JM

Enjoyer of fantasy football and life

[Claude @claudeai]

Fable 5 is back.

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

We’ve received notice that the Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

We'll begin restoring access tomorrow, and will share an update soon.

We’re grateful to our users for their patience, and to everyone who worked with us on redeploying the models.

[Dataroma @ffdataroma]

Parker Washington obviously exploded down the stretch last year (71.1 YPG, 2.64 YPRR from Wk9 on), but I think his overall profile goes a little under the radar.

Washington was an early declare out of Penn State, that produced 489 yds and 6 TDs in just 9 games, breaking out as a an 18 year old freshman in the Big Ten.

It took him a couple years to get going, but he had flashes in year 2 and is still just 24 years old (and will be for the entire 2026 season). I’m completely buying the development arc, current positive coach-speak, and the 2025 breakout.

[JM @TheReturnofJM]

💔

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

Buying the Jaydon Blue & Ryan Flournoy hype:

"The biggest winner of Cowboys OTAs might be running back Jaydon Blue."

"Flournoy could very well be the No. 2 option by 2027. I’m not buying the Pickens departure narrative for this season, but Flournoy’s trajectory is real."

[Dataroma @ffdataroma]

Will be yet another lesson on how talent determines RB workload split, not pattern matching a coaches past backfield usage.

The talent gap between Jeanty and the next best RB in LV is significantly larger than that of Walker/Charbonnet (regardless of your opinions on them)

[Dataroma @ffdataroma]

Ashton Jeanty remains my favorite click at the 1-2 turn:

+ Goes from the stone worst offense in the NFL to the Kubiak system that completely elevated the Seattle offense

+ Incredible prospect (#1 all time in my model that dates back to 2017)

+ Extremely minimal talent behind him so “committee” talks seem overblown, pattern matching usage between different offenses/players (SEA last year) typically does not work out

+ When given space last year (which happened rarely), Jeanty’s numbers looked a lot better. He led the NFL in YACo/Att and was 6th best in stuffed run rate when given 1+ yards before contact.

+ Elite receiving volume as a rookie, 1 of 7 RBs above 70 targets

+ TD equity with the improved system, OL, and QB play in LV should be much higher

I just can’t find anything not to like about Jeanty at this price, RB1 overall seems firmly in his range of outcomes.

[32BeatWriters @32BeatWriters]

"As for the RB2 role, I would give the slight edge to Malik Davis right now just based off last year’s late-season production."

@NickHarrisFWST

PS: Appreciate the kind words, Nick! Love to get you on the pod this year.

https://t.co/DHvlsQEqsW

[JM @TheReturnofJM]

Gunnar Helm mentioned ⬇️

[Start Sit 'Em @StartSitEmFF]

2nd year breakout candidates in fantasy football 🏈

Trying to keep these a little more off the radar - so Luther Burden III and Omarion Hampton are banned.

Keep an eye on these 6 players 🔽

Tyler Shough 🧵

[Josh Carney @ByJoshCarney]

#Steelers HC Mike McCarthy said he's going to open the playbook up for Eli Heidenreich.

Those aren't just empty words. He's done it before for a player with a similar skillset as the Navy standout.

Read more: @Steelersdepot

https://t.co/cCHKDHHtlW

[Travis Hunter @TravisHunterJr]

Now who told you this? 🤔

[32BeatWriters @32BeatWriters]

“At zero point have the Jaguars ever once indicated he will not play both ways, just as he did last year. He will just play more cornerback.”

[32BeatWriters @32BeatWriters]

“Gladstone himself said three months ago what the plan was. He will play more corner, but still play some receiver. This is no real change from a year ago other than the corner and receiver role are inversed. Last year, he played twice as many snaps at receiver than at cornerback.”

[Dataroma @ffdataroma]

The same exact report has come up with Hunter three separate times this offseason, while nothing has materially changed at all.

Still expected to get reps at WR, with several outs to seeing more time on offense (injury to another WR, talent). Could very quickly be a near full time WR again within the year.

At his inevitably dropping ADP (currently round 13/151 overall), he doesn’t even have to be a full time WR to hit also, simply a couple spike weeks out of his “part time” role would make him worth his price. That’s obviously not the goal when drafting him, but the spike week potential (even with limited reps) and the outs to seeing more time by injury or winning out on talent make for a strong late-round dart.

Have to adjust expectations of course, but the ADP bakes those adjustments in and will continue to make Hunter too cheap relative to his upside.

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability.

The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code.

But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along.

So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions.

TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.

[Dataroma @ffdataroma]

Jaylen Waddle is currently shaping up to be one of my biggest stands in drafts.

A highly talented WR and one of the most efficient in the entire NFL (2.4+ yards per route run in 3 of last 4 seasons, 2.7+ in 2 of those), that has fallen victim to some uniquely poor situations for himself in recent years (tyreek crushing + run game exploding in '23, broken offenses last 2 years).

Deployment has been largely static too over the past few years due to plenty of other speedy YAC threats in the Miami offense, but Waddle should have the chance for more YAC opps and designed touches in Denver. Sutton will all but certainly retain the "X" role, allowing creativity in Waddle's deployment in the slot and as a Z (good news for fantasy).

Should be a pretty notable QB upgrade in Denver too, compared to current day Tua. And a notably better offense with that, bumping up his TD equity.

I'm wagering that this is still one of the top WRs in the NFL that was handicapped by environment as of late. The upside feels extremely high for Waddle (who still seems to be/should be in his prime at 27 years old), gives me some 2025 George Pickens vibes. I'm way above ADP in best ball drafts (47.9) at the 4/5 turn, ranking him at 34th overall (3/4 turn).

[JM @TheReturnofJM]

Rip :(

[VikingzFanPage @vikingzfanpage]

Rondale Moore passed away earlier today, per @WLKY. His cause of death is currently under investigation, and an autopsy has been scheduled to determine that.

He was just 25 years of age. Our thoughts are with his family 💜

[JM @TheReturnofJM]

More exhausting and pointless discourse on Travis Hunter. Maybe it’s just because it’s February, but I don’t see how a two-way player playing two-ways is catastrophic news…

On the flip side, he was appropriately valued at rookie drafts last year. Now his price is too low. Buy

[Andy @andy_buckler]

Zay Flowers is the dynasty WR27 on KTC currently Ladd is WR16 and Marv is 18. Head up I think there is 0 reason to take either over Zay right now.

Second Zay Flowers again is just the best value at WR in all of dynasty. Perennial BUY. Like WR27 legitimately makes 0 sense.

[Dataroma @ffdataroma]

And the vast majority are just assuming Travis Hunter isn’t going to play WR, despite the organization saying the opposite and Hunter being an extremely strong WR prospect.

Makes for a likely great buying opportunity right now/in 2026 drafts.