The Roaring Dawg

Disciplined trading and thesis tracking. Every trade runs through the trade Lab. DYOR. NFA.

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

Building an Alva Playbook on $RDDT long. Impressive thesis score @ 7.4

The simple thesis:

Reddit is being re-rated from “weird social media IPO” into a high-margin internet asset with 3 compounding engines:

Ads are finally working.

Q1 revenue +69% YoY. Ad revenue +74%. Performance ads now look like the real unlock, not just brand spend.
AI makes Reddit more valuable, not less
Reddit has one of the best human conversation datasets on the internet. That matters for search, LLMs, and data licensing.

Margins are coming through faster than expected
Q1 adj. EBITDA margin was ~40%. That changes the debate from “can Reddit monetize?” to “how profitable can this model get?”
My RDDT playbook:

BULL CASE
The market starts valuing Reddit closer to a scarce AI-era data + ad platform, not a niche social network.
WHAT I’M WATCHING

DAU growth

ad revenue growth
international ARPU
data licensing updates

Google / AI search impact
whether EBITDA margins hold above expectations

INVALIDATION
If user growth slows, Google/search traffic becomes a headwind, or ad growth decelerates hard, the long setup weakens.

For now, $RDDT looks like one of the cleaner “AI second-order” longs: not selling GPUs, but selling the human data layer AI keeps needing.

Not financial advice.

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

@Paladinccore @ScalpXTrading @ChentoTrades In @ScalpXTrading, just follow Paladin and chento, everyone else is mid

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

Red July = red August? History says nope.

Since 2000, the Nasdaq fell in 42% of Augusts. After a red July: 44%—basically unchanged.

Average August return after a red July: +0.28%.

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

🔗🔗🔗 https://t.co/w0IsVB9Dkz

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

RDDT Long Thesis Lab update:

Score: 7.9/10
Momentum: Improving
Risk Pressure: Low

Fundamentals are backing the story — ARPU $5.23, DAUq +17.3% YoY.

Narrative re-rate: High · Operating proof: High
Read: Thesis strengthening.

Status: strengthening

*copied & pasted straight from the lab

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

Going long @ market open.

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

$MSFT
Yes, that's the ticker.

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

MSFT is down ~25% over the past year. But the operating engine just put up one of its strongest quarters in a while:
• Azure reaccelerated to +40%
• Commercial backlog (RPO) $627B, +99% YoY
• Microsoft Cloud topped $50B for the first time
So is the long thesis strengthening — or just getting louder?
I built a live Lab that tracks exactly that. Not a price call. It re-scores every 6h from sourced data and keeps two things separate: the market believing the enterprise-AI story (narrative) vs. Microsoft's own numbers confirming it (operating proof).
Right now the layers disagree: fundamentals up, tape down, ~$190B of AI capex squeezing margins. That gap is the whole point.
https://t.co/a3BE5nGHHQ

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

$RDDT trade going real good.
And my lab confirms.

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

@cyrilxuq 但是这种leaderboard的问题，��是太多trader说含糊不清的话了，可能涨，可能跌，反正我都对。
我做了一个带有清晰度的排行榜，总喜欢说含糊不清的人，在排行榜的权重会降低，即使显示的收益率可能很高。
Link:
https://t.co/4US879WmDb

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

$wen the run continues.

THE DECIDER

Next session: gap hold + VWAP + pullback volume.

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

@aleabitoreddit https://t.co/KjQtfAPia6

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

Verdict:

Real move.
Plausible meme-squeeze setup.
Fake certainty.
$WEN stays interesting only if regular-session tape confirms the premarket shock.
The playbook automatically updates as the story changes:

https://t.co/KjQtfAPia6

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

$WEN ripping 20%+ and the timeline already has everything:

guaranteed squeeze
$10–12 buyout
110% float locked
Reddit saved Wendy’s
Some of it is real.
A lot of it is air.

I built the hype check:

real move, plausible squeeze setup, fake certainty.🧵

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

The entire setup comes down to the first hour.

If $WEN holds the gap, stays above VWAP, and volume stays hot, the story still has oxygen.

If it fades below VWAP and the chatter just repeats old claims, this is probably a one-candle hype spike.

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

It ranks traders by Call Clarity:

ticker, direction, thesis, timeframe, risk, and price target.

Not a best-trader ranking.
Not a win-rate ranking.

Just: who gives the CLEAREST FREE GAME?

Enough with the vagueposting.

Link here: https://t.co/4US879WmDb

[The Roaring Dawg @Theroaringdawg]

How many times have you seen a trader say “I called it”…

then you go back to their timeline and they either didn’t call sh*t, or it was just: this could go either up or down...

SMH bro need to stop larping.🤬🤬🤬

So I built a FREE GAME Leaderboard.