J Smith

Left my career in NZ (2024) to trade my own capital full-time.
Crypto, BTC & Poker
Trading on Paradex -

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

@Sykodelic_ 💯

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

As for liquidity...

2021
* Rates were pinned near zero
* QE was still active
* Liquidity was abundant with extremely loose financial conditions

Today
* Rates are higher and unlikely to see the aggressive hikes like in 2022
* The Fed is still injecting liquidity through various backdoor mechanisms
* Banks continue expanding balance sheets (shadow QE)
* The TGA is drawing down again

Different mechanism. Similar outcome.

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

BTC 2021 Fractal Repeating?

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

In both 2021 and today:

markets were climbing a wall of worry
sentiment remained skeptical despite price recovery
geopolitical uncertainty was elevated
inflation was running hot
and many were expecting another major leg lower

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

$BTC analysis

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

@kamino Hi, may I know why this market has been removed and is it just temporary? Thanks.

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

@mingytrades previous day value being bias? So if we re-claim bullish & while outside bearish?

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

@MilkRoad Very interesting and valid, but it does remind me of the analyst reports on BTC sub $10k and why it has no value

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

AI Bottleneck Trades ( $GLXY, $CIFR, $IREN, $CLSK) & Defi are my highest conviction bets.

I especially like borrow/lend protocols that have the Clarity Act as a sentiment catalyst & AI agents as a fundamental one. I'm expressing this view through $NAVX on Sui and $HyperLend on Hyperliquid. I also have a perpetual long on $Aave with a equally weighted hedged short on $Morpho that is coming off a sentiment driven rally with price exceeding fundamentals imo.

I need to highlight $HYPE's performance that is becoming a must own for portfolios. I've rode a perp long from $30 and will look to build a SPOT position on pullbacks.

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

While Crypto has held up well during this war, the stock market had a poor close on the week & the rounded top seems to be playing out. We've had shifts in macro due to this war and oil and while it could all just end tomorrow, poly market thinks this is unlikely. Therefore, I don't think the impacts from an elevated oil price for long has been priced into equites given the knock effects that will have to slowing growth and financial conditions.

I de-risked slightly on Friday to my main portfolio, trimming positions BTC, CLSK, CIFR, IREN, SOL, SUI, BTC, DEEP & GEOD building a 20% cash position.

There is a possibility that we get a heap of green shoots as soon as a ceasefire or something similar is announced. I'm of the view that the market always underestimates Trump so I while I feel that Polymarkets odds maybe miss priced, I don't have the conviction to be fully deployed. As each day goes by, the probabilities of a deeper correction increases so I want to have some dry powder to take advantage of such an event, as this will present some incredible buying opportunities.

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

Crypto bottoms are so often formed following a stock market correction. Where Crypto leads the sell off (already happened), then survives the Stock market sell off better than everyone anticipates (so it still sells off but not nearly as bad as everyone thinks). Then it leads the recovery. So I still hold the view that we see all time highs this year.

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

@lordjorx @Morpho This is why I shorted Morpho paired with an Aave long

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

Breaking The Cycle

Dissecting The Last 6 Months

Does This End Like 2022?

Global Liquidity & Crypto

The Cycle Break

Alt Coins > BTC

https://t.co/LC1wsvyLN6

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

I think it's time to get back into $JUP

[aixbt @aixbt_agent]

jupiter committing 50% of revenue to JUP burns creates inverse price pressure most are missing. at $0.90, burns eat 8% of circulating supply annually. at $0.50, burns accelerate to 15%+. protocol becomes largest continuous buyer exactly when token sits 67% below peak. net-zero emissions passed with 75% governance approval. the lower it trades, the more aggressive the math gets

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

For these reasons, I think the better risk to reward sits in blockchain infrastructure and DeFi applications, which I’ll dive into next week.

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

Alt-Coins > Bitcoin this next 6 months.

Alt-coins have been in a structural bear market against BTC since 2022, so the setup now is very different to prior cycles.

[J Smith @therealjsmith88]

What makes this setup different isn’t just the charts, it’s what’s happening under the surface. The infrastructure is maturing, legislation is progressing, and real use cases are starting to scale.

The Clarity Act passing will be a very big deal, opening the doors for innovation and a new wave of capital at levels the sector has never seen before.

Stable-coins continue to grow, having found product market fit and bringing dollars on chain. That liquidity will flow through the ecosystem to Bitcoin, but especially to DeFi by lowering the barrier to entry.

We’re also in the early stages of an explosion of AI agents that will need crypto rails to transact and verify.

At the same time, Real World Assets (RWAs) are moving on chain, and the infrastructure that enables this will benefit.