to how most mature commodity markets behave (copper, Iron etc.). When the price rises, the extreme marginal tonnes rush in, when it softens slightly these tonnes exit. So we are just continually adding and removing unstable high cost tonnes.

There are four main restarts/starts that are set to take place this year. DVP's pioneer dome, MIN's Bald Hill, Ngungaju and Core lithium's Finniss project. They could do a combined total of ~34kt this year.

Pioneer Dome for example is going to be a DSO project, which means they aren't processing the ore themselves, they are selling ore ~1.2% Li2O grade.

Just in June this year, they announced the FID for the start. The price assumption they've used is US$26,000/t China. Now the problem with this is, due to the recent cyclical price dip, the futures is now at US$22,000/t.

If the lithium price keeps falling, it's possible that a large majority of these restarts (~34kt of LCE) won't go ahead.

So if you take out 34kt of LCE, you're just getting higher lithium prices and repeating the same cycle.

The faster the market grows, those marginal tonnes become an increasingly smaller proportion of total demand, making each cycle harder to balance than the last. Therefore, the price needs to go higher and stay there to incentivise new low cost projects to come online (excluding some low risk expansions from existing mines). If it doesn't, then prices could boom back to 2022 levels due to the combination of the pool of readily available high cost projects becoming increasingly scarce and the lag to build new mines.

Also the fear of Jianxiawo being turned on is totally nonsensical. It's just an excuse to help drive the lithium price down. Why do we care so much about Jianxiawo coming back online (which would do about ~25kt this year), but nobody batted an eye lid when Bald Hill, Finniss, Pioneer dome and Ngungaju said they'd come online this year (which is higher at ~34kt this year).

Also, as I've said many times before, even if it does come back online, due to the rapid growth of the market, it won't have the same effect as it did last time it was operating. That lever has been pulled.

Cheers for reading!☕️

[Warren @thereal_ws]

I am back at 1 cent

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@RealChubWitham
Seven.

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@TwinTurboCe1ica Big whack

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@TwinTurboCe1ica Well said mungo

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@PMET_Resources Wow!

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@kndro13 You in 40 years

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@drauwsy

[Warren @thereal_ws]

@Footballfights Sweet shots